what a surprise, once again it's the "stats-are-useless-if-they-don't-match-my-bias" argument. the value of one-on-one offense is there if the player can create his own offense at good efficiency, and that explicitly includes an ability to get to the FT line. CJ just doesn't do that. Now, I can't find the Synergy stats at NBA.com that track play types. Of course, that may be because the NBA doesn't use Sportsvue this season last season, CJ was in the 79th percentile in PnR ball handler and isolation scoring. In other words, more than 20% of the NBA were better at those 'one-on-one' plays https://www.blazersedge.com/2018/4/...all-hog-does-it-matter-portland-trail-blazers again, that was for last season but I have seen nothing to indicate that he's doing any better this season he was really weak in off screen plays, and horrible in handoff and transition. If you combine PnR, transition, off-screen, isolation, and hand-off, that was 80% of CJ's shots, shots where arguably he dribbled into them; and he was somewhere around the 70th percentile on that offense. About 30% of the NBA was better. Unfortunately, while he couldn't even crack the 80th percentile in efficiency in any of those potential create-own- offense categories, he was in the 96th percentile in salary if you draw a line at 400 minutes played, CJ currently ranks 103rd in PER; 182nd in eFG%; 190th in TS%; and 157th in winshares/48. Out of the 187 players in the NBA with a box plus/minus of -1.0 or better CJ ranks 181st. And, he ranks 123rd in real plus/minus this all adds up to a big problem when somebody tries to insist that CJ has some magical value that transcends his stats. The reality is this: CJ is 19th in the NBA in salary; he's 17th in the NBA in guaranteed contract balance; and he's 18th in the NBA in FGA's. Yet, when you apply an gauges, other than PPG, that actually tries to measure efficiency and impact, CJ can't crack the top-100 in any of them and except for one, can't even climb into the top-120. I guess it's no wonder why anybody trying to cling to the notion that CJ has great value is determined to ignore stats
Not really argueing the stats here, but how did 400 minutes become the arbitrary line? So far on the years he's at 1532. I honestly have no idea how he ranks if you use 1000 minutes as the arbitrary cut off vs 100 just seems like a weird place to draw the line.
ok...I'll double it to 800 min. That 'narrows' if down to 198 players, which is less than 7 players a team * 85th in PER * 130th in eFG% * 138th in TS% * 107th in assist rate * 112th in winshares/48 * and, in box plus/minus, 142nd of the 145 players who have a BPM of -1.0 or better it really doesn't make it look any better, and that would still be the case if it was 1000 minutes....or 1200 the median is 99th, and the only stat CJ cracks the median is the one most influenced by raw production, and since CJ is 18th in the league in FGA's, his PER is going to get a bump compared to the other gauges
Like I said I wasnt really making an arguement just wasnt sure what the reasoning was for picking 400 minutes. Thanks for the rest of these numbers though.
I think there are three big takeaways for me in this thread I hadn't considered: 1. CJ is probably worth his contract (per yuyuza's stats) for a team that can use him in a Dame role, but it's a very non-obvious move that will get second guessed by everyone for any GM that goes for him BECAUSE.... 2. His current overall stats make him really overpaid by wizenheimer's numbers. 3. It's a valid point that CJ isn't really Crawford in terms of skillset (beyond handles and one-on-one shot creation.) But I stand by my point that in the player arch of where they are in their careers at age 27, they seem to be in a similar space. One other thing I'd add is that our core offense has rapidly changed from "two guards chucking" to "PG/C pick-and-roll." As Nurk's offensive game continues to improve, it's only going to be more of the team identity. We had that other identity for so long that I have a hard time believing we'll ever fully embrace the new model with CJ still around. I have to admit I've wanted to trade CJ for several years now, so I'm not really coming into any new conclusions here. But I do think the argument for trading him only improves as the team evolves (and we use up more of Dame's prime years).
In a CJ trade, I want what OKC got out of Oladipo. Everyone was going a bit mad about how Kevin Pritchard got yet another Pritchslap last year when he landed both Oladipo and Sabonis but now that the the dust has settled, Paul George has shown to be the far superior talent. He has a legitimate shot at first team all NBA this year amongst competition like Lebron/KD/Kawhi/Giannis. If we were to trade CJ, this is my baseline. Use Collins as our Sabonis analog. What disgruntled superstar (who has hinted at possibly leaving in free agency) can we get for CJ+Collins? Anthony Davis is screaming out to me, but he's probably too good.
Lowe suggested it last week, but even if there's a sniff of validity to the idea that Ben Simmons won't last in Philly, I'd be on a call with Elton Brand. CJ/Collins/Simons/ unprotected 2019 1st for Simmons/ Fultz/ Chandler Given their pitiful offensive spacing, I think CJ would be tremendous in a duo with Embiid. And this gets them out of the Fultz contract, who is on the hook for 3 more seasons and at this point is probably just a salary dump. A Simmons/Dame/Nurk trio is a pipedream but fun to think about.
Do NOT deal CJ just for the sake of dealing CJ. He's an excellent player. I think we can make this team work with the right coaching strategies.
"20 games in which CJ has played without Dame over the past three years. CJ is averaging 26.9 pts, 4.9 rebs, 5.3 asts, 2.8 TO in 36.4 mpg. For good measure: I found a TS% calculator. CJ is at 57%." @yuyuza1 ....perfect, thank you. Just what I was looking for and as suspected. CJ would be better as 'The Man'. He does not have that opportunity here and as a #2, his unique ability is limited and by trying to fit a square peg in a round hole, you get some of the issues that many have taken umbrage with. Now, can you get someone back that won't have CJ's scoring ability but that still can score but makes the team better in other ways in terms of ball movement, defense etc?
The irony in that is we all do the same thing with players we want to trade....for. We see the highlights for certain players and not the whole 48 minutes.
Probably, but I get why someone would. I just think AD is a 1000 times better fit with Dame than Simmons is.
Simmons is like Magic redux in my mind. Their rookie year stats are identical. League is trending towards big lead guards/forwards. Big men like Davis are getting marginalized in the new NBA -- he's putting up massive numbers, but still isn't really winning. I feel like 5 yrs from now, Giannis/Luka/Ben will be destroying everyone and become mainstays in the finals every year. He has no jumper outside of 12 feet right now and he's putting up a near triple double nightly on ridiculous efficiency. I still don't get why Philly is building around Embiid and not Simmons. You have to work so hard to get Embiid the ball in crunch time while Simmons can get a board and go. Annnnd, we'd have him on contract for at least 6 more years while AD can still up and leave in 2.
Problem is, the people here who want Carmelo, are probably the same ones who didn't see that Carmelo is the reason the PG trade didn't look great for OKC last year. PG was never the problem, and Oladipo was never the better player. OKC gave up too much depth for a poor fitting piece in Carmelo. The lynching would be immediate here.
it's not going to happen though with Olshey at the helm, but it sure looks like Portland could have at least been competitive when Indiana was shopping PG13. They had CJ and they had three 1st round picks. But of course, Olshey came out and said the Blazers were trying to get PG13 without giving up CJ which is the same thing as saying "we think CJ is as valuable as PG13", which is the same thing as not trying. It was ridiculous then and it's even more ridiculous now certainly, we don't know what value the Pacer front office would have put on CJ + picks vs Oladipo + Sabonis. But it's worth keeping in mind all this was taking place right after CJ had his career year, which is really looking like an aberration. But that was when CJ was at the apex of his trade value. and thinking about which would be better, a Dame-CJ-Nurkic trio or a Dame-PG-Nurkic trio, it's a no-brainer choice, even if it would have cost Zach. And the same it true for Dame-Kawhi-Nurkic, assuming the Spurs had any interest in CJ when Derozan was available; or Dame-Butler-Nurkic but now, expecting the same return that OKC got from Oladipo is loopy....sorry. CJ does not have the value now that Oladipo + Sabonis did then. It's not close. And CJ is pretty obviously overpaid compared to Oladipo. In other words, if that's what you expect and that reflects the thinking in the Blazer FO, then we will have 2 more years of the Dame/CJ pairing, and two more years of Dame's prime will be invested in a back court experiment that pretty obviously isn't working well enough to matter, and likely never will
