Tom Haberstroh: "CJ McCollum is a garbage-time all-star"

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by PtldPlatypus, Mar 14, 2019.

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  1. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelp...arbage-time-all-stars?cid=NBAInsiderNorthwest

    Fun fact: McCollum is a card-carrying member of the 50/40/90 shooting club -- as long as we’re talking about garbage time. (For those who don’t know, the 50/40/90 shooting club is reserved for those who shoot at least 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent from deep and 90 percent from the line. This is the elite of the elite). The Portland shooting guard is shooting 51 percent from the floor, 42 percent from deep and 91 percent from the charity stripe in these blowout situations. He fits the same profile as Thompson -- an elite shooter who rarely gets to the free-throw line. He’s also someone who, until last postseason, had struggled to put up the same caliber of numbers in the postseason as the regular season.

    McCollum is still a super talented scorer in tighter situations (21.4 points per 36 minutes), but he finds himself on this list because both his usage and efficiency rise when the game’s stakes are lowest. This is best illustrated by his whopping 25.4 points per 36 minutes in garbage time. The Blazers would probably benefit by figuring out how to have McCollum more involved in crunchtime simply to lessen the burden on Damian Lillard and make the offense more democratic.
     
    PtldPlatypus, Mar 14, 2019
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  2. B-Roy

    B-Roy If it takes months

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    There is probably a correlation between the two. This may be anecdotal, but usually we blow teams out when CJ gets hot.
     
    B-Roy, Mar 14, 2019
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  3. Cugel

    Cugel The epitome of mediocrity

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    The fact that he's on the same list as Klay and Russ says he's doing something right. Beal is no slouch either; Zach has never been on a decent team.
     
    Cugel, Mar 14, 2019
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  4. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    The article says he gets hot when we blow teams out. Which comes first, the chicken or the egg? What is the direction of causation?
     
    jlprk, Mar 14, 2019
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  5. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    Pretty sure that the last game against the Clippers wasn't decided until CJ torched them in the 4th quarter.
     
    e_blazer, Mar 14, 2019
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  6. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    Yea, how does he, or one define garbage time?
     
    HailBlazers, Mar 14, 2019
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  7. CupWizier

    CupWizier Well-Known Member

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    So, McCollum is an all star then. :bgrin:
     
    CupWizier, Mar 14, 2019
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  8. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    kind of a strange premise, but interesting I guess. This may also have something to do with the notion that Stotts tends to leave his starters in longer in blow-out situations; and CJ may be more inclined to go iso when possessions aren't as important

    probably something to it because CJ ranks 7th on the team in winshares/48 and 8th in BPM. He shouldn't be that low considering he takes about 30% of the FGA's of the starters
     
    wizenheimer, Mar 14, 2019
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  9. stampedehero

    stampedehero Make Your Day, a Doobies Day Staff Member Moderator

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    CJ is a hard worker (when he wants to).
     
    stampedehero, Mar 14, 2019
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  10. Cugel

    Cugel The epitome of mediocrity

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    In order for this statistic to be informative you would have to know:
    1) The score when CJ entered last the game
    2) His performance during this period
    3) The score after he left the game
    This article makes it sound like Stotts puts CJ in during "garbage" time which we know is not true.
     
    Cugel, Mar 14, 2019
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  11. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    So, his PP36 increase by a whopping 4 points in garbage time vs the rest of the time he plays? Fucking amazing. Get this guy a basketball analysis award for this paradigm-shifting insight.
     
    blue9, Mar 14, 2019
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  12. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    One thing that jumps out at me in this article, is that "garbage time" as the author defines it can happen at any time during a game, not merely the end of a 4th quarter of a blowout. So for example, when CJ goes on a hot streak in the first quarter (or any quarter) and pushes the lead to 20 or more points, this article defines that as garbage time. Umm...yeah.
     
    BBert, Mar 14, 2019
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  13. handiman

    handiman Well-Known Member

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    I question the accuracy of that premise. CJ's per-36 numbers aren't much lower in the playoffs than in the regular season.

    FG%: 0.456
    3PT%: 0.402
    FT%: 0.841
    REB: 3.8
    AST: 3.5
    PTS: 21.5

    FG%: .438
    3PT%: .396
    FT%: .822
    REB: 5.0
    AST: 3.0
    PTS: 27.0

    Shooting percentages and assists are down slightly, while scoring and rebounds are way up. You'd expect some drop in everyone's stats when a team loses 10 straight, so I look at those numbers as CJ elevating his game significantly in the playoffs, barely being brought down efficiency-wise by the struggles of everyone around him.

    Also, last year's playoffs helped his 2PT% avg a lot, but not much impact on overall shooting or scoring. So, not only does he not struggle in the playoffs, the last postseason isn't even the saving grace like stated.
     
    handiman, Mar 14, 2019
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  14. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for pointing that out. That's just moronic
     
    RR7, Mar 14, 2019
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  15. CupWizier

    CupWizier Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, that seems a bit strange and then to label it garbage time. When I first saw the headline it looked like it might be an article about players padding stats.
     
    CupWizier, Mar 14, 2019
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  16. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    Like @B-Roy said. There is a huge benefit to CJ having a good game. When he scores well this team is very tough to beat. It's not the other way around. The Blazers create "Garbage Time" by being very very hard to beat when three players are effective. When CJ is hitting shots they cannot guard Dame and Nurk. That is just the way it is.
     
    kjironman1, Mar 14, 2019
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  17. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    Isnt that kind of true for Moe, Layman, Aminu, Hood, etc. Anytime you have someone who isnt your 1st option playing well it helps everybody else.
     
    TorturedBlazerFan, Mar 14, 2019
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  18. B-Roy

    B-Roy If it takes months

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    CJ averages 19.6 points per 36 in the playoffs. You're taking per 100 possessions.
     
    B-Roy, Mar 14, 2019
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  19. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    In fact, what I should have said is any time CJ is in the game while we push the lead beyond 15 points (not 20). He refers to such an event as the game being out of hand and defines a 15 point lead as therefore garbage time. Which is nonsense. Teams routinely go up by 15 or more points, and the other team routinely goes on a run to even the game back up. The only time a 15 point lead in the NBA is garbage time, is when there is mathematically not enough time in the game to make a full comeback. And that is never during the first 3 quarters.
     
    BBert, Mar 15, 2019
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  20. handiman

    handiman Well-Known Member

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    Ah shoot, you're right. Clicking on the anchor links on basketball-reference.com jumps to a spot where the nav banner covers that section's header, and I scrolled down one section on the playoff stats without noticing it.

    https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mccolcj01.html#all_per_minute
    https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mccolcj01.html#all_playoffs_per_minute

    So, the percentages were right but the pts/rebs/ast numbers were off. CJ's scoring (per-36) drops from 21.5 to 19.6 in the playoffs. Still not enough to say he's struggled.
     
    handiman, Mar 15, 2019
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