Its harder than that though, no ones saying pick the worst player available. Grading them out though there will be 15-20ish players who all probably grade out about the same from 15 to early in the 2nd round.
These draft picks is not for next year these guys are replacement for Turner Leonard Harkless contract expiring next year. Yes you have continued make your roster better with veteran but you also have to look for the future. Yes we are in little bit of salary cap bind but add when you can. Now we got Hood Kanter Aminu Curry UFA and Layman RFA this year. We could bring back Aminu and we could bring back Layman. Now between Hood Curry or Kanter who do we bring back I think Olshey will bring back Kanter due to Nurk won't be back until All Star break. Simons will get a crack at Curry rotation minutes and possibly Trent getting Hoods minutes. I feel that Aminu won't be back next year I think he going be Davis casualty by Olshey. I do think Layman will back and another player can take Hood minutes. I think Kanter will take a discount for at least for one year. This is my opinion.
I agree it's not easy, but that's why teams have portfolios of every player imaginable and then do interviews and personal workouts to help narrow it down. We have such a small amount of info compared to what the NBA teams have and when a player never played college or didn't play over seas then it's much more difficult to assess that player.
There's a time to swing for the fences. When the pitch is 3 feet outside of the strike zone is not that time. This is a top heavy draft with a plethora of bad pitches waiting for an over-confident GM to take a wild hack. If the pick isn't moved in a trade, I hope they can find a guy like Cam Johnson who will never be a star, but who knows how to play and has a skill the team can use.
Siakam was thought of as a late 2nd round pick and was thought of as a reach by Toronto at 27 three years ago. He didnt even appear to have Bazelys upside at the time. He was, as you would put it "a bad pitch". Three years later, he won them Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Youre advocating for a Brice Johnson type, who was drafted 2 picks before him, and is now out of the league.
To be fair there are a lot of guys who havent made it in the NBA, who fill both the “high-upside” and “low-upside” types.
Not really but he seems like another Justin Jackson type. Does that make a difference in the long-run? Nope. A guy like Bazley increases our chances of winning a championship in the next 5 years more than Cam Johnson.
Guess we will just have to agree to disagree. I see Bazley as more likely to be the next Darius Miles, while Johnson is over-looked because of his age.
I may be wrong, so sorry if I am, but isn't one of your criticisms of Olshey that he only brings in value type role players and doesn't swing for the fences?
I appreciate his dumpster diving ability - building depth with team friendly deals is a good thing. I do believe, however, that he is not good at making high impact moves. The latter is mostly about trades. When talking about draft picks, the discussion is complicated by the issue of time frame. A long term project is out of sync with where the Blazers are on the success cycle. I see our window of success as being the next 3 seasons or so. (YMMV) We don't need a 5 or 10 year plan....we need a plan to put a better supporting cast around Dame now. Obvious disclaimer: compared to a lot of posters here, I am a borderline ignoramous about the players in the draft. I may be completely wrong about Cam Johnson or the other guys I have mentioned. Maybe no one available at 25 is good enough to help the team in the short run, so we have nothing to lose by going for a long-term project.
I really would like Bazley if we got him--he'd have a redshirt year like Simons did and from what we've seen in Simons it'd be a good bet. These players that would normally be top 18 picks if they played in college fall to us because of lack of game tape. We'd be set up well to let Trent, Simons, and Bazley be our bench squad the year after next season--when our big contracts to Turner, Meyers, and Harkless expire.
Bazley has all the makeup to be really good player. But to me he has to go to the right team. I think we are one of the right team due to our makeup of our team. There others teams out there might be good fit for him.
One of the interesting aspects of the "position/BPA" argument of drafting is the fact that situational fit factors in significantly to how good a player will become. It's conceivable that a player that might be perceived as better/more talented/higher potential might end up in a situation where he might be somewhat marginalized because of the existing roster construction.
Exactly, that's why I don't agree with BPA approach. Let's take Atlanta as an example - if best player available where they are drafting is a point guard, that would get in the way with Trae Young and one of them would not have enough space to develop. If they got a wing, they would immediately get plenty of time which would help their development. Fit is as important as talent IMO. In Portland's situation getting a super talented point guard now would not give that player opportunity to truly do what they should be doing, for example.