Game Thread GAME# 48: ROCKETS @ BLAZERS - JANUARY 29, 2020 - WEDNESDAY, 7:00 PM, ESPN & NBCSNW

Whiteside will want to stay here and he probably will make it attractive by willingness to come off the bench.

 

Isn't it about time for someone to drag up that thread of predictions for this tough 18 game stretch? I'm sure not gonna do it cuz they already have twice as many wins as my maximum prediction.

 

I keep wondering about this? Does he want to be here?

 

you're right....I was kind of blurring distinctions in my brain that late in the day

on the other hand, the baseline for BPM is an average player on an average team; BPM is an estimate of how many points/100-possessions above, or below, that baseline the player contributes. So, I'd think there might be a little bump, or drag, to a players production depending on the quality of his team

it's kind of interesting thinking about that baseline and at the career BPM of current, and past, Blazers:

Lillard +4.2
Batum +2.3
Aldridge +1.5
Ariza +1.4
Nurkic + 1.3
Matthews +0.9
Whiteside +0.8
Melo +0.8
Harkless +0.4
CJ + 0.2
Lopez 0.0
Aminu -0.1
Curry -0.1
W. Barton -0.4
Tolliver -0.6
Hood -1.0
Kanter -1.1
Bazemore -1.2
Meyers -1.3
Collins -1.4
Turner -2.0
Hezonja -3.1

looking at that list, the only one that surprises me is Batum.

and, how good is Dame?

another thing: what the fuck was Olshey thinking last summer?

 

#BringBackFrazier

 

Ariza -------21 points on 14 FGAs
Whiteside - 15 points on 9 FGAs
Lillard ----- 36 points on 21 FGAs
Little ------- 10 points on 5 FGAs
Trent ------- 10 points on 7 FGAs

McCollum - 22 points on 19 FGAs
Anthony --- 6 points on 11 FGS

Such difference in efficiency.

 

CJ and Melo didn’t take many “bad” shots last night. CJ had some bad passes and decisions but his shots were all pretty much in his wheelhouse. Melo just couldn’t hit shots, shit happens.

 

Lillard and McCollum help make others more effecient by demanding more attention from the defense and game planning.

 

Ok, lets look at the season as a whole....

Lillard ----- 1,333 points on 912 FGAs (1.46 p/a)
Whiteside - 687 points on 472 FGAs (1.46 p/a)
Hood ----- 230 points on 172 FGAs (1.34 p/a)
Skal ------- 190 points on 147 FGAs (1.29 p/a)

Trent ------- 202 points on 176 FGAs (1.15 p/a)
McCollum - 952 points on 833 FGAs (1.14 p/a)
Anthony --- 522 points on 466 FGAs (1.12 p/a)
Little ------- 128 points on 115 FGAs (1.11 p/a)
Simons ---- 435 points on 406 FGAs (1.07 p/a)

McCollum & Anthony are right in the middle of a bunch of 1-2 year players.... with "meh" efficiency.

*** I didn't put Mario, Baze or Tolliver on here 'cause we know they suck ***

 

This makes me miss Hood.

 

I disagree. In the game against Indiana CJ didn't go MeJ more than 4 or 5 times. He stayed within the offense and didn't pound ball and burn shot clock. His assisted FG rate in that game was 67%. He scored 1.33 points/shot when his season average is 1.14

last night, he went MeJ way too much and it killed offensive flow. I saw other Blazers standing around and watching CJ. His assisted FG rate last night was 33% (3-9) and he scored 1.15 points/shot. Dame was at 1.74 points/shot; Ariza 1.50; Whiteside 1.67; Trent 1.43; Little 2.00

Apparently, CJ thinks his 'wheelhouse' is iso and going one on one. I guess clever ball-handling creates illusion. But the thing is CJ is not an efficient scorer. His clever ball-handling doesn't yield good efficiency, largely because he can't get to the line, and when he does, he's not that dependable. CJ should not be dominating and stopping the ball as much as he does. He over-dribbles and burns clock for an average result, and with the ball in his hands, the offense doesn't run well because he's a poor facilitator.

CJ's assisted FG rate should be close to 60% instead of the 36% it is. He's good in catch and shoot, spot up, and one dribble moves. But he's bad in iso. How bad? Right now, CJ is averaging 0.86 points per possession in isolation. That puts him in the 47th percentile. That means more than half of the NBA is better than him. Dame is in the 90th percentile, and what makes that even more glaring a difference is that Dame is always facing the best defender and the focus of the defense. CJ drafts off that and is still bad

points/shot:

Dame 1.46
Whiteside 1.45
Hood 1.34
Skal 1.29
Ariza 1.24 (full season; 1.53 in Portland)
Trent 1.15
CJ 1.14
Melo 1.12
Simons 1.07

look at that ranking with the fact in mind that Portland averages, as a team, 1.24 points/shot. Any player below that average should be shooting less in favor of the players that are above that line. But that doesn't happen with CJ...he shoots a ton. He's 14th in the NBA in FGA's....only 13 players take more shots. But he's 152nd in TS%. That's just dumb

 

I’m talking about the shots in general, he didn’t take a lot of what I’d consider bad shots. I do agree that his ball movement and decision making sucks though.

 

Wow. Yeah I am shocked that's Batum's career BPM is that high.

 

I’d don’t know what Olshey was thinking last summer. His moves made us about 9 wins worse based on BPM/RPM and minutes played. It’s even worse than it looks on your list when you take into account that Tolliver is old and much worse than his average would indicate. Also, Tolliver and Hezonja are even worse when you look at their RPM stats. Fortunately Trent, Little, Skal, and now Ariza may be poised to fill in the gaping holes.

 

I think you’d be better off using TS% than points per shot. Probably won’t change the order of your list but it’s a closer reflection of efficiency as it counts possessions used up on FTA and not just FGA.

I agree with your points though. CJ is not that efficient. Melo... I’ll be glad when he’s gone. He sucks but he sucks with style so he’s totally overrated. One thing about CJ though. In the playoffs when it gets much tougher to score... CJ can still score so relatively speaking he becomes more efficient than he is in regular season.

 

This is probably why Vegas and the national media predicted a decrease in our win total, while the locals who wanted a change for the sake of change felt the need to overvalue the moves to justify them.

Our scheme didn't get drastically worse, but the roster (moves and injuries) sure did.

 

"Man I really f'ed us in 2016."

 

Good post....'bigger picture'.

"He's 14th in the NBA in FGA's....only 13 players take more shots. But he's 152nd in TS%. That's just dumb."

That is downright abyssmal and very selfish.