Terry Stotts has been extended

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by illmatic99, May 21, 2019.

  1. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    2016-
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    Terry Stotts, Trail Blazers: Much has been made of Stotts putting the Blazers in position to make the playoffs despite losing four of his five starters in trades or free-agent moves. The thing is, it shouldn’t be that surprising. Stotts did the same thing in Milwaukee in 2005-06, when he took over a Bucks team that had won 30 games, changed four starters (all except Michael Redd) and made the playoffs. “The No. 1 overachiever, far and away, when you talk to anyone out there,” one coaching industry source said. And my pick right now for COY.
    2017-18
    Stotts has the Blazers at 44-26 — third in the crowded, ultra-competitive Western Conference. And they’ve won 13 games in a row — already one of the longest win streaks in franchise history.

    Oh yeah — and the players love him.

    As The Portland Tribune’s Kerry Eggers reports, Lillard especially appreciates Stotts.

    “Every guy who has come through here, they play under him and they have career years because of the freedom he allows you to have,” Lillard said. “The level of comfort he gives guys to be themselves is a great trait to have as a coach.”

    The Competition
    My guess is that Stotts’ competition for the Red Auerbach Trophy are Houston’s Mike D’Antoni and the Toronto Raptors’ Dwane Casey. And if I had any money, it would be on Casey to win the award. Other contenders for Coach of the Year: Boston’s Brad Stevens and Indiana’s Nate McMillan.

    Do i really need to continue this charade? Every year the guy is in the running for COY. Exactly how many more quotes would you like to read?
    Maybe you should just look them up yourself?
     
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  2. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Exactly. Ive heard so many shots at our style of play this year.
     
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  3. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    You can find good things said about every head coach in the NBA, that doesnt mean theyre all good NBA coaches.

    And this is inline with the point I made before. Now were talking about a few quotes instead of whats happening out there on the court.
     
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  4. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    But if were going to run an iso-heavy offense which is by far the easiest offense to run, then lets hire a coach who actually makes a positive contribution on the defensive side of the ball.
     
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  5. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    When they Hired Terry was that a big swing? He had basically flamed out as an NBA Head coach. Any coach they bring in is a risk, keeping Stotts is a risk. Risk is just part of the business. I am not saying they have to go for one of those, just that those are names I think of as people I would like to see get a shot or an interview if I was hiring. Keeping Stotts can backfire too.
    This year, in particular, I don't know if they could get anything out of the roster (at least the roster available) that's much better then they have. My issue is I think his plays are growing stale with this team, the defensive schemes and philosophy has grown stale and I think they need new, I absolutely agree with you new isn't always better, but still, I think there is a lot of value in fresh new ideas. This is an ultra-competitive sport at the highest level and while there have been some years they have done well, I just don't know what he's really done that garnered him keeping the position so long. He's basically been Dwayne Casey or Mark Jackson - That's not to say the Blazers will get someone like Nick Nurse or Kerr it's just that a tough decision to go for someone else doesn't mean Stotts is an epic failure of a human it just means that you're striving for greatness and willing to take risks that you might be uncomfortable with.
    I think you can make an argument Casey and Jackson were also "good" coaches, that just didn't seem to have what it took to get their teams to the next level.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
  6. SIeepwalker

    SIeepwalker The lone sane poster

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    Except if you're Little, Gabriel, Vonleh, Layman, Skal etc. Then you can go fuck yourself
     
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  7. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    Beautiful post.... +1
     
  8. CupWizier

    CupWizier Well-Known Member

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    Of those players and even others that have left which ones have excelled and/or showed grerat improvement after Stotts or at their previous team? Little I will give a pass to as he is a young first year player.
     
  9. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I guess this is the interesting point on the debate:

    What additional context matters and how to evaluate it can be so subjective that either side can take past result and spin them into positives or negatives. I don't have the golden gun, but I'd love to set the context or metrics ahead of time, apply it to a set of future events and see what the result is, that would be way more interesting. Wish I was smart enough to come up with something like that, but so far I have not been able to.
     
  10. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    I like you Tince, you're very respectful in your disagreement and you're right, it is subjective. I enjoy our discussions on this matter.
     
  11. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I think retreads by definition are the lowest risk and it's why you see so many retread in professional sports.

    Someone who has experience being a head coach in the NBA has a track record of how they handle many situation only head coaches get the opportunity to do. Someone who has never lead a group, just been an asssistant or someone who has coached 18 year olds, not 35 year olds has a much steeper learning curve.

    Don't get me wrong, I think that retreads are the lowest risk, but usually have lower ceilings as well. If someone wants us to hire the #1 coach in the NBA, it is unlikely to be a retread. I just also know how poorly non-retreads can go to: See the last 2 we've had in Portland.
     
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  12. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Likewise my friend! People with opposite points of views (such as yourself) challenge my way of thinking and help me see things in a different light.

    We'll probably never fully agree on this Stotts thing, but that's ok too, because I know you and I, like many others on here just want that parade in June for our Blazers! :smiley-beerchug:
     
  13. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I think I can get you a couple audio files that support this.

    I'm curious, what players or coaches are out there who have said anything along the lines that Stotts in inept offensive mind?
     
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  14. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    The top 4 coaches in the league (IMO) are on their first gig, or were successful in their first gig. Pop, Stevens, Nurse, Budenholzer.

    I'd say the reward for first time coaches is greater, because any retread thats available likely has proven to have a ceiling lower than those guys.

    In our position, I think we need to take risks to win a championship, one of those being the coach (even though I think there isnt much downside going from Stotts to most other NBA-caliber head coaches).
     
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  15. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    That's moving the goal post a bit, isn't it? People say he's a bad coach because we flame out in the playoffs. I point out Stotts gets the most of his guys, but we just don't win a lot because of the talent.
    Nobody really presents much of a contrary argument, but now his big flaw is he runs an ISO heavy offense. So I point out his offense is surprisingly good, we just don't win a lot becuase of the talent.
    So because his team doesn't need much coaching skill as an ISO team, and our defense sucks, we should get a new coach.
    I'm happy to address this one too, but I just want to point out people are moving the goal post.

    So let's address his ability to coach defense.

    He basically plays the same defensive scheme that Utah does for the same reason Utah does. Because of the talent. (See a pattern here?)

    Let's back up a little and consider an oft-overlooked aspect of the Blazers' talent strategy. Portland has traditionally had a hard time attracting good free agents. As the league has shifted toward swing men and three point shooters, traditional centers have become kind of a commodity nobody wants. So whereas a decade ago a Nurkic, Kanter or Whiteside would be a premium "get," they're kind of in the bargain bin of the NBA. Olshey lives in that bargain bin, because the only really good talent he has to trade are Dame (untradeable) and CJ (who for reasons that baffle me is also untradeable.) He also drafts 7 footers like Collins and Leonard (and big slow guys like Swannigan) because again, the really good 6'8 guys are basically gone by the time he gets to pick.

    So Stotts is handed plodding 7 footer after plodding 7 footer and is told to make it work. He looks at Utah and sees how they make their plodding center work, and we do the same. Sag the center on the pick and roll and hope our guards and wings fight over screens. In this dropping scheme, the center protects the paint, and only comes out to the perimeter in specific situations (late shot clock, Steph Curry will be left open, etc). It's not ideal, obviously, because the best defensive teams in the modern NBA don't do it. The list I link to is lead by squads with lanky 6'8 guys and switching is the name of the game. Even Utah, a traditionally excellent defensive team, is ranked only 13th. Beefy centers are not the future, but they are what we can get. At least under the current strategy.

    So why is Utah ranked 13th on that list while we are fucking 27th? Well, it *could* be that their coach is a lot better. Or it *could* be that they don't start two guards with terrible defensive reputations. It could also be that half their team isn't injured. It could also be they don't play Mario Hezonja or Carmelo Anthony. (Sorry, Melo, I love ya but you were never a stopper, and it's getting worse.)

    If you fire Stotts and get another coach without changing our GM, that coach will also probably be stuck with bigger slower centers, and we'll be forced to play a dropping center scheme. And our defense will continue to be mediocre at best. Because if Olshey has proven two things in his tenure, it's that he likes his slow 7 footers and he ain't trading CJ for anything, including somebody who can play defense.
     
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  16. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I totally agree with this. Retreads have a lower ceiling. We're highly highly unlikely to be able to get on of the top 3 coaches to leave their siutation to coach us; so if you're an all-or-none type guy who wants the #1 coach, retreads are a BAD option.

    On the flipside, coaches with no NBA head coaching experience can absolutely bury a franchise into the ground. I guess I'm paranoid based off our last 2 hires of coaches with no NBA head coaching experience. Also, I can't say I trust Olshey to find the rare coach with no NBA experience who is ready to be a top 3 coach. He strikes me as a guy who is going to hire people within his agency to further his career, etc.
     
  17. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Utah should be much better than 13th with that roster. Sounds like an indictment of the scheme.

    Also, I've seen Whiteside hedge and do a great job. Ive seen similar centers effectively hedge, trap, and ice screens effectively. The "our centers arent mobile enough to do anything but sag" narrative is false and seems like just another excuse for Stotts to not switch things up.

    But beyond that, our players take horrible angles through screens and dont go under on players they should. Also, our team has always been a much worse in defensive transition than they should be. Maybe somebodh has stats that show differently, but it seems to me weve always struggled defending in transition.

    Also, Stotts has better defenders available, but still chooses Hezonja. Makes you wonder what he truly values...

    I could go into much more detail on this but I dont have the time to type it all out. You should tune in for our live postgame show and I'd be glad to have a more in-depth conversation.
     
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  18. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Stotts isn't particularly innovative, but it's hard to say he's underperformed given the level of talent he's had to coach. When he had a balanced, talented team (with Aldridge, Lillard, Matthews, etc), they looked like a power until injuries ravaged the team. Since then, he's had some okay rosters and some pretty poor ones--getting to the WCF, even if they got a more fortunate draw, was definite overperformance. I definitely believe they knocked off a superior team in the Nuggets. And while the Thunder were overrated (especially on this forum), the Blazers played them pretty perfectly from a scheme standpoint.

    Nothing in the results suggests to me that Stotts is below average as an NBA coach. It's more fun to have a coach that seems like a genius through exciting and novel schemes and strategies, but that's hardly necessary. Popovich has rarely innovated--in fact, he's actively resisted some of the innovation in the pace-and-space era. He's succeeded through being a rock-solid coach who has always put his players in the best position to succeed. Stotts isn't Popovich, but the point is that you don't judge a coach by how clever or new his schemes are, but by the results he coaxes out of the talent he has. Stotts, IMO, has been no worse than average at that and arguably above average at it.
     
  19. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    I think it kind of is, to be honest. Teams are just jacking up so many three pointers now that honestly, I don't know that even a defender like Gobert will have a place in the playoffs anymore. I know that when Portland plays Utah I really don't worry about Gobert. I know Dame is going to hunt him out and light him up with three pointers, or drive right by him if he comes out. I think a lot of teams maybe don't have a guy like Dame, but they have guys that are good enough.

    Ugh. I can't stand Hezonja. But I also can't stand that the options coming off the bench for 6'8 guys is basically him or d-leaguers. I'd rather roll the dice on just playing Little, even if he is under-sized. But maybe Stotts doesn't want to put too much pressure on him or something.
     
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  20. Terry Stotts

    Terry Stotts Verified

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    Set aside my record, and my accomplishments, and my accolades. Pretend I am an unknown with no history to gauge me on. Just watch how my team plays, with no concern for wins and losses. What do you see? Do you see 5 guys working together to create ball movement and misdirection? Or do you see one guy with the ball and 4 other guys mostly standing around the perimeter, or maybe swapping positions around the perimeter?

    I'll be honest with you guys. I really don't have a clue how to use more than one guy at a time. I'm really lucky to be able to give the ball to Dame and tell everyone else to just get out of the way and shoot if the ball gets passed to them. Basketball if a pretty simple sport when you have a guy like Dame!
     
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