Politics Coronavirus Politics Edition!

Easy to do when he keeps raising the bar.

 

You think the death toll will be lower? I think it will be quite a bit higher perhaps over 200,000. We will see a second, maybe higher, wave in the Fall especially when combined with the flu. The flu will cause significant over crowding in hospitals. And then there's the issue of loosening the social distancing rules.
I predict that this will be a harsh learning experience.
This is why we all need to pray for an early success of a promising candidate for a vaccine currently being studied at Oxford. We need a vaccine because herd immunity means an awful lot of deaths.

 

Poquito espanol?

 

That's my biggest fear...I hope I'm wrong but I think the virus will come back with a vengeance.

 

I’m not sure yet. The mortality is uncertain with the CDC vetting the deaths from the death certificates. They say they are behind about 2 weeks from the real time reporting. The CDC tracker is at 37k deaths, but two weeks ago, the real time tracker was at 41k. That’s about 4K lower than the real time tracker.

 

His bar was at 240k last month. The Administration is always basing their estimates to the failed IHME model.

 

Hmmm...raising the bar by lowering the bar. Sounds like something he'd do.

He's also pointed to lower numbers in the past, not to mention pimping "miracle drugs". He'll also probably point to the higher number he ever predicted in order to make him look even better.

Besides, if as you put it, "The Administration is always basing their estimates to the failed IHME model.", isn't that kinda dumb on their part? I mean why keep using a certain model if it it has indeed been proven "failed" info in the past?

 

His estimates have always coincided with the IHME model. That model has been going up and down throughout this pandemic. The miracle drug has nothing to do with this topic, so let’s not roll around in the weeds.

Yes, his Administration was stupid to follow such a failed model as the IHME, which I already said.

 

He's been all over the place...among other inane comments/predictions, his absolute best was his claim that the virus would "miraculously disappear"...there is no way to defend his incompetence.

 

That was the model that predicted 2.2 million deaths without mitigation, 140-240k deaths with mitigation just a month ago. They were even more outlandish with the ICU beds and hospitalization estimates. Like 4-5x over in estimations.

mags

 

I do enjoy the “yeah but” responses. Let’s just agree that the IHME estimates were dead wrong. I can agree that the Trump Administration were fools to put faith in such a broken model.

 

Nah, Trump wouldn't intentionally do that...would he?

 

They were simply "estimates", Trump was the one who decided to exacerbate them by spewing them to the American public.

... So where's he getting his numbers from now, and how long before they will be deemed dead wrong?

 

here's a radical idea: maybe a president shouldn't spend any time guessing about the number of dead Americans under his watch.

I saw Fauci talk about it a month ago and he estimated as 100K-240K, which is a pretty wide range. But he was also careful to add several qualifiers to that estimate because he said data was always changing, being updated, and being better understood. He also talked about the mitigation of the mortality as we develop treatments and a potential vaccine. In other words, he estimated, and cautioned, like someone trained in public health. Like somebody who knew what he was talking about. That's part of his job. It's not trump's job and he shouldn't be babbling about it like some hyper-caffeinated blogger

 

For the 100k deaths?

 

That’s right. Dr. Fauci used the IHME model for those estimations. Trump was using the same one, based on what Fauci told him.

like I said, they were fools believing such a failed model.

 

100,000-240,000 is kind of looking like a good estimate right now. We'll probably cross the 70,000 threshold today, and that would be 69,000 in 6 weeks. How many weeks are left to this? 30? 50? 100? I'm not seeing the failure because I can't see where the end of this will be

besides that, my point was that trump shouldn't be the one guessing about mortality, especially when he's making a different guess every 4 or 5 days.

 

He isn’t guessing. Those statements are based on the pandemic team, who based theirs on the faulty models.