Science Covid Vs. the Flu....apples to oranges?

Discussion in 'Blazers OT Forum' started by wizenheimer, May 17, 2020.

  1. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    first off, I apologize if the mods think this should be in the Corona thread

    but since the Covid vs flu comparison has become such a flash point, and is being heavily used by trump and the open america crowd, I thought this article was rather foundational, and it educated me on just how those seasonal flu numbers come to be

    I also think as trump & the R's begin their campaign of disputing the Covid mortality numbers we should keep in mind that if the same 'standards' they want to use are applied to flu mortality, those flu numbers would be as little as 1/10th of what they are each year

    https://blogs.scientificamerican.co...u-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
     
  2. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    I think the mortality rate of Covid-19 is actually lower than the flu, but it’s infectious rate is vastly higher. That means COVID-19 is actually much deadlier to a population because the sheer numbers of infected cause more death.
     
  3. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    If that's what you think, I hate to break it to you, but you'd be wrong about that. In fact, you'd be waaaaaaaay off.

    I know people love to point out the # of deaths from the flu, but they fail to point out the # of people who got the flu and then talk about the # of people who died from it.

    So far, the # of people who have caught Covid19 is about 1.5 million, and 85K deaths.

    The yearly average # of people who get the flu is significantly higher than the reported # of people who have caught Covid 19, and even then their #'s are significantly lower.

    "(During the current flu season, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that there have been 39 million to 56 million flu illnesses and 24,000 to 62,000 flu deaths in the U.S., although that number is an estimate based on hospitalizations with flu symptoms, not based on actually counting up every person who has died of flu.)

    The new coronavirus disease, COVID-19, has caused more than 1.4 million illnesses and 85,000 deaths in the U.S. as of May 14, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
    ...
    Both COVID-19 and the flu are respiratory illnesses. But COVID-19 is not the flu. Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu."
    (source: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html)


    No matter how you mix up the #'s, the death rate for Covid19 is significantly higher than the Flu.

    So, not only are you wrong about what you "think", you're like wrong to a magnitude that is actually difficult to explain in terms that are't laughable.
     
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  4. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    The flu death rates are over a whole season. The majority of the Covid-19 deaths happened within a months time.
     
  5. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    None of those factor the antibodies tests from USC, Standford, New York and Florida, where it’s estimated that 50-85x more infections.
     
  6. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    I agree, which helps validate low mortality % = High infection rate.
     
  7. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Which relates to anything you said, how exactly?
     
  8. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    No it doesn't! Do you understand how math works?!

    1.5 million people and 85K deaths is a significantly higher death rate than 39-56 million and 24-62K deaths.
     
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  9. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    50-85 x 1.5 million is well over
     
  10. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    The FLU has a low mortality rate and high infection rate. Covid 19 has a significantly higher mortality rate and a higher infection rate.
     
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  11. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    image.jpg
     
  12. CupWizier

    CupWizier Well-Known Member

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    That's just it, we are only 2 months into this crap and during the season where the flu is negligible. It scares the crap out of me what it might be like come winter time when the flu makes it rounds and we don't have covid 19 under control yet.
     
  13. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Except the antibodies testing says otherwise. Amazingly, all different areas: USC, Stanford, NY, and Florida test results the same.
     
  14. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    You don't seem to know how to figure this out.

    If there are 1.5 million known cases and 85K deaths, vs 39 million and 59K deaths, which one has a higher death rate?

    The one where 39 MILLION people get infected and 59K die, or the one where 1.5 MILLION people get infected and 85K die?

    It's pretty simple math there.

    One is .0015% and the other is .056

    I'll let you figure out which one is bigger.
     
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  15. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    You keep losing track of the USC, Standford, NY and Florida antibodies test studies stating infection rates are 50-85x higher than what’s reported.
     
  16. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    You're doing a good job of showing you don't actually know what you're arguing here. None of that matters when it comes to death rate. It's how many people died vs how many people got infected. It's simple.

    "the ratio of deaths to the population of a particular area or during a particular period of time, usually calculated as the number of deaths per one thousand people per year."

    No where does it matter about antibodies testing. It's the death rate.
     
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  17. magnifier661

    magnifier661 B-A-N-A-N-A-S!

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    Would you like the links to all the studies? I have them.
     
  18. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    That has nothing to do with death rate. 1.5 million known cases and 85K deaths.

    You can make up all the shit you want, but that doesn't change things.

    You have the right to your own opinions, you just don't have the right to your own facts.
     
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  19. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    What?

    62,000 deaths out of 56 million infected by the flu is 0.001%

    85,000 deaths out of 1.5 million infected by Cotonavirus is 0.056%

    Not even close
     
  20. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Linking them won't all the sudden make them matter.
     
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