Would you trade CJ for Doncic?

yeah....a lot of people said things that turned out to be super wrong. That's the problem when predicting the future. But none of us are paid 3 million a year to get things right

 

As a layman who doesn't get to see these guys in person like a GM does. I'd almost always take the proven nba player over a prospect I definitely voted no, not out of a deep seeded love for CJ, but that's just how I generally think.

 

PG13 > PG 9?

 

in my view, the problem is that at the time of that draft, it was clear what kind of player CJ was, and what he wasn't. He does not have anywhere close to the value of a top-5 pick, then or now

CJ will never be elite and he will never be superstar, maybe not even al all-star. A top-5 pick has that possibility

 

a top 5 pick also has the possibility of being a heck of a lot worse than cj.

 

sure...so what? Every top draft pick entails risk. That's the nature of the draft. But there is also the potential of a giant reward. That's what alters trajectories of teams. CJ can't do that now, and he couldn't do that then. Some people were overrating him in this thread. Some weren't. He's the playing-it-safe option, but that's also the stay-the-same-level-as-a-team option

 

I wouldn't trade CJ now for a top 5 pick either. It has nothing to do with over-rating cj. He's like a what 10-20th best SG in the league, for a question mark that could set your team back for years, if they don't pan out.

 

I wouldn't trade CJ for a pick. I would tell him at the end of the season that 2.6 FTA per game is not going to get it done as the team's second scorer. He should spend the off-season studying how Harden draws fouls. He gets 11.8 per game and that's a huge difference.

 

so yeah...you are saying you wouldn't trade CJ for a chance at drafting Doncic

 

Course there's also the chance I draft Adam Morrison.

 

yeah, and there's a chance your wife will leave you, stay single, or that you'll get hit by a truck tomorrow, stay in bed, or that your daughter will run away with a tattoo artist. There's a chance you'll choke on your next bite of food too, probably a higher chance if you're thinking about your daughter and her inked up boyfriend

I'd risk a morrison for a chance at a Doncic, 11 times out of 10

more than that, you'll never convince me any team would trade a #3 pick for CJ, now or in the past.

 

Yes but you openly hate CJ - or at the very least really, really dislike him - So you'd probably trade him for a piece of toast (I know that's hyperbole lol).

I'm totally ok with trading CJ, but most re-drafts have him as a top-five pick that year.
There are risks I'd take, but a player that would start on most NBA teams for a top-five pick is just not one of them for me.

https://clutchpoints.com/redrafting-the-lottery-of-the-2013-nba-draft/
https://www.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/2013-nba-redraft/
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2888254-re-drafting-the-2013-nba-draft-class

There's just so many picks that don't work out...

 

I'd trade McCollum for a pick if I thought that pick was a tremendous prospect. I'm okay with the chance I get nothing--if the team gets nothing, they go from non-contender maybe-playoff team to non-playoff team. Being an 8 seed isn't greatly more exciting to me than being a 9 or 10 or 11 seed. The term "playoff team" seems to have a resonance or aura of success that it doesn't deserve in basketball...making the playoffs in basketball isn't the same as making it in baseball or football; so many teams make it in basketball that it can still mean you're a mediocre or below-average team.

Portland is a mediocre team that, based on variance, can be above average or below average in a given season. I'd rather take the shot at getting another superstar to team with Lillard over sticking with an non-ideal-fit decent player, like CJ. If the risk craps out, the team missed out on another few years of mediocrity--not a disastrous loss.

 

If you’re going to trade CJ for a pick, you may as well trade Dame too. Dame is 30, in the prime of his career, and wants to win now. I can’t imagine him being okay with the Blazers trading his best friend and second best player on the squad for a rookie who may pan out in 2-4 years.

 

It would probably depend. If that rookie pans out immediately, like Doncic, he may not be quite so burned up about it.

 

To be able to draft Luka, I would have done anything possible (outside of trading Dame) to get a top pick. I wouldn't have traded CJ to get any of the other top players in that draft.

Just like this draft - I dont see anyone with trading up for

 

This year for sure they were mediocre (probably worse) for a majority of the year, but I think some of that was simply injuries, maybe its an excuse? Last year they were a good team definitely above average most of the year. Like I said, I dont get to see combines in person, so just seeing some tape of a guy like Doncic or anyone really I wouldnt trade CJ for that because Ive seen so many guys I thought would be good, end up being bad. If I saw someone in person and thought wow this guy is going to be special yeah Id probably trade CJ. Typically though the draft is very hit or miss. So as someone who will probably never be invited to watch a prospect work out in person, Id almost always say no to trading a legitimate starter for a pick. I understand risk analysis and why others might be more aggressive, but thats just not really how I would do it as my arm chair GM.

 

What about CJ for the next Luka in avidja

 

Well, yes, they were above average last year. That's what I meant about how they can bounce up or down a bit due to variance. But over the course of the Lillard-McCollum years, they've basically been mediocre. Some slightly better years (last year being the apex of that, where they parlayed being above average into a run through the weaker half of the Western playoff bracket before running into the Warriors) and some slightly worse years.

For me, it's all about risk/reward. Am I risking a lot? Is there a high reward potential?

When it comes to McCollum, I don't believe I'm risking a lot. Earlier in this thread, you used (as an argument for McCollum) that he would start on most teams. I agree with that--but that just means he's a good starter. Not a star, certainly not a superstar. A good starter has value, of course, but if you were to lose a good starter for nothing, it's not a crushing blow. It would suck, but it's not a franchise-altering event.

When you're talking about a top-tier (especially generational) prospect, the reward potential is very, very high. Now, I think the word "generational" is thrown around way, way too much. People in this thread were talking about guys like Porter Jr. as a generational talent, which was insane. I've heard people say that Kyrie Irving was a generational prospect, etc. "Generational" means once-a-generation. That's rare. Even by that rare definition, Doncic qualified--many believed he was the best European prospect ever (Sabonis probably deserves mention, but people may be disqualifying him because he was never really likely to come over as a young man) and his success and skill level at a tremendously young age backed up that talk.

I wasn't really posting when this thread was started, so I have no participation back in the day--so anything I say could be viewed as suspect, but despite that, I would absolutely have endorsed a McCollum for Doncic swap, even at the cost of absorbing Parsons' contracts. For the reasons given above--McCollum can light it up, but he tops out as a good player. If you trade him for Doncic and Doncic busts, you're a worse team but you didn't cost yourself anything you can't ever get again. If Doncic pans out, you've gotten a player the quality of which you probably won't see again on the team for a long, long time.

Winning a championship is hard--you have to win some bets to do it. It's not possible to win one playing it safe.