I was stumbling around basketball-reference due to CJ's hot start and I noticed that BR added an adjusted shooting section. At first I was quite confused but looking deeper I think there are a few stats that can help evaluate how good of a scorer someone is, those being FG Add and TS Add. I'll post an explanation on reddit that explains it better but the TL;DR is that we want to compare a players shot attempts to the average shot attempt for a player across the league using a players eFG% and TS%. FG Add and TS Add try to measure the cumulative points gained/lost over the course of a season based on a player's shooting percentages vs. an average shot attempt. It's a very simplistic attempt to quantify efficiency that shouldn't be used on its own to determine a player's worth. It ignores a lot of context specific factors like a player's role in the offense, teammates, etc. It's also going to favor bigs who shoot nothing but dunks and layups, and penalizes volume scorers. Nevertheless, I think it's still a useful tool that can be used as part of the evaluation process. I was curious how good CJ has been so far compared to his historical numbers, and wow, it's night and day. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mccolcj01.html For the last three years, CJ has been a significant negative in terms of scoring generation: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mccolcj01.html He posted TS Add of -67.5 last year, which is third worst on the team behind Carmelo Anthony and Anfernee Simons. Over the course of his career he is a -36.6 in terms of TS Add. By comparison, Dame is +800.5. Carmelo is +95.8 for his career, but he was -68.2 last year and a whopping -132.6 with OKC in 17-18. He's also been a negative since 14-15. In fact, if we look at adjust shooting numbers across the league: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020_adj_shooting.html -68.2 puts him ranked 506/529 in the league. (Melo is 507). In terms of volume scorers, it makes him one of the worst in the league. It's also interesting seeing the rankings compared to the rest of the team, to maybe help with shot distribution. For example in 17-18: https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2018.html#all_adj-shooting 1. Dame: 124.8 15. Nurk: -59.4 (Just awful for a center) 16. CJ: -64.4 (YIKES) Sidenote: It's no wonder the 18-19 team was the best offensive team in the Dame era: https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2019.html#all_adj-shooting Almost everyone was a positive or just a slight negative. This year he is 45/432. It's also a cumulative stat so games played so it's going to favor players with more games played. (Although Harden is #1 with about half the games played as everyone else, LOL) https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2021_adj_shooting.html Either way, this is the level of efficiency he needs to sustain for the Blazers to be good. I'm very happy with his offense and playmaking so far this season. Looking forward to seeing him sustain it. The post that explains FG Add and TS Add:
One of the things that drives me nuts about CJ is the difficulty of his shots. How many times do you see him go 1 on 3 and put up some insane floater from the free throw line?
Cool thanks! I've often wished CJ would shoot more 3's him being 40% for his career. This year he is confident taking 3's he would have passed up before. I've noticed that when a player starts to take a 3 then second guesses and turns it down, it often results in a turn-over... either he picks his pivot foot up early or a teammate gets a 3-second call, or he passes to a guy who simultaneously cuts inside for a rebound. So I'm glad to see CJ letting them fly. So far it's done wonders for his efficiency though we can't expect him to continue hitting 46%.
You probably won't see this, because you don't like me, but that's actually the beauty of his game. CJ is essentially un-guardable when dialed in, and the higher the stakes, the more that slippery ability to create matters. People who love basketball tend to appreciate it. People who focus on stats and efficiency tend to hate it. You routinely state how much you hate the NBA and lately even the Blazers, so it's no surprise you hate CJ.
Best part about CJ so far is that he’s taking more three pointers. I think he could be even more efficient if he was used as a Klay/Redick (less ballhandling, more spot ups) but this will do. And yes, I’d still trade him for Harden in a second.
I've been harping for years now that CJ's ability to create his own shot is way overrated, and that he should have an assisted FG rate of 60% or higher instead of 35%. He's not efficient at all when he's going one-on-one I'm also skeptical he'll continue shooting and passing like he has been, but maybe he's seen the light
The thing is, he makes shots way harder than they need to be. And if he absolutely needs to put up a tough shot, pass the fucking ball.
Like him or not CJ has played well this year. I really don't care what the stats and advanced metrics say. This year they are 0-5 without him.
1) This may be why Olshey "won't" trade CJ - other GMs know about this. 2) CJ has been much better this season - more 3s are good. 3) I think I like CJ's "new" role - get him the ball when there are 10 or less seconds to go in the shot clock. Otherwise, CJ passes.
I feel like theres a ton of context that's missing from that stat (which you noted) that is important for making CJs case.
I'm really against making a case with stats. To the point where i'm almost "Knee Jerk" critical. They serve a purpose for sure but i have a hard time watching a game and knowing what i am seeing, then having someone tell me I watched something different because the stats say otherwise.
CJ is a gun slinging guard in a league that plays run and gun play ground ball. I do get frustrated at times when he wants to iso aND DRIBBLE so much, but I get frustrated when Dame FIRES up heat check shots from 35 in a close game. when every possession is critical.
I was just joking about your “this year they are 0-5 without him” which is kind of like a stat. Though I don’t know what 0-5 means since we haven’t lost 5 games. Preseason? I disagree though I think stats are a great starting point. They are measurements. But of course you do have to factor in what they overstate, what they understate, what they completely fail to capture, and what you see. I think there are biases in game-watching just as there are in stats.
Record is 3-2 right now. Yes i guess record is a stat. So irony is thick for sure. They have played 5 games. CJ pretty much carried them against both the Rock-etts and the Lakers (Albeit GT played well). Lillard didn't show until the second half of the GS game. Without CJ they lose all five games.
CJ is essentially unguardable when dialed in. The issue has been when he isn't dialed in an continues to hoist up off-balance, difficult shots against multiple defenders while teammates are wide open. That said, he is FINALLY playing at a much more efficient rate this season which is all many of us have been asking for....for years.
Shooters gotta keep shooting. To argue against that shows a disconnect between fandom and athlete/coach.
