Game Thread GAME# 44: BLAZERS @ HEAT - MARCH 25, 2021 - THURSDAY, 4:30, TNT & NBCSNW

I said something similar in another thread...but, Stotts is not the only stubborn, by the numbers coach. CJ was ripping Miami's defense apart tonight. They single-covered him with average defenders. They did that so they could double and trap Dame most of the night, even though Dame couldn't throw the ball in the ocean

all game long Miami was focused on Dame. I wish the Blazers ran a little more motion offense to take advantage when a defense does that, but I guess it's not in the playbook

Dame time came a bit early tonight. Dame got his 4th Q rest and Portland got blitzed 19-9. Dame returns and Portland blitzed back, 25-12....although Kanter scoring 8 points off 3 offensive boards sure helped

 

Damn, people sure get nasty after a Blazers win.

For the record I have studied statistics. But in sports a great player skews stats. Blazers won games they statistically should not have because of Dame.

 

I know exactly how stats work. I also know they always can be proved wrong. Always.
Basketball is a game. If stats could tell the story people wouldn't watch it.

 

That’s exactly right. Dame is skewing the stats. That just shows how great and historical Dame’s season is having. But when Dame has a bad game you have no chance. Look at the Dallas and Brooklyn games, Dame has a bad game and you get blown out of the building and lose to a team missing 2 superstars. This is even more critical come playoff time when each game is more valuable. Dame has a bad game in the playoffs and the Blazers lose. So you pretty much have 6 games to win 4 instead of 7 games to win 4.

 

Prove this wrong then. Name a team that has ever made it to the conference finals with a negative net rating.

 

They're a 7th place team that's 23-19. That's as close to average as it is to good.

 

So you think coaches call timeouts for what, fun?

 

no...it's so we can all run to the internet and post snarky comments about the action, and still have time to grab a beer

 

Too many minutes you could see by his shots his legs were clearly gone in the 4th. I saw it why didn't the coach. It would be one thing if he was there to be a decoy, but they were setting him up to be a primary scorer.

Amazing performance in the first half though. It's so nice having someone to take some pressure off Dame.

 

To answer your question directly, I would guess that no, coaches are not calling timeouts for fun.

I can only speculate each coaches reasons for calling timeouts. I think it's safe to assume most are following the practices of the previous coaches they worked under. Reasons a coach might call a timeout could include: Retain possession, prevent a turnover, make a substitution, review a play, provide rest for players, to advance the ball, to change strategies, etc.

As you know, if there is a theory out there, I'm interested if there is data to support to disprove that theory. On this topic, I've read two studies that come up with slightly conclusions. The stronger of the two in saying timeouts have value, said that over the next 10 points, the team that called timeout was likely to score like 0.2 points than their opponent. That certainly isn't nothing, but it's not big either. The other pointed out that the immediate possession was likely to see an uptick in offensive success, but that after that, there appeared to be no benefit from the timeout. Maybe it's that first possession that leads to the additional 0.2 points of the next 10? I don't know.

This leads me conclude that saving timeouts for the end of games might have more of a positive impact, but I'm not sure. I've seen coaches like Pop & Kerr decline to call timeout late because they like the matchup on the floor and either don't want to allow the opposing team to sub or set their defense. The theory makes sense to me, but I don't know the results there.

I agree with you that almost all coaches call timeout during an opponents run at some point. I just haven't seen anything that backs up this being a meaningful strategy mid-game to turn the tides around.

Slightly off topic, but the icing the kicker strategy in football is a good example of coaches doing something because they've seen it done, the theory makes sense, but the data does not back it up. Just because the majority of coaches do something, does not mean that it's the optimal strategy. Football coaches punt on 4th down far more often than they should. Do they do this for fun? Again, I doubt that is the reason.

 

Pops is notorious throughout his career for using timeouts as soon as the opposing team even seems like it’s going on a run. It is effective, especially in road game atmosphere.

 

I don't have the data on Pop or any specific coach, so I'll have to take you at your word. I'm assuming you don't have any data to back it up either, correct?

I have seen Pop call a timeout in the first 2 minutes of a half or something. Again, I have nothing to reference to determine if it's a successful strategy for him. I think it would be hard to credit this strategy to them winning championships.

 

So did you think this team was going to make it to the conference finals? Really? Here's your Stat. Maybe but probably not.
Stats are a tool like anything else that you use. I'm sure you use your tools well and i can appreciate that.
If the Blazers happen to make the conference finals this year and have an overall negative net rating it will be easy to manipulate the reason with another stat. "Oh well since Nurk came back their overall rating changed". You see where this goes.
Hope you enjoyed the win vs the Heat. A month ago that win was improbable. On 3/25/21 at about 6:45 PM pacific time Ariza fouled Lillard with 1 second remaining and this game was in the bag. It's why we watch sports.
How about the championship two years ago that wouldn't have gone to the Raptors if not for a lucky bounce in the semi's against Philly. They don't even make the conference finals without that shot?
Now would you like to talk about Lebron James?

 

But as it stands they are absolutely a playoff team and they are currently 4 games over .500 in the west.
Dallas is a dangerous team no matter how you cut it.

 

Your right but it's wasn't his defense that save our ass it was his offense rebounding that save our ass.

 

Hell CJ even admitted it his post game with TNT.

 

Man, Hood and Nas on defense is night and day

 

No question.
Little might be the very piece that can move this franchise forward in the next couple years.