Game Thread GAME# 51: BLAZERS @ JAZZ - APRIL 8, 2021 - THURSDAY, 7:00, NBCSNW

I'd like to quibble with that statement a little....without getting personal about personnel...

the RoCo + Powell > Aminu + Harkless is probably a true equation, if for no other reason that RoCo appears to be the best player of the group. But RoCo + Jones isn't significantly better that the 2019 pair and that was the combo in place for most of this season

that also ignores what could be an issue with Powell as the starting SF. IMO, he's too small....not so much generically, but as a part of the Dame-CJ-Powell trio. They bring great offense (with an awkward mesh) but, IMO, have defensive deficiency that can't be overcome by 'effort'. Powell is certainly a better defender than the Blazer guards, but he's not as good on that end of the court as many of the claims made at the time of the trade.

something else too, is that in the RoCo vs Aminu comp, all the advantages don't go to RoCo. Aminu was really good at defense too; he was stronger and did a better job against the bigger PF's, and he was a better rebounder

but more than all that is another equation: That 2018-19 team had Turner + Curry + healthy Hood + Zach + Layman + Meyers coming off the bench. The current team has Melo + Kanter + Trent (Jones recently) + unhealthy Hood + Simons. That is a defensive mismatch of epic proportions

the current roster is well short of that 18-19 roster on the defensive end. That earlier roster also had the advantage of playing 2-3 years together

that's not to say Stotts shouldn't be unemployed, he should be gone for sure; but so should the guy who hired him and engineered the roster

 

* ok...this is not so much hammering Olshey as it is whining about what could have been

Portland could have pivoted all kinds of different directions from managing that 2017 draft better. They entered the draft with the 15th, 20th, & 26th pick (that 26th pick came from taking on Varejao's contract several years before. That might be the most expensive non-lottery pick in NBA history....for Caleb Swanigan)

so, looking at the draft, Portland could have:

* still moved up, drafted Donovan Mitchell at 10; drafted Kyle Kuzma/Derrick White/Thomas Bryant/Dillon Brooks at 26. Seen what they had and traded CJ for a major upgrade in the front court

* still moved up, drafted Bam Adebayo at 10; drafted Kyle Kuzma/Derrick White/Thomas Bryant/Dillon Brooks at 26

* stayed where they were and drafted John Collins at 15; drafted Jarret Allen/Og Anunoby at 20;
drafted Kyle Kuzma/Derrick White/Thomas Bryant/Dillon Brooks at 26

an imaginative GM could have used that 2017 draft as a springboard to a major roster upgrade

 

I have a feeling it's not going to matter at that point. There's 21 games left. We might only win 7 of those games.

 

So your looking at 37-35 record at the end of season.

 

I think that's very possible, maybe even likely.

We have 5 games against Utah, Phoenix, Denver and LAC. Those teams have dominated us this season. That's 5 losses right there.

I put Boston, Indy, San Antonio in the "likely a loss" column. We haven't played well against them.

I think we can beat Memphis, but we play them three times in 5 days (that's so dumb). We're going to get at least one L out of that.

If Miami has Butler this time, I think it's a loss.

 

They had him last night and barely beat what's left of the Lakers. Miami got freakishly hot in the bubble but has not turned out to be the team people assumed.

 

What suggests he won't be? The Blazers can sign him for whatever number they want. Hasn't our culture been propped up as something players want to remain in?

We need a new coach. A 2nd all-star that defends would be nice, but it's beyond obvious at this point that Stotts is terrible in the X's and O's department, and I think Olshey's finally realized that as well. Let him be the coach of a rebuilding team where he belongs.

 

I wouldn't mind missing the playoffs, getting a little lottery luck, then drafting Jalen Suggs.

 

The 2017 draft is the one big black mark. People hold 2016 against him, but that could've been Paul Allen as much as Olshey.

Thing is, the next two years he got Gary Trent Jr in the 2nd round, which kinda made up for it.

Here's the problem: Half the teams in any given draft will be criticized for "missing". A lot of good GMs missed in that draft. Milwaukee took D.J. Wilson 17, Indiana took T.J. Leaf 18th, Denver TRADED Donovan Mitchell for Trey Lyles and Tyler Lydon, Dallas took Dennis Smith Jr, Phoenix took Josh Jackson, OKC took Terrance Ferguson, Philly took a guy at 25 that they gave up the rights to a year later...

The draft is an inexact science, you can simply try your best and still fail.

What pisses me off about Stotts is he isn't even trying his best. His stubbornness gets in the way of that, and it seems like he'd rather have his way work than to try something else and have more success that way.

Either that or he's absolutely blind and has no idea what to do, which you can't say about Olshey because he has had a lot of good picks over the years.

 

The Blazers had full control over GTJ and do not have matching rights Powell, only bird rights, correct?

My assumption is they decided they wouldn't be able to justify spending <x> dollars on another 6'3" guard in GTJ and decided they would prefer an upgrade the last 2 months of the season in Powell, with the assumption we won't be able to stomach his next contract either. Toronto had already came to the same conclusion on the flip side, but the luxury of having GTJ rights and potentially smaller salary was worth kicking the tires.

I'm on record that I do not think we'll resign Powell, but I hope we can sign him to a team friendly deal. Are you on record that you think we will resign Powell and why?

 

Correct.

My assumption is GTJ wasn't all that happy here, wanted to start, and the organization knew that. They also didn't feel comfortable playing him upwards of $20M a year to be a 3rd guard, and went out and got someone who they feel is more justified giving that sort of money too and who can handle playing SF better than Trent could.

If they didn't want to pay that money then it doesn't make sense why they didn't just go out there and get a pick or two for him, and if not, they likely could've found a player on a reasonable multi-year contract in return.

Olshey has said they want to bring him back as well. Assuming he's gone just seems like a way to make the trade seem worse in order to criticize Olshey to me.

 

You literally could flip every sentence above and have as much proof to back it up.

• Drafting is an inexact science / coaching is an inexact science.
• Stotts isn't trying his best/ Olshey isn't trying his best.
• Stotts' stubbornness gets in the way / Olshey's stubborness with his guys gets in the way
• Stotts seems like he'd rather have his way work than try something else / Olshey would rather have his picks work than try a new core

Its why I think making these statements one way or the other are totally silly.

 

I hope you're right! We'll know in a few months!

 

Beat em next time.

 

So you will be really happy with 42-44 wins right?

 

So you wouldn't be happy with 42-44 wins?

 

Pretty much the way i see it also.