Game Thread GAME# 57: CLIPPERS @ BLAZERS - APRIL 20, 2021 - TUESDAY, 7:00, TNT

I can’t think of one game like that

 

CJ being able to sustain that 12 game stretch of play over a larger sample size just wasn't credible based upon the other 550 games of his career. His shooting has taken a real nosedive. His TS% for the first 12.5 games was .620; since he came back it's .534, if my math is right

I know people think I'm a CJ hater, but I comment so much about him because there just seems to be some real stubborn mythology about CJ. Take for instance, your statement that CJ picks up his game in the playoffs...is that really true?

PER: regular season 17.4....playoffs 15.8
TS%: regular season .552....playoffs .532
assist rate: regular season 17.4%....playoffs 13.2%
offensive rating: regular season 111....playoffs 106
defensive rating: regular season 112....playoffs 115
winshares/48: regular season .105....playoffs .056
BPM: regular season 1.1....playoffs 0.9

now, the playoffs are going to generally depress numbers for players, but those are kind of significant drops. And some critical context is that in the playoffs, teams twist their defenses to stop Dame, which leaves CJ mostly single-covered. He should be able to draft really well off of Dame's wake. That makes those drops even more significant. I think CJ is getting a ton of credit for that game 7 against the Nuggets, and that's warping perceptions about his playoff prowess

 

Sucks to lose, but an entertaining and competitive game with a lot of positives to take away.

Nas and Rondae played their hearts out. Ant showed some more flashes defensively too and loved that drive and lefty layup.

Norm missed a couple 3's late that he'd love to have back, but looked great attacking the rim. Really liked what he looked like in our double away and Chicago action getting to his right hand. Couple explosive lefty drives too (that baseline drive in the 4th was so pretty). Been a little disappointed with him defensively. As expected, he's looked solid as a chaser and point of attack guy (although he gets caught flat footed too much for my liking), but he's been pretty sleepy off the ball and involved in a lot of miscommunications defensively. Hopefully that gets cleaned up with more time with the team.

CJ and Roco have been slumping for a while. Roco not making the same impact defensively and haven't loved his decision making lately. Needs to do a better job sliding and cutting into space off the ball. His lack of involvement in recent games is not all on CJ and Melo...still hate not playing him late in games though.

Back to Rondae, I've always been a fan of his. Probably not a playoff player on a contender, but I'm intrigued by his fit with this team long term nonetheless. Doesn't quite have the juice athletically as DJJ as both a defender or finisher, but I think he knows who he is more and plays with more intelligence defensively. Better rebounder on both ends. Also like that he offers a bit more passing and handling. Like his fit alongside Zach at 5 a lot for all these reasons.

 

You’re including the playoff stats from 2014 & 2015 when he was an inconsistent bench player. Repost the stats just for 2016-20. His scoring always goes up in playoffs.

 

Dont disagree, but we still lose without him.

 

There are CJ haters here, but I would not consider you one of them. This and your previous posts are very strong and fact based providing context to why CJ has never been an all-star in 8 years. There is a small fraction of people here who want to overstate our roster top to bottom in order to push a narrative.

CJ's inability to draw fouls and play defense is what keeps him from being an all-star in my opinion. If he got around 8 FTA a game and was even a slightly above average defender, he would be an all-star.

 

These were our looks to win the game:

 

do you understand math?

CJ has played 1758 playoff minutes. He only played 24 minutes in 2014. That year was 1.3% of his total minutes That would not have any significant impact on his numbers, so lets just dismiss that half of your argument

in 2015, he played 166 minutes which is around 9% of his total minutes. That year, his PER was 16.1 when his career mark is 15.8. His TS% was .584 when his career mark is .532; his winshare/48 was .103 when his career mark was .056; and his BPM was 1.9 when his career mark is .09. In other words, that season's numbers actually pushed his career marks up, not down like you claim

so no...you're wrong. And if you want to cherry pick his numbers, go ahead

 

The reason CJ hasn't been an All Star is 4 of the best guards ever (Curry, Harden, Westbrook, and CP3) have played in the Western Conference during CJ's prime. Also- Dame. All of that said, CJ would've made the All Star game this season if he hadn't been hurt.

 

You're the one cherry picking with all these advanced stats of years he didn't even play much. The bottom line is this. The game is about scoring and his scoring goes up in the playoffs the last 3 seasons. Also- you only play so many Game 7s in your career (Jordan played in only 3). CJ played in a Game 7 on the road in Denver. He crushed that game. It is the only time Denver has lost a game 7 at home ALL TIME. When a chance to reach the WCF was on the line, CJ delivered. There have been 133 Game 7s all time and only 28 of them have been won by the road team. I'm sure if we win the title this year, you'll point to this year's playoffs as a small sample size.

So no, you're wrong. You refuse to mention his PPG because your argument goes up in smoke if you do.

 

Not going to bring out any stats, just that @wizenheimer used a bunch of different stats providing a more wholistic perspective.

Using just PPG is advantageous to a volume shooter as is doesn’t take into account effectiveness or any other aspect of their game.

Yes we’re happy CJ managed to have one great game 7. However, using one game as a barometer of overall long-term value to a team is deceptive and ludicrous.

You talk about eliminating outliers (2014-2015 playoffs) and then use a single game as your shining example of value rather than a whole body of work.

 

POSITIVES:
We DIDN'T get blown out
Melo WON A JUMP BALL AGAINST PAUL GEORGE!
Nobody could regret the Powell trade at this point
Stotts both played and got useful performances out of not just Derrick but also Anfernee, Nassir and Rondae.
Expanding on the above: Stotts really experimented and actually seemed to find a good blend that used our young guys.

Now, will the return of Dame and Nurk fuck everything up or build on this tiny progress?

 

Paul George for as much as everyone in here dislikes and funs him, is an amazing player. Yet he has disappeared mostly in the playoffs. He has a rep as being a great two way player but what impressed me last night was his quickness getting to the hoop and his footwork. He seems to be more healthy now as compared to some of his recent times leading into the playoffs.

 

Dame always refers to the teams ability to persevere and overcome adversity through an up and down season and/or stretch. Well, its going to get interesting real quick if they fall into the playin with I think will happen.
Our front court cannot be effective on both ends and the only way we get on a roll is through three point shooting and I think that's the teams strategy.
I would guess that the team that wins it all this year will be the one shooting three's extremely well and decent defensively. Its not rocket science with the game now as it wasnt back during Wilt and Bill.

 

This is kinda like saying the Blazers would've won the championship if the Lakers, Spurs, and Warriors didn't exist.

To your last statement, which is made by many, also requires an assumption that CJ at least maintained the level of play he started the first 12 games with. History, including the remainder of this season, does not suggest this to be likely.

I've offered to wager with anyone who feels CJ just got unlucky for the last 8 years that he will not be an all-star for the Blazers next year. Nobody ever wants to take me up on that wager and I think it's pretty clear why: They don't believe it is more likely than not to happen either.

 

The reason why he was in Lue didn't call timeout at the end they just went for it. It was smart move by Lue where Stotts couldn't have put anybody else. So Lue knew better then Stotts what personal that the Blazers had out there. Even how good Nas and Jefferson was playing you still have to Covington a person that can shots and play defense at the end Terry had plenty of time to have him go in.

 

At this rate I don't see it happening. Dallas Memphis Golden State right now could beat this team in play-in games but vice verse too. They need 6th place to prevent that.