Trade Ideas Thread

If he gets Beal under my fantasy scenario I'd cut him a bit of slack.

 

I don't think I could. I really don't see how Beal is THAT much of an upgrade for us. He's a better scorer than CJ, obviously, but aren't we just dealing with the same issues of a short back court and bad defense?

 

I think Beal is way better than CJ, and the Suns just made the finals with two all-star guards, but we will never know since it will never happen.

Paul and Booker are both all-stars.

Dame and Beal are both all-NBA.

 

Both of the Suns all-stars play both ends of the court. Beal is way better than CJ but he just gives us more scoring in the back court and more matador defense. When you couple that with the fact that we could target so many other players with CJ and keep Norm relevant and I just don't see why your going on about this.

 

Not a perfect fit, but Booker did not really play well defensively until later this year. Paul sure, but he's getting up there in age, and he only really defends one position anyways. I'm less concerned about that and obviously hopeful that the new coaching staff can get more defense out of the guys collectively.

Dame has shown he can play good defense before, at least in spurts. Beal, not quite sure, but he can't be worse than CJ.

FWIW, I don't have CJ as having much trade value. Here I'm valuing him at two late firsts, which seems about right to me. Not sure how many good players are available with that type of package. Last two guys moved that went for similar type packages are Aaron Gordon and Robert Covington.

 

Norm plays better defense than Dame, Beal and CJ. So we should target another position to get more scoring from and hopefully even more D when trading CJ. That's all I'm saying.

 

In an ideal scenario I would agree with you, but looking around the league there aren't many starting/star level wings that could be had for CJ's trade value. You're looking at guys like Harrison Barnes or maybe Tobias Harris. Don't think that moves the needle as much as getting another star like Beal.

Either way, there are a number of scenarios I would be in support of. This is just one.

 

If you get Beal, you have to find a way to sign and trade Norm for a wing. I wonder if Simmons could still be had.

 

BYC rules. He's 11M outgoing for us and 20M (or whatever he receives) incoming for the team acquiring him. Makes it almost impossible to match salaries.

 

Actually I got it working.

RoCo + Jones + Norm + Probably some draft capital for Simmons works.

Need to start Norm at ~18M and give him the 8% raises. Will give him a roughly 4 year 81 million dollar deal.

Blazers outgoing 33M

Simmons incoming 33M

Philly incoming 40.8M

Philly outgoing 33M

33M * 1.25 = 41.75. So the trade barely works. It's an awful lot to take on as salary though. And Philly is left with no point guard, and also gets capped at the apron for taking a S&T player, so not sure it really makes sense for them. Maybe if they can somehow also get Lowry....

 

bro what lol

 

Not sure how Dame would react, but I'd love the balance of our current lineup with Barnes swapped out for CJ.

I wonder if a $10M traded player exemption and a draft pick could bring something else back that is promising?

Lillard/Powell/Barnes/Covington/Nurk

The issue is none of Powell, Barnes, or Nurk is a good #2, but they're all excellent #3s (arguably).

 

Here is my deal that gets us Simmons without trading CJ:

Some nuances. Yes this trade works even with Powell's BYC status. His S&T deal is 18M in the first year with the standard 8% raises that the Blazers can give him. This puts his full deal at 4 years/81 million, which is around the range he's looking for. His BYC status means he's worth 10.8M to the Blazers outgoing, and the full 18M to the team incoming. In this deal they are taking in 41.2M and sending out 33.4 M (10.8+12.9+9.7). 33.4*1.25 = 41.75 so it just fits under the salary cap. For the Sixers who are taking in Powell, they are taking in 50.9M and sending out 41.2. 41.2*1.25 = 51.5 so it does work for them as well. Also another thing to note is that the Sixers are hardcapped at the apron after this move (~143M). By my calculations they are at 128.5M after this deal with 5 spots left. Filling out 5 spots with 14M should be easily do-able with ring-chasers or veterans. Another nuance is Lowry's contract needs to be 3 years minimum. Here I have him at 3 years/20M, but they numbers can be fudged to make the deal work incase more pieces have to be moved around. Paying him 20M at age 38 isn't ideal, but hey Stockton at age 40 was still a starter, and Lowry hasn't shown signs of decline yet at 35. Plus this is a win NOW move for Philly.

Anyways for the rationale:

Philly:

This starting lineup is just killer on both ends

Lowry
Powell
Covington
Tobias
Embiid

Doesn't really matter what depth pieces you get on the bench. This is a clear starting/closing 5 that can play modern NBA basketball. Creators, slashers, shooters at every position. Hard to say they are not a top contender in the east on paper.

Blazers:

Dame
CJ
Nassir Little?
Simmons
Nurkic

It's a bit more hazy on the Blazers end. But this is a way to get Simmons without dealing with the CJ side of the equation since that has been beat to death. I think this deal would need to be done in conjunction with some other deals. Possibly one that moves CJ anyways. I don't have the Blazers actually valuing Seth Curry here as a roster piece. I think he's good, but unnecessary. I think I needed to move his contract though, because I needed to send out additional money in order to compensate for Powell's BYC status, and his contract fit exactly the amount needed. Also, keeping him on the Sixers as an 8 million dollar bench piece didn't make much sense considering they would then need to fill out 4 roster spots with 6 million dollars. It's also some value coming back to the Blazers. But the Curry part is interesting because I think he can be routed to another team and that team can send some value back to the Blazers (or which ever team here thinks they deserve more value).

Raptors:

Pretty simple, get some assets for Lowry. They have the cap space to absorb Jones.

Curious what other people think of this framework. There are smaller pieces that can be moved around, ie. Portland sending an additional first, Portland sending Anfernee Simons instead of a first to Toronto, etc. I think the Blazers would prefer to keep Little around though, because 1.) he's a wing, and 2.) he's got another two years on his rookie scale contract.

But the basic framework is:

Simmons --> Portland
Powell/Lowry/Covington --> Philly
1st/Jones --> Toronto

 

We're not getting Simmons without CJ and probably picks but that's the deal I'm expecting. I don't know why you're dedicated to a bad defensive back court.

 

I am pro any deal that improves the overall talent of the roster.

 

it doesn't matter a bit if the overall talent of players 4-9 in Portland's rotation have been improved. The problem is the overall talent of players 1-3

Dame-CJ-Nurkic will never be a contender. And there's no way Portland can afford to pay Dame-CJ-Simmons.

 

No idea why you think we can't pay all three. We would not be the first team with 3 players being payed 30M+ and we wouldn't be the last. Warriors paid 147 million in luxury tax this past year. Jody Allen may not want to pay that, but to say it's not possible is just not true.

It's funny when I read responses to scenarios where I have us keeping CJ. Irony is that I value CJ probably even less than most, which is why I think it's likely we end up keeping him. I can't come up with many scenarios where we trade him and improve the overall roster, because his value is so low.

 

doesn't the Warrior local TV contract generate about 200M more a year than Portland's? They can afford to pay huge tax and still generate profit. Besides that, they are paying tax for a team that has won 3 championships. They are a bad example, and that's even before accounting for market size

if Portland had Dame-CJ-Simmons, they'd pay a ton of taxes. And your math is off. Portland would be paying 3 players an average of 40M+ a year, not 30M+

 

Dame is 40M, CJ is 31M and Simmons is around 35-38 after his trade kicker I don't remember. That's not an average of 40M+ a year, unless you're counting taxes. And they would likely not stay together for many seasons unless we were finals contenders each year. Warriors were paying 171M in base salary this year. Brooklyn 169M. Not sure why you think it's not possible. Most teams just need 5-6 players making over 10 million. The rest of the roster is rounded out with minimum deals. Let's say they spend 110 million on a big 3 trio, 30 million on the other two starters. That's 140 million and the rest can literally go to minimum/rookie scale deals which will bring them to around 160-170M. I don't think you do that unless you are finals contenders, but I'm fairly sure Paul would have been okay with it. Who knows with Jody.

Also, I've not seen the Warriors balance sheet, but I think some teams even want to generate a loss:

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-billionaire-playbook-how-sports-owners-use-their-teams-to-avoid-millions-in-taxes#:~:text=But IRS records obtained by,to offset his other income.

This article says the Clippers generated 700M in losses which were used to offset Ballmers taxes. I have no idea what Jody's financial situation is, so the situations may not be comparable, but neither does anyone else. But I do think in most situations if push came to shove, and a team had the ability to put a championship team on the floor, most teams would eat the cost of however much the luxury tax bill is. Another thing you are not considering is that the valuation of sports teams are skyrocketing, and the amount of money you end up paying in luxury taxes can just be seen as an investment into the business. An example is Milwaukee, who has seen the value of their franchise skyrocket (in no small part due to how well the team is performing):

https://www.statista.com/statistics...of-the-milwaukee-bucks-of-the-nba-since-2006/

Small team/market. Owners are worth a combined ~4 billion, which is much less than Jody Allen. They are going to pay around 160 million next year in total salary, and are doing so because the product they put on the floor increases the overall value of the franchise.

 

* Dame signed a 4-year/196M deal. That's 49M year

* CJ signed a 3-year/100M deal. That's 33.3M year

for Simmons:



he has 140.4M left on his deal. He also has that 15% trade kicker. 21M prorated over the 4 seasons = 5.27M.year

36.86M.....39.2M....41.5M....44.18M

so yeah, it's an average of 40M+ for each a season. The important thing to keep in mind is that 2022-23 & 2023-24 would be seasons Portland pays the repeater tax

another really important thing to keep in mind is that when you think about those other high paid trios, Curry-Durant-Klay; Lebron-DWade-Bosh; Durant-Harden-Irving (who failed)....those were all elite players. First or second team all-NBA. Many of them two-way players. Meanwhile, Portland would be paying even more for one player who has never sniffed an all-star game and another who is deeply flawed. Like all Blazer comparisons in the Stolshey era, it fails immediately for the apples/oranges reason

besides that, it's an inane argument we're having because Portland is not going to be trading role players for Simmons. I don't think even CJ would be enough leverage

edit: the only positive for Portland is that Philly would pay the trade kicker. But it still be assessed against Portland's cap