Trade Ideas Thread

Dame's contract on BBRef is wrong. It's not 196M, it's the supermax which is 35% of the salary cap. It's actually lower than the reported deal because the salary cap is lower than expected at the time of him signing:

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/portland-trail-blazers/damian-lillard-10814/

And like I said, taking the average of their lifetime is not the right approach, IMO. You take the first few years because if the team is not performing then chances are they aren't going to all be there by the end of their deals. And if they are, then I presume the team is doing well, so they won't mind footing the bill.

A lot of this presumes that the team thinks Dame/CJ/Simmons is actually worth going that deep into the tax for. Given how much crap you've given Olshey about his love for "his guys" (*cough* CJ), I think you would actually agree with me that the only person insane enough to think Dame/CJ/Simmons is on the level of those other trios is exactly the one making the decisions: Olshey. So yeah, if there is any chance Olshey can bring a third "star" (however loose your definition of the term is) in to pair with CJ/Dame, I think he would try to explore that route.

This is just one scenario I'm giving. I have legitimately no clue what Philly would want in a trade. In my eyes: Lowry/Powell/Covington is actually a better package than CJ/Some 1sts, mainly because I think CJ doesn't move the needle for any team. I'd rather do CJ/1st from Portland's perspective even with the clunky Nurkic fit that you would need to deal with afterwards, but at the end of the day, I don't think Philly does either deal. Like I said, I am pro ANY deal that improves the overall talent level of the roster, however it needs to be done, so if you floated any of these scenarios to Philly and they are interested in one of them, I would push as hard as I can to try and hit the finish line.

 

so then Dame averages 44M, Simmons averages 41M, and CJ averages 33M. 118M/year which is 39.3M per. So, al lot closer to my 40M+ than you're 30M+. I win...

We're quibbling now of course. That's 3 players for more than the salary cap, likely for the next 3 seasons. And it's 3 players for about 25M under the tax threshold for the next 3 seasons. So yeah, with repeater tax that's some serious tax penalties on that hypothetical horizon

I have no idea what kind of tax Seattle would find acceptable. Some tax probably. But with repeater tax, Blazers could be looking at 150-200M in tax bills over the next 3 years. I'd think the Vulcans would balk at that no matter what

I do agree that any major change in the roster, assuming one is made (unlikely IMO), is on a trial basis. Summer 2022 offers a chance for a major reboot of the roster as only 3 players have guaranteed money that year. Another year of Portland being a pretender will almost certainly launch that reboot, and at the same time Dame might demand a trade. That could be the end result of a decade of Olshey

 

Yes, regardless of how much it costs it will depend on whether the Vulcans are willing to pay it. I don't think either of our assertions (yours that they won't, mine that they will) are more correct. I laid out a scenario for you which has already taken place in Milwaukee, but I don't think either of us can really say what Jody and the Vulcans would do in that actual scenario unless we know their financial situation with the team and their risk appetite, which we have no way of knowing IMO. I will say the Blazers are worth 1.9 billion at the moment. But I would bet that valuation drops without Dame on the team, and the team in full rebuilding mode.

Agree with the latter. That is how I have felt since the end of the season and from Dame's non-committal answers. We could definitely tinker the roster this off-season ala the Neil Olshey special, stumble our way through next season and get another 1st (or 2nd) round exit. By that time, Dame will only have two years guaranteed left on his deal, same as Harden when he demanded a trade and IMO and he will likely ask out at that point.

So as a FAN (and strictly as a fan), I'd like the team to put their best foot forward this off-season. Move as many future pieces as you need to significantly alter the top of the roster, show Dame that you are committed to winning. So that even if we lose in the 1st or 2nd round next year, he will most likely still be committed to the team.

Of course, I have no idea what the Vulcans and Olshey are actually thinking. Maybe Olshey does actually want to waste another year with this same group and bank on the coaching change being enough. Or maybe in his heart of hearts he believes we cannot contend with Dame and our financial situation and actually wants to rebuild. Likely this is part of the disconnect between ownership, the front office, and Dame. I guess we will find out in about a month.

 

One more thing: team valuation (or at least point in time valuation) is pretty important if Jody and Vulcans are planning to sell sometime in the future. No idea if they are, but if so, it's in their best interests to keep the team competitive until that happens.

I wouldn't sell if I were them though. Team valuation across the league and across different leagues have skyrocketed over the last few years. They are solid investments even if the business is losing money.

 

I forget which thread it was in but there was a report/tweet/rumor posted that essentially said there was a real disconnect between Seattle, Olshey, and Dame. It implied that Seattle was not really happy with Olshey but not enough dissatisfaction to fire his ass. And that Dame wasn't happy, at all, with Olshey but also didn't think Seattle was engaged or committed enough with building a contender. And that Olshey did not share Dame's view that the roster needed a major upgrade. Nobody was on the same page, but nobody was wanting to take any immediate action.

I think the odds that Portland will have a very similar season to the previous 8 seasons are really high. What will be disgusting if Olshey survives another season of mediocrity and is the one who is looking to trade Dame because Dame couldn't take any more of Olshey's inertia

 

there are so many ways to spread tax liability and benefit across holdings, it would be next to impossible to track. Pretty sure that whenever all the ownership questions are answered, the Blazers value will be set on a stepped-up basis (especially for the Moda and other facilities) and that will create a major depreciation benefit that could shelter a lot of profit

I doubt you can really believe any of the revenue and profit numbers these franchises are credited with

 

It was from Farbod, the Clippers beat writer who reported Hardens trade demand before anyone else last year. It said all three parties had issues with each other. In my best speculation, the goals of all three parties are not exactly aligned at the moment. Vulcans are okay being a treadmill team that is financially stable and increases the value of the franchise. Dame wants to go all-in. Olshey and his general incompetence is probably caught in between, trying to balance the needs of his employers and keeping his star player happy.

Farbod also heavily implied that Olshey and Dame were aligned on the Billups hire, at least compared to any other candidates, so the idea that Dame would have accepted any other head coach (besides Kidd) is blasphemous imo, and also makes me laugh at the collective Blazers twitter/Reddit group that thought Dame would save them from Billups. He was Dames pick all along!

I fully believe that if Olshey botches this off-season or if Dame demands our next year that he is gone. Or I choose to believe at least.

 

Don’t disagree, but that’s also why I don’t think either of us can say whether they would be willing to foot a large bill without knowing their true financial situation. We will never know that.

I do think they will likely be in the negatives if they go into the repeater tax. Maybe they find that acceptable though for a few years depending on other factors.

 

If we can get Simmons without giving up CJ, I would move CJ to NY and try to get pieces to send to Washington for Beal.

 

Id pass on Beal and go after a 3/4 with height and D&O.

 

I mean.... isn't that what Simmons is?

 

Not for Philly he hasnt been, mostly.
I agree he should play more in the post or allow the offense to go through him high in the key where he can drop dimes.

 

If we could get the Sixers to agree to CJ and a first for Simmons and the Pistons had interest in him, do you think we could possibly make this happen. Get a great two way second option and a backup for Nurk. I just think that having Nurk that these guys would be more plug and play.

 

If we could trade CJ for Simmons, wouldn't the goal be to get Simmons in return? Seems like the wrong move to trade CJ for anything other than a star of some kind that fits better with Dame in return.

 

Jerami Grant is a star, his game is very complimentary to what Dame needs and what we need... especially if it means re-signing Norm.

Edit: But don't get me wrong, the Grant thing is just an idea... I would also probably take Simmons and then worry about getting what I could in return for Nurk.

 

I will admit I don't really know Jerami Grant or his game at all, so I would have to take your word for it. If that is the case, that makes sense, why not just trade CJ for Jerami then and cut out Philly? I am not familiar enough with the Pistons to know why that wouldn't make sense.

 

Detroit isn't really in win now mode, their team is really young and they have the second pick in the draft. So I think Simmons age would be more appealing than CJ ready made offense. The fact is that I think CJ is a guy that has to fit on a roster and Philly's is one of the few he really fits on and brings the value that his contract demands. It doesn't really matter though because I think Simmons is such an athletic freak and defensive monster that he really would be the guy we should take if we can get him.

I guess I was just thinking about other possible options and wasted both of our time.

 

Didn't waste my time, that's the whole point of this board! Clearly you know more about the Pistons than I do, so that is a useful perspective and some insights I hadn't had before this chat.

 

I would love to find a way to get Naz Reid at backup C. Decent rim protector who can hit the 3 and finish but is stuck behind KAT and could get more minutes here. DJJ seems like someone who might fit in Minnesota.

MIN Gets: Derrick Jones Jr, 2 Future POR 2nds
POR Gets: Dwight Powell, Naz Reid (Absorbed with Hezonja TPE)
DAL Gets: Ricky Rubio

Something like that which would save Minnesota $10M or so.

 

This could help us pursue a Kawhi S&T (including McCollum, Elleby, Dwight Powell, and a 1st to LAC). Extremely unlikely but why not swing for the fences.

The problem is, Kawhi hard-caps us at $143M. So if we're gonna resign Powell for $20M, have Nurk and RoCo making $25M combined, and pay Dame and Kawhi $80M combined, that's $125M for our starting lineup alone without even accounting for almost $3M in dead money.

Therefore, we'd have to pay our bench almost nothing. Little, Simons, and Reid could fill 3 of 4 spots at $8M total. Would then try to sign a Jeff Green type to a minimum at the PF spot and fill out the rest with minimum signings (maybe Collins?).

Lillard / Simons
Powell / Simons
Kawhi / Little
RoCo / Green
Nurkic / Reid

If we missed on Kawhi, we'd still have our backup C of the future and have 8 of 9 rotation spots filled if we could re-sign Powell (hopefully we'd trade C.J. for a forward like Siakam). Would then be able to use the tax-payer MLE for a backup PF (Batum?)

Lillard / Simons
Powell / Simons
RoCo / Little
Siakam / Batum
Nurkic / Reid