Game Thread 2021 NBA Finals - Suns vs Bucks!

Bucks next year will have 118M tied to 4 players. Blazers top 4 players next year will total 95 million. If Powell re-signs at the expected 20M per year, you can make that ~112M, but for 5 players instead of 4. That's perfectly fine, and leaves room to upgrade one or more of those guys for better players on larger contracts. Most good teams can and should spend the majority of their money on their top 5 players, because ideally you want 5 players that can play 36+ minutes each in crucial playoff games. The rest of the roster can be filled out with a combination of minimums/rookie scale/exception deals.

I see no reason Portland cannot replicate the salary structure that Milwaukee current has, provided Jody is willing to go deep into the tax.

 

Sure, but let’s get real here. First, the Bucks spent major assets to get Holiday. They gave up Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, two first-round draft picks and the right to swap two future picks, plus their rights to R.J. Hampton, whom the Bucks had taken at No. 24. All of that to get a guy on the wrong side of 30 who had been an All-Star exactly one time. If Olshey had done that he would have been eviscerated around here. Second, it looks good now, but what if the Nets had remained healthy and sent the Bucks off in 4 or 5 games the ECF? Maybe Olshey would get lucky too in making a move like that, but it’s certainly not the going to snare the second big time All-Star running mate for Lillard that folks around here have been calling for.

 

I got your point and I like your visual presentation.@ which complements with my thinking.
For me Dame is just much better (or important )than Jrue (but as you said you will also find some arguments for Jrue e.g Defense)

 

hmmm?...."major assets"?

Bledsoe, yeah, he's a major asset...I guess, or at least he was. He was arguably Milwaukee's 3rd best player; but, he had only averaged 15 points and 5 assists that year

Hill is not a major asset anymore, and he wasn't when traded. More like a 7th or 8th man, at best, with a trade-worthy contract

as far as the picks, it sure looks like the 24th pick in the last draft will be the highest pick the Bucks give up. Sure, by 2027 their 1st round pick may be a decent one. That's a long time away (Giannis will be 32 then, Middleton 35) and meanwhile, the Bucks are winning

so no, I do not believe the price was as high as you are implying. It was a substantial price to be sure, but when you start distilling the equation down to the price, you have to start gauging the payoff. To start with, Giannis had put the Bucks in the same position that Dame has put Portland in. That being "show me you're as committed to me and winning a championship as I am to the team". The Bucks certainly passed that test

and now, they are one win from securing the championship. That one accomplishment can put a giant band-aid over the abrasion of losing a high draft pick 6 or 7 years from now (although if the Suns come back and win...OUCH!)

the Bucks did what Portland should have done 2-4 years ago. If you want to argue it's too late to mortgage the future to the extent Milwaukee did (Dame is 4.5 years older than the Greek), that's probably fair, to a degree. But I think people carry that too far past a reasonable degree.

Portland has to do something a lot more impactful than adding an Afflalo or a RoCo. They have to at least once, swing for the fences during the Dame era. To not do so would be epic failure, on top of 9 years of timid management

 

the Bucks were at 130M last year when they made the trade. I'm not sure exactly what they dropped to during the moratorium, but I'd bet it was more that 112M

isn't it pretty obvious that the Bucks were operating at about the same level of cap encumbrances that Portland has been and is?

 

The situations were different. I'm sure that you'd agree that a 1-2 pairing of Giannis & Middleton is a lot more balanced and effective than Lillard & McCollum. I suspect that I can find a few hundred of your posts to help remind you, in case you've forgotten. Finding the third wheel is a lot easier to do when the 1 & 2 positions are set. Olshey has to come up with a #2 guy with about the same level of resources as Milwaukee had available to get their #3 guy. Maybe he can move CJ to get a more balanced #2 option, but I think that you've pretty consistently argued that CJ's value isn't that high. That would mean that he'd have to throw in more assets in combination with CJ. Then, unless you think Nurk is the #3 man, the Blazers would still need to fill that position. If Norm returns, then we're probably set, but there's no guarantee that's going to happen. I'm not arguing that it's impossible, just that it's more complicated than what the Bucks faced.

 

Bledsoe was the starting PG for the Bucks and played well. Hill is a role player, but a decent one. Two first round picks is still significant, or do I need to remind you of where Giannis was picked? And you still didn't address the fact that the Bucks are LUCKY to be in the position that they are. I just don't see them as having the horses to get past a healthy Nets squad. I do think that the Bucks serve as a model of what a small market team like the Blazers can do if they're smart, which is to position themselves to be in a position to grab a title when things fall their way. I don't see any moves that Olshey could feasibly make that would move the Blazers to the head of the pack in the West. Hopefully, he can put them in a spot to at least get to the second round and hope things break their way.

 

ok...I did not understand you were arguing the generic cost of a "3rd" option...and yes, the Bucks were starting from a higher level point than the Blazers are at right now. Good for them for having better management.

still, for the purposes of trying to salvage the remainder of Dame's career as a Blazer, I think debating 3rd vs 2nd option is a distinction without a difference. If the baseline is 'Giannis + Middleton + Jrue + Lopez/Connaughton' then how far off would the Blazers be, for instance, if they had 'Dame + Simmons + Powell + Nurkic/RoCo'? Is a roster led by that group supporting Dame at least worth a shot? And where would the line fall where the price was too high? Considering the alternative, Dame traded, I think the line sits at a fairly substantial cost.

 

need I remind you of where Sebastian Telfaire, Bruce Babbitt, Meyers, and Zach were picked?

I mean, Manu Ginobli was picked at #57, so, using the gauge of absolute-best-case-scenario, even late 2nd round picks are 'significant'

 

I'm certainly not arguing for the status quo. I'm going to be disappointed if Olshey simply tries to polish the turd by adding a few vets to the bench and leaves the Dame/CJ pairing intact. I think my complaint back when I posted the CBA FAQ wisecrack was simply to say that Olshey has some tougher waters to navigate than what Milwaukee did in making a play for Jrue (which, BTW, I think was brilliant. I've been a fan of his since the Pelicans spanked the Blazers due largely to his impact in defending Dame). I'm not sold on Simmons being the answer due to his scoring issues. He's got terrific skills, but I'm not sure a scoring-challenged #2 works better in Portland than it has in Philly. Maybe he can get his mud together this off-season and retool his shot.

 

I didn't say that late first round picks are any guarantee, particularly for a franchise whose GM masterminds have screwed up draft picks as consistently as the Blazers.

 

Sounds to me we shouldn’t pick short guys or white guys. Sounds like a fucking plan

 

I don't take exception to any of that....and I like to take exceptions....

in a way, I actually agree about the 'tougher waters' reference because the Bucks had two substantial outgoing salaries in Bledsoe and Hill which come close to totaling as much outgoing salary as CJ's single salary. Those two salaries leveraged a multi-team trade; Bledsoe went to the Pels, but I forget where Hill went?...OKC? More trade options when matching Jrue's large salary. Portland won't be able to do that with CJ. I guess something like Nurkic + Jones could get there but I really doubt that will happen

all that said, personally, I will be unwilling rationalize or excuse Olshey from doing his job just because it might be a little more difficult than what faced the Bucks' GM. He's the one who drove the Blazers into the dead-end street they are stalled in

 

I heard on the Radio that Milwaukee was 2" taller and 20 plus pounds heavier at all positions?

 

Too add on to this. Even the Mavericks, with Dirk, who was seen as the example of one guy staying with a single team for the entirety of their career. Those Mavs teams from early 2000 to the mid 2010s were constantly in the top 5 in terms of league salary. And they were also constantly switching out major starters each season, from Kidd, Harris, Butler, Chandler, Marion etc. etc. Also trying to position themselves to sign big free agents or pair Dirk with as much talent as possible. They rarely had a pick in the first round during that entire time. When you draft someone, your best case scenario is usually hoping for them to turn into a starter by year 3 or 4. We've kept almost all our picks since drafting Dame and have only one player at that level to show for it, and most of us want that player gone.

If anything, I'm more sad that Dame did not decide to push Neil's buttons until now, when he's 31, and it's almost too late. And that the situation is bleak enough that trading Dame and starting over is actually an arguable position. The irony of trading Dame is that the team trading for him is doing exactly what he wants the Blazers to do right now, sell the farm and compete.

We would almost certainly have to overpay in any sort of move, but it's hard to excuse it when Olshey is the one responsible for us being in this position. If fumbling the career of the best player in franchise history is not a fire-able offense then I don't know what is.

 

nice summary of the irony and the decision the Blazers have to make (or not).

 

I don't think there is any irony because I do not think it's true that Dame hasn't been pressuring Olshey till just recently. I think Dame has been pushing Olshey, but just doing it behind the scenes (wasn't it 3 years ago that Dame went over Olshey's head directly to Paul Allen to ask WTF?) And I think Olshey has been telling Dame fairy tales about how it's almost impossible to build a contender

But Dame saw the Bucks trade for Holiday (who Dame has publicly praised before) and the Suns trade for Chris Paul (who Dame has also praised). Then the Blazers got swamped by the injured Nuggets

then Olshey fired Stotts and said the roster wasn't the problem...when Dame knows it is

then the Suns and Bucks made it to the finals less than a year after completing trades that Olshey has been telling Dame are just too difficult to accomplish

IMO, this situation with Dame vaguely threatening a trade demand is almost all due to Dame not trusting Olshey, and Dame not trusting Seattle to put pressure on Olshey...or fire him. To be honest, I don't blame Dame at all. I don't think either Olshey or Seattle cares much about building a contender. They are fine with rinse-repeat mediocrity because Moda gets filled and revenues keep coming in

 

Agree with the last statement for sure. But whether there was pressure going on behind the scenes my opinion is that the pressure going public is something Dame should have done much much sooner. This all started with the vague Haynes report that "Dame may ask out". Dame's always dealt with trade rumors in previous years but it never came from him or one of his close sources. We wouldn't be having this conversation if not for that.

 

agree! Imo, Seattle is the first to blame as they have the guy they want running things for a reason. Paul went after Neil very aggressively and had many opportunities to fire him as has Jody and Bert. They are ok with a well oiled subsidiary that are a winning team (as Dame has put it) and turing a profit. Id like to see more form the press going after Jody and get a feel for where she's at.

 

I guess you are right (I agree with you about Dame pressuring Olshey before and also that he may should have done that more early public) but as it still would be ironic if Dame would be traded while asking for a stronger supporting cast/better 2nd & 3rd option while the other team is doing exactly what he is asking for (which is also in line with your saying about the possibility Blazers had to get Jrue or Paul before).