I'm messing with you. I always crack up when people go crazy good or bad when it comes to the preseason.
Question that I’d like opinions on: With the rookie extension coming up, would you give Simons a rookie extension? Imo, 4 years at an average of $14-16m + maybe $2-5m in possible incentives a year where the fourth year is a team option is not a crazy overpay. $14m + $5m incentives would be slightly under 12% higher than Robert Williams’ extension of 4 years at $11m + $6m incentives. I think Chauncey’s influence on Simons’ playmaking development will be huge. Assuming he improves at getting to the rim and continues to improve at playing NBA defense—if he develops his playmaking to be a backup PG (CJ-level I’d say), he’s essentially a CJ replacement at the starting SG, meaning CJ and eventually Norman can bring back better quality wings/bigs. With Billups as his coach and his natural athletic ability, I see no reason why he can’t get to the CJ-level. Locking him up now at a cheaper-than-Norman price would mean we have him until he is 25 and we don’t have to make a team option decision until he’s 26.
Ant isn't a full MLE player right now... maybe he'll be around there by the end of this season but it's important to note that Lou Williams has never made more than 8M in a season. So Chauncey would have to do some real miracle working to make Ant worth more than a four year extension that starts around 7M and ends with a team option near 9.5M.
I get what you’re saying when comparing Ant and Lou. But there is a big difference between paying Ant $14m a year and paying Lou $14m a year. You know what Lou is at this point in his career and you have to pay for potential. “Maybe he’ll get there by the end of the season” means now you’ll have to match a competing offer for a MLE-level player that is 23 with a lot of room for improvement. Let’s just say he averages 12/4 on sub-45% fg and sub-40% 3pt—I can almost guarantee another team offers him $18+m/year. Even if he didn’t play well enough to get any incentive money, $14m/year for a sniper off the bench that will keep improving his playmaking every year is not a terrible deal. Bogdan got $18/year and Kennard got close to $14/year. Of course, I’d love to lock him up for cheaper than $14m/year if we could, but $7-9.5m/year is impossible and would be downright disrespectful. Markelle Fultz barely played what could’ve been considered a full season, got a 3 year/$50m, then went out and played 8 games the next season. Even offering $12m/year might just put Anfernee at that spot where he might just feel comfortable betting on himself—I most likely would if I was him. You have to incentivize him to at least keep him happy while he’s waiting behind guys on the depth chart. Risk-to-reward at $14m isn’t high. $12m would be even better. $7-9.5m, stop it.
Honestly, I can't see Simons as ever being more than a useful bench player. A team wedged up against the Luxury tax has to cut corners somewhere and an undersized SG with limited ceiling is as good a place as any to start.
Limited ceiling? Can't see him ever being more than a bench player? You're really selling his ceiling short.
Hell no. Simons hasn't shown he's worth the MLE. This is as stupid as paying Meyers Leonard or Evan Turner. Robert Williams is a superior player that contributes on offense and defense. Ant is only a 3pt specialist that sucks on other areas of offense and sucks on defense. He's a slightly worse PG version of Tony Snell, who makes the vet minimum. It would be great if he develops to more, but you don't pay 14 million per year for something that could but most likely won't happen.
If there is any team that should know better than to bank on a one-dimensional player ascending to some imagined ceiling it's Portland. For chrissakes, they are still paying for the Allen Crabbe idiocy and Crabbe wasn't an undersized SG like Simons the NBA average for PER is 15.0 and Simons has a career 10.5. The NBA average for TS% is in the .560 range and Simons has a career mark of .536. The NBA average for winshare/48 is .100 and Simons is at .o36. His career BPM is -3.2. His career assist rate is 10%; Lou Wiliams is at 23%, Nurkic 14%, Kent Bazemore at 13%. Yeah, his marks were quite a bit better better last year, at least they were in shooting. But before Portland pays him they should see if he can build on last season or regress like so many players have. Allen Crabbe had a career year, got paid, and regressed significantly after that.
OT The Phoenix Mercury Are going to do what the Suns could not and win their respective championship. Even if you don’t follow the Women’s league, you probably still know the name “Diana Tourassi” whom had an absolutely sensational 4th quarter vs Las Vegas to get PHX into the finals last night. You probably also Know the name Brittney Griner (Also PHX)
Let’s compare Ant and Crabbe real quick if you’re going to go there. Crabbe got that 4 year/$75m contract after averaging barely 10pts on 45%/39% in a time when the salary cap was lower. Anfernee getting $14m today would really be more like getting $10-11m back in 2015. Anfernee has at least shown by the end of year 3 that he is a considerably better shooter than Crabbe was through year 3. Crabbe can catch and shoot like Ant, but that was the extent if his shooting ability. Ant shoots off the dribble and often makes difficult ones. To me, that alone makes Ant a better player than Crabbe was when he was ending year 3. Crabbe was also never a good defender either and was never going to be a threat off the drivble. Anfernee is already at least as good on offense given his limited playing time compared to Crabbes 26mpg in year 3. Not sure if I’m the only one who shares the opinion that Ant through year 3 was better than Crabbe through year 3. Maybe it’s debatable, but if there’s no doubt to you that Ant was better than Crabbe, then $14m a year ($10-11m back in 2015-16ish) isn’t a bad deal at all. If he earned all $5m of his incentives, more power to him. All things considered, even though I wouldn’t offer Anfernee this much, $17.5m/year for Ant now would be a better deal than Crabbe for $17.5m/year back in 2015. So $14m/year right now would probably be the sweet spot for me. Just to remind everyone, Ant’s most recent playoff performance in limited playing time through 6 games: 6.5ppg/2.7rpg/.8apg on 56%/61%/0. Crabbe through 11 playoff games in 2015: 9.5ppg/2.9rpg/1.4apg on 52%/43%/74%. If I’m not mistaken, Crabbe was also 24 when he got than extension whereas Anfernee is 22 right now. Team option in year 4 limits the risk even more.
Speaking of this, Wednesday's game against the Suns in PHX has changed and will tip off at 2PM our time! Thought you guys might want to set your DVRs. Hope the people who have me on IGNORE don't see this and miss the game.
That is…ludicrous. A more confident Ant is already a useful bench player right now. Even 12ppg/4apg in 2 years at $14m/year would be a good deal for someone who might be considered a premiere backup PG in the league. Of course that is also just my own assessment of Ant’s ceiling. If I’m wrong in a couple years and you live in the Portland area I’ll buy you a beer lol.
