A Stotts Defense

it's not going to be quite what the title suggests, but the title might get people a little ehgaged, one way or the other

* (and here is the obligatory 'it's way way early..sample size variance' asterisk)

defensive rankings under Stotts:

2012-13 - 26th
2013-14 - 16th
2014-15 - 10th
2015-16 - 20th
2016-17 - 24th
2017-18 - 8th
2018-19 - 16th
2019-20 - 28th
2020-21 - 29th

2021-22 - 21st

if you want to go by average, for Stotts, it was 20th; one slot better than the current team. And it's as low as 20th because of the last two rosters Olshey gave Stotts to work with...and injuries to Nurkic and Zach

the actual rating number is lower this year, but it's first season under the new defensive rules that allow defenders a hell of a lot more contact than any year under Stotts. It was also the shortest off-season in NBA history. And there is a new basketball being used this year that almost no player likes. Those may or may not have any mitigating value, but they are at least worth mentioning as all would seemingly impact the efficiency of offenses

now, if you assign a lot of the blame/responsibility for those shabby defensive ratings the last 2 years under Stotts to piss-poor defensive roster building by Olshey AND key injuries, and disregard those two seasons, then in the first 7 years of Stotts, Portland's average defensive rating was 15th. That does seem to go quite a ways in creating a little different perception about Stotts and defense.

The Billups' defense may be getting a substantial perception boost because of recency bias against last year's historically bad defense. Stotts was not the one who put Kanter-Melo-Simons in position as first three off the bench. That was roster construction. But I think Stotts had lost the team, especially on defense, by half-way thru last season...and maybe much sooner. Giving him a pink slip was justified IMO

But, when you think about Stotts defenses you have to at least give him credit for the good ones if you blame him, entirely, for the bad ones. And when his average defense could be arguably in the 15th-20th slot, the current 21st ranking isn't so remarkable. I think the Blazers will probably have a decent defense this year, but I doubt it will reach the 15th spot; maybe beat the 20th spot.

 

What two players hurt the Blazers defense the most?

 

Is this a trick question? Because if a player is not playing because he is hurt is he hurting the defense?
Look how those years stack up and look at the damage injuries have done to the teams defense.

 

this year? hard to say

but it's net rather than one end of the floor that is important. Last season:



http://www.82games.com/2021/2021POR5.HTM

 

So Dame and Nurk are the best two defenders?

 

is that what you see in those numbers?

 

Melo and Kanter.

 

I was looking at opponent production at position?

 

please explain.

 

who are the best two defenders? please answer.

 

meant to say worse two by opponent production.

 

I get the net rating.
Back to my original question though, what two players hurt the blazers defense the most? what do your numbers say?

 

I have not seen any games this year, but based on the NBA units from this year, it seems like CJ features prominently in those that have a bad defensive rating followed by Dame. These seem to also match if you go by individual DBPM (there Dame is much worse than CJ). It is such a small sample size tho that I would not really want to comment on it without seeing the games - which as I have said, I have not done yet, this year.

Last year, by DBPM only, it was GTJ, Hoodie, Little followed by Melo, Kanter which sort of matched the my observations from actually seeing the games.

 

you seem to be probing for an answer to debate with...? Why don't you tell me what you see since I didn't forward conclusions, just the numbers from 82 games...?

keep in mind these are per48 numbers and simply a positional breakdown. In terms of PER, PG and C were the two 'worst' positions defensively. But they were also the only two positions with a positive net differential. In terms of eFG%, PG was the best defensive position while C and SG were the worst, although that's understandable for C's considering average shot distance and foul rates. In terms of points/shot, C and PF were the worst positions

all of these would need to be gauged against the relative strengths of the position across the NBA. For instance if the average PG PER was 18.7 while the average PF PER was 16.2, that would need to be normalized for a straight across comparison

 

well, all the celebration about that 6th rating in defense seems a long time ago

Blazers are now 24th in the NBA in defense; and that +6.8 net differential is down to +1.2. Makes a big difference when the home/road record is even, doesn't it

 

We could swap through a dozen coaches. If your four best players are basically 6'3, you aren't going to be a good defensive team.

 

Yes. This exactly.