The 'Next' Move

If we're being precise, I think I said something to the effect of there being more players to be contributors who aren't actually good players when you are on a bad team. Then you brought up about seven Hall of Fame players, which seems a bit like moving the goalposts.

And the idea that quality contributors exist in every draft doesn't work that way in a vacuum, either. It varies from draft to draft. Oh sure, there always have been quality contributors in every draft. That's the law of averages. But there's no set quota on how many or how good.

 

Dame could be traded every moment until Thursday...

 

I absolutely agree with your first sentence. Except, that's not applicable to the Blazers in 2022. They weren't punting on the draft unless they somehow made it through the play-in round.

That makes your second sentence one of nuance. Is there, in this draft, a level of talent that justifies handing away two assets to move from the 10th pick to the 6th pick that in fact could have either reset the talent balance on the team or brought back better drafting opportunities in the near future?

I'd suggest the answer to that is no.

 

There some quality players in the top 10 where more likely we end up that probably could in to help us. I seen majority of the players that should go into the top 10 everyone one of them probably could in and help right away.

 

So what? What does that have to do with this year's draft?

You're telling me that trading away valuable assets with almost no return is worth a shot that we might win the lottery and then this year's top pick might reach his potential of being the next Chris Bosh.

That's like a millionaire giving away all of his money to buy one lottery ticket that, if it hits, would make him a billionaire. It's not sensible.

 

We disagree on the quality and potential of these players.

I also think, unless you pretty much completely clean out the Blazers roster, you've further depleted Portland's chances at getting a player who can contribute immediately because almost all of them are 6-3 to 6-5 shooting or combo guards. Now, if you want to trade Dame and draft one of those guys because you have needs at every position and can afford to take absolutely the best player available, then I'm on board with your thinking. If you want the team to keep Dame and Ant and Nas and Keon Johnson, then all of a sudden the window for any of those players to step in and contribute meaningfully and grow is significantly diminished.

 

The other thing to consider that I've kind of brushed on in some of these posts is the potential value of say the sixth pick vs. the 10th pick as a trading chip.

Of course, I find that negligible, certainly not enough to justify the Powell/RoCo trade, the reason being that, as others have agreed, this isn't a deep draft and the one area where it has some value is about a half-dozen or so combo guards that figure to go between 4-16 and have little to differentiate between them.

Supply and demand depreciate the value of a pick between 6-10 in this particular draft.

 

Late to the party here, because this place has been a freaking loony bin since the trade, but one of the things I find interesting that folks aren't talking about is the timing of it... Regardless of your feelings on the haul (I tend to think Joe was short at least an asset), the fact that he made the deal a week early makes me think there has to be a "next move", otherwise why settle on losing a trade with another week to negotiate?

It's a head-scratcher, to be honest, but those who argue that Cronin used "no logic" in the move are themselves, not being logical. He's a 15-year vet in the industry who's scratching and clawing for his once-in-a-lifetime job. We may not appreciate his logic, or see the whole picture, but to just pretend that he's some NBA exec Manchurian candidate making decisions with no strategic thought is just silly... The question is what was that logic?

The one (and, frankly, only) theory I keep coming back to is leverage in another deal, specifically, a CJ deal. It stands to reason that our big haul was always going to come from moving CJ. It also stands to reason, that the offseason is likely the time where you're going to have maximum suitors for him, and thus maximum negotiating leverage. Is it possible that a team, say NO, was lowballing us for CJ and Cronin's leverage chip was holding him until the offseason? If true, prior to the trade, that team could've been trying to leverage us being in "no-man's land" with Ant, CJ, Norm and Powell. By trading Roco and Powell, Cronin makes it clear that we're all-in on youth and tanking. It's Cronin not blinking in a game of chicken.

I believe there's a strategy in place, and that Dame has been bought in (because, come on, no interim-GM wanting the gig is going to do anything without his star's approval), but this is really the only scenario I can think of that feels like it might make some sense... If Cronin came up an asset short in one trade but is able to leverage an additional asset in another, you could at least see how that could be...

 

if there’s some kind of unique asset that we got in the clippers trade—an asset that we only got in order to a very specific follow up move—it makes no sense to do this deal “early” without the other deal in place to execute immediately afterward.

 

That's why I said their active roster.

 

This entirely misses my point... in my theory, the "unique asset" would be increased leverage in some other trade discussion. It would cause those discussions to take a step back, not happen immediately after...

 

I'm saying -- without the Powell/Roco trade, the optimal time to trade CJ would've been in the offseason -- that's our leverage point in trade negotiations. By moving Powell and Roco, Cronin signals to other teams that the "no man's land" leverage is null and void and even WITH CJ, we'll still suck this season, so pony up or we hang onto him until we have a better offer this offseason.

 

I don't buy your far reaching grasp at justifying that trade. Cronin took a crap return because it sends some message to potential CJ trade partners? If so he might be a bigger idiot than I'm thinking.

Secondly, trading Powell didn't even solve the crowded backcourt. It still is overcrowded with three short guards making 20-50 million each that can't all play together. Norm was literally the only one of the 4 that the team didn't have to trade.

Its more likely the team just made a stupid trade. Your sentiment was the same when the team traded away Zach Randolph for nothing, or signed Evan Turner, or had LaMarcus walk away. Sometimes the team just does something that is immediately bad and stupid.

Another possibility is Jody said you must 100% get below the luxury tax now I don't care the return. And Joe panicked. All of these seem much more plausible than Cronin being a hidden genius playing 4 dimensional chess.

 

Some team is just clamoring for Eric Bledsoe and couldn’t put together a package to peel him away from the Clips?

 

And you think this message is going to get us what, a top 55 protected second round pick?

There is no way this message gives us a better return than the team just lost in the stupid Clipper trade.

 

I feel like I went out of my way to make clear that I wasn't excited about the trade. I posited a theory, fine to disagree with it, but there's not a lot to discuss when you're not willing to embrace a premise of there being some sort of logic behind the move. If you're right, we'll have YEARS to be miserable and bemoan ownership. Why get a head start?

 

One of the most frustrating things I read in here on a daily basis is the "throw in a frp or 2". Another is the common offseason sentiment about how hamstrung we are because of the cap situation. Now there's a good chance we won't have to worry as much about our cap and very few members have identified that after the trade. And then the response is "no good fa want to come here". So, it's obvious the most reliable way to improve the talent is through the draft. And if it takes our draftees a couple years to develop and they aren't ready during Dame's best years, so what. It's one roster spot a year, maybe two. But, if we just keep throwing those picks in trades like they're useless, we'll keep circling back to the same issue. I have a feeling CB will be very good at developing young guys/rookies and the best part about a rookie is it only lasts one year. Not to mention that there are rookies who actually can contribute their first year.
So, while everyone is trying to figure out the trade that puts us over the top, leave the draft picks alone. When management is unable to attract a star fa year after year, those useless draft picks will be developing just like Ant and Nas. (Speaking of Nas, I can see KJ following in his footsteps as far as his development goes. Same kind of descriptors used on both guys.) Maybe these young guys aren't gonna contribute to a ring in the next year or two and that's ok because Dame's career won't be over in a year or two. Use our other assets for the short term but keep making draft picks for the future and maybe, just maybe, they pick someone that is able to contribute right away in some aspect of the game. Oscar Tsheibwe, Keegan Murray, Ochai Agbaji, Christian Koloko, Orlando Robinson, Jalen Duren, Kendall Brown. All guys who have something to offer right away and if they don't, then let them sit for a year and grow so that they are ready to contribute while our window is still open.

 

does really anyone here want's to see Cronins next move ?