One more win than SAC and SAS. I'm nearly certain we fall below both of them. Two losses below Indiana. It seems like they are going to somewhat try to win with Turner/Haliburton, at least much more than us, so we probably most likely fall behind them too. I don't think we can fall behind Detroit or Orlando. We will certainly win at least a couple games and they won't win many. So the range I would most expect from our squad is 4th-5th with a slim chance of 3rd. The chance of the #1 pick for 3/4/5 slot is 14% 12.5% 10.5%. Chance of a top4 pick at those spots is 52.1% 48.1% 42.1%
Right now NOP are at 9th pick with a 20% chance of being in the top4 (and thus us not receiving the pick). Seems like we want them to lose to improve the pick, but losses also increase the chance it jumps to top 4 and we don't get it. If they go up to the 7th pick its a 32% chance we lose it, or if they go down to the 11th pick its only a 9% chance we lose it. Think I might just prefer the Blazers lose to the Pelicans, unless it looks like they could actually make it past the playin. But if they can't beat our shit team this year do they really even have a playin chance? So maybe we want a Blazers loss to the Pelicans regardless.
That is why keeping Josh Hart seems critical to me. He would seem to be a great fit next to Damian Lillard and not only that and almost as importantly he could be a great back up to Nassir little who we know is probably unlikely to play 82 games. Hart is 26 years old. Someone pointed out that Josh Hart's contract for next season is not guaranteed. If we don't keep him we could be in deep trouble. To me it does not make sense to let him go.
Hart is a really good contract because it is a full team option this summer and the following. No partial guarantee at all, so max flexibility for Blazers
Just looking at this and expecting that they'll only have Zion for the last half of those games I think the rest of the way they'll be a few games under .500 that has a ton of good teams they have to play. So they'll either stay right in the 10th spot or get bumped by the Spurs whose schedule gets easier than it's been or quite possibly the Kings because they may have just become a team that no one wants to play on any given night if their new roster gels.
It would be kind of ironic if San Antonio bumped the Pelicans into the lottery because of the play of Zach Collins
Speaking of Zach. It would be nice to have Zach on the contract he has now given the direction of the team.
I think some of these team in our sphere right now are trying to get into the play-in game. Some have young coaches trying to prove themself. A team like the Thunder already have a million picks for the future. I think we’re the only team that is obviously trying to lose games right now. Ha
so we could all be waiting for the next injury? I think Olshey was loathe to trade Zach, essentially admitting to everybody how stupid he had been in the 2017 draft. So, for him to have traded Zach I've got to think he'd had several conversations with doctors about the odds of Zach remaining healthy the rest of the way. Theory #3774 in the wizenheimer playbook
It all truly hinges on Zion. The only way they make the playoffs and pass the LA teams is if he comes back healthy. But I do see NO climbing above NY/WAS for sure in their overall record, which would put them at possibly 11th in the lotto standings. That gives them a 9% chance of keeping their pick (top 4) if they don't get through the play-in.
He's on the same 1 year guaranteed + 2 year team option deal similar to Josh Hart. There's literally no risk with him on the roster this year. Oh, except it's a slight hit for Jody's pocketbook. Guess that's why he's not on the roster.
