Keeping our pick? This might be a Lottery year

If we don't get Brown or Bachero I think the team has to trade the pick for the best player possible that can impact this team at an all star level now. If you want to ask who, I can't tell you now. We'll have to wait and see which teams blow it in the first round.

 

BPA all the way.

i still like Davis and think he's the true BPA but want to make sure we do our due diligence in workouts. i think the general consensus is that ivey has a higher ceiling due to this burst and athleticism, but wonder how much has to do with Ja's success lately and recency bias. I think teams have a tendency to project prospects based on lazy NBA comps after seeing the NBA analogs do well that year.

Like Toronto thinking Bargnani is the next Dirk in 06 and drafting him #1 in the draft immediately following Dirk's finals appearance. Ivey probably does compare more favorably to Ja than Bargs did Dirk, but my point remains. The measurements at the combine, the interviews, and the in house workouts are going to still be crucial.

 

Who has ESPN +?

Can you help a brother out?

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/in...y-gonzaga-chet-holmgren-polarizing-nba-scouts

Why is Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren so polarizing with NBA scouts?

 

I don’t think it’s recency bias at all, the nba has always valued explosive guards to the point where you have guys that weren’t even starters, like Lavine, going in the lottery.


I think Iveys ceiling is much higher than Davis’. Davis looks like he struggles to create space, he makes a lot of tough contested shots, which looks nice, but would/should actually be a concern for the next level.

 

Why is Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren so polarizing with NBA scouts?


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Gonzaga freshman Chet Holmgren has been atop ESPN NBA mock drafts all season, but that doesn't mean there aren't questions about his future at the next level in the eyes of scouts. The 7-foot and 195-pound Holmgren has had his unique frame questioned since his high school days at Minnehaha Academy in Minnesota. It didn't prevent the 19-year-old from coming to Gonzaga as the No. 1 prospect in high school basketball last year, but with the NCAA tournament right around the corner, Holmgren will be under the microscope in the eyes of NBA scouts.

What are the questions surrounding Holmgren's one-of-a-kind frame that makes him so polarizing for NBA scouts? Could a poor showing in the NCAA tournament help catapult Auburn's Jabari Smith or Duke's Paolo Banchero to the top spot in the draft?

Holmgren and the Zags will try to wrap up a No. 1 seed on Tuesday in Las Vegas when they play Saint Mary's in the WCC tournament final (9 p.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN app) in front of several NBA general managers and 40-plus scouts. ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz answer the questions surrounding the most intriguing NBA prospect in quite some time.

Why is Chet Holmgren so polarizing with NBA scouts?

Familiarity breeds comfort in the world of the NBA draft. Spend any amount of time with an NBA executive discussing draft prospects, and often the topic will turn to which NBA player future draft picks "remind you of." It's helpful to put prospects in context by comparing them to NBA players, to visualize their pathway to success and gauge their fit on existing rosters. How does James Wiseman get drafted over LaMelo Ball? Or Marvin Bagley III over Luka Doncic? Special can also be a synonym for scary in the evaluation process.

The "problem" with Holmgren is he's a one-of-a-kind prospect, the likes of which we have simply never seen before. There are no great NBA comparisons that truly capture his rare skill set on both ends of the floor, and that's unnerving in many ways, as we're operating in unfamiliar territory. For draft analysts, that's incredibly exciting. But for NBA executives whose careers hinge on making the right choice atop June's draft, that can be downright frightening.

• 13dJonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz

Start with his dimensions. Holmgren was measured over 7-feet barefoot by USA Basketball last summer, with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. There are 16 active NBA players who stand over 7-feet, and none of them weigh anywhere close to 195 pounds like Holmgren.

The closest physical comparisons we can find are Aleksej Pokusevski, Bol Bol, Chris Boucher, Isaiah Jackson -- hardly the most inspiring or imposing group.

None of these players came remotely close to producing the way Holmgren has thus far. You have to look back to Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon for lottery picks who put up the type of scoring/rebounding/blocking numbers Holmgren has produced on a per-minute basis, and none of them did so as freshmen.

Those are also true centers who did their damage inside the paint while physically dominating overmatched college competition. By contrast, Holmgren is shooting five 3-pointers per-40 minutes, making 43% of his attempts, better than all but two players currently projected to be drafted, both of whom are under 6-7. He is also shooting 74% from 2-point range (better than any projected draft pick), including 49 dunks, more than both Banchero and Smith combined, per Synergy Sports Tech.

Holmgren's ability to ignite Gonzaga's offense by pushing off the defensive glass, go coast to coast acrobatically, and find teammates off a live dribble are things that further separate him from other big men past or present. Despite towering over opponents, his mobility, lateral quickness and length makes him better equipped for guarding smaller players on the perimeter than strong-framed traditional bigs on the block.

Everything about Holmgren is uncommon, unconventional and completely unfamiliar. We have never seen a prospect like him before. -- Jonathan Givony

Jaden Ivey and Johnny Davis, while the tournament featured future draft picks in Canada's Bennedict Mathurin and France's Victor Wembanyama (who outplayed Holmgren in the final).

While some of Holmgren's best games have come against weaker competition (San Diego, Bellarmine, Pepperdine, etc), he's also had strong non-conference showings against UCLA, Alabama and Duke, as well as at home against Saint Mary's and home and away San Francisco games in the WCC, both of whom are top-20 caliber teams according to several metrics. By comparison, the ACC has zero top-25 teams for Banchero to match up with. It is safe to say that NBA teams have seen Holmgren excel against better competition, although they'd certainly like to see more head-to-head matchups with fellow NBA prospects, something the NCAA tournament should hopefully provide. -- Givony

How concerned are NBA scouts with Holmgren's slender frame holding up against NBA players?
You generally have two factions in the NBA regarding physical projections: The "body scouts" who value day one physicality, and the evaluators who tend to think more long term, noting that almost every slender prospect ranging from Giannis Antetokounmpo to Anthony Davis to Kevin Durant ultimately fills in with NBA strength and conditioning. You'll hear some of the most accomplished NBA execs rightfully ponder, "When is the last time skinny hasn't worked in the NBA?"

Yet there's still a contingent of NBA evaluators who seem more skeptical than usual regarding how quickly Holmgren will fill out, and by how much. You hear scouts say: "Look at his gait" or "I'm worried about his hips." Some evaluators said they left his underwhelming performances this season with "more questions than answers" regarding how he will survive physically in the NBA. Whether valid, others are even evaluating Holmgren's father, Dave Holmgren, a former standout at Minnesota who is lean himself at 7-0. Some see Chet's future going the way of Dave's, which seems a little ridiculous given the evolution of sports science since Dave's playing days.

As Givony outlined, there simply haven't been many players at Holmgren's height with his body type. Here's a look at how certain prospects were similar or different than Holmgren:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was 6-9, 196 pounds entering the NBA, is a physical outlier who sprouted to 7-0 and added almost 50 pounds of muscle to his always-broad shoulders.

• Anthony Davis was 6-9, 187 pounds as a 17-year-old, yet weighed 222 pounds by the time he reached the NBA combine two years later. He now plays at 253 pounds.

• Evan Mobley tipped the scales at 198 pounds as an 18-year-old at USA Basketball and ultimately entered the NBA at closer to 215 pounds, which is around his current playing weight.

• Brandon Ingram was skinny coming up on the AAU circuit and is still listed at 190 pounds. Although there's been a clear physical progression since his Lakers days, Ingram hasn't seen a physical boom quite like Antetokounmpo, Davis, or Kevin Durant, who weighed 215 pounds as an 18-year-old and is now listed at 240 pounds.

• Rudy Gobert was almost 240 pounds by the time he reached the NBA combine as a 21-year-old.

• Mo Bamba weighed 196 pounds as a 17-year-old, yet eventually topped 225 pounds as a 20-year-old at the 2018 combine. He now plays at 231 pounds.

• Anthony Randolph weighed 197 pounds as an 18-year-old, yet was playing at a slender 230 by his mid-20s.

• Chris Boucher is another unique case as he weighed 182 pounds at the combine as a 24-year-old, and is now listed at 200 pounds.

• Austin Daye, who was 192 pounds as a 21-year-old, played a lot of his NBA basketball at 220 pounds.

• Pokusevski weighed 196 pounds as a 16-year-old with a better base than upper body, yet is now listed at 7-0, 190 pounds. Only able to compete in the Greek 2nd League abroad, Pokusevksi's question marks were more about toughness and durability than body construction, even with his narrow shoulders.

• Bol Bol weighed 208 pounds at the combine, but he was coming off a season-ending foot injury and weighed as much as 234 pounds as an 18-year-old. His frame is more in line with Pokusevski's than Holmgren's.

How does Holmgren compare physically? He doesn't quite have the same lower body or quickness as Mobley, even if he has a little more room to fill out the top. He's clearly skinnier than guys like Gobert, and even Davis and Durant at the same stage (Holmgren turns 20 on May 1). Although a bit lighter, he's tougher than Pokusevski, Bol and Bamba. We don't have combine measurements for Kristaps Porzingis, but he had a more projectable frame at the same stage, especially in the lower body, and plays at around 240 pounds now.


Chet Holmgren shows off the range with the 3
Chet Holmgren shows off the range with the 3

In terms of body construction with somewhat narrow hips, almost zero backside, high and wide shoulders, long arms and movements that are rangier, a 7-1 Ingram is probably the closest physical comparison to Holmgren in terms of frame. And Holmgren, who looked a bit stronger when I saw him Monday night against San Francisco, has more physical upside given his height and reach, and his fluidity is nothing short of spectacular.

The question then becomes, if Holmgren is truly closer to a 7-1 Ingram physically than Gobert, Mobley or Durant, what does that mean for his long-term projection? Where will being thin affect him, and for how long, if at all? Surely, Holmgren figures to struggle with the physicality of bigs such as Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic when they play out of the post. Most NBA bigs do. Watching Estonian Saint Mary's big man Matthias Tass have his way with Holmgren on a few possessions in a recent loss re-emphasized that point. Whether in the post or on a drive from a physical big such as Banchero (see their November matchup), Holmgren will take his lumps. But will Holmgren have to check Embiid and Jokic in those matchups? As Givony outlined, Holmgren is also capable of playing the 4 early in his career because of his mobility and defensive range, even if it's not quite to Mobley's level in terms of switch ability. That has surely helped Mobley, who doesn't have to worry about consistently banging inside while alongside center Jarrett Allen.

It's also important to note how many shots Holmgren's length and timing changes versus how many points he gives up by sheer force and physicality. It's the quiet toughness and mean streak he plays with -- which has similarly helped a guy like Ingram find so much success in the NBA -- that will help him hold up more than his biggest naysayers suggest. And as we've seen with Mobley being one of the NBA's top rim defenders in the league already at 215 pounds, you don't need to be Hercules to be a great rim protector. Holmgren is blocking more shots per 40 minutes (5.3 to 5.0) against teams over .500, with at least 10 altered shots against Alabama. His biggest NBA fans praise the nastiness his plays with, as do opposing coaches.

"He's a generational player," San Francisco coach Todd Golden recently said after a narrow loss to Gonzaga and Holmgren, who went for 21 points, 15 rebounds and six blocks. "Obviously he's skinny. There are times when he looks like Bambi out there. But he really doesn't get overpowered out there. He can fight the fight. We have some grown men in our front line [two fifth-year seniors who are over 245 pounds]. He can bang with those guys."

The other concern would be on the defensive glass, yet Holmgren's reach and toughness still outshine his lack of physicality, as he's regularly tapping the ball to himself or an open teammate or snatching the ball in traffic, even if he takes at least a few hard spills to the floor every game. It's important to note rebounds are far more uncontested in the NBA than in college. Offensively, Holmgren's finishing should translate even with his lean frame given his reach and the fact he's an agile lob-catcher. For reference, Mobley is posting a 73.8% eFG% in the restricted area, good for 18th out of 44 high volume finishers.

Where Holmgren could get in trouble is when teams switch on him to take away his pick-and-pop 3 and force him into post isolations, where he's easily pushed off his spots. But I imagine we'll see more and more of Holmgren's Dirk Nowitzki fallaway in the NBA, and the fact that he can handle, shoot off the dribble and pass at 7-1 will allow him to overcome some of the physicality concerns.

Teams seem slightly more concerned about Holmgren's frame than previous slender prospects, yet with the NBA being more of a "length and skill" league, some of the most respected voices are clearly optimistic that what he does well will translate to the NBA. The questions are more along the lines of durability. You never want to fully downplay any physical concerns (Zion Williamson, Porzingis), but Holmgren has never needed to rely on physicality to have an impact, and that shouldn't change at the next level. Holmgren is maybe the most intriguing prospect I've evaluated not named Wembanyama over the past decade or so, skinny frame and all, and has done nothing to show me he shouldn't be the No. 1 pick in June. -- Mike Schmitz

How important will Holmgren's performance in the NCAA tournament be for his draft status? Is there a scenario where he plays his way out of the top 3?
It's hard to envision a scenario in which Holmgren drops draft wise, even if Gonzaga suffers an early upset in the first weekend, but that will also depend on how Duke's Banchero and Purdue's Jaden Ivey finish their seasons. Teams don't tend to overreact to one bad single-game performance in an environment like the NCAA tournament. With that said, leading Gonzaga to the Final Four with some strong performances against NBA-caliber big men would go a long way in solidifying himself at No. 1.

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Chet Holmgren rips the ball away from Gabe Stefanini and scores
Chet Holmgren makes a great defensive play for a steal and scores on the other end for Gonzaga.

Holmgren entered college in a very different situation than Banchero and Jabari Smith, playing alongside two upperclassmen in Drew Timme and Andrew Nembhard that put him in more of a complementary role. He looked passive at times in non-conference play, blending in and wanting to play the right way, passing up quite a few open shots in the process. He has looked like a completely different player in the WCC, allowing him to gain confidence while showing different facets of his game. Dominating in March like he has the past two months would bolster his cause significantly.

Gonzaga's coaching staff privately says they've encouraged Holmgren to be much more assertive recently and have found ways to utilize his unique skill set while still playing through Timme as their clear-cut go-to guy. Holmgren's struggles with the physicality of teams such as Texas, Texas Tech and Saint Mary's in Gonzaga's lone WCC loss does put some pressure on him to perform better in the NCAA tournament against those types of tough, veteran frontcourts. But it's difficult to see him falling out of the top-two based on what NBA teams are currently saying privately. -- Givony

Which of the most likely top-5 teams in the 2022 NBA draft would be best-suited to developing Holmgren at the next level? Which could be the worst fit?
Finding a situation in which Holmgren can play alongside a more physically developed interior force early on in his career -- while still being able to slide up to the 5 for stretches like Mobley does -- will be key. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, 13% of Mobley's minutes come at the 5, which feels like a solid target range for Holmgren. What teams in the top-10 can provide that?

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The Detroit Pistons jump out. I love Holmgren's fit alongside Isaiah Stewart in the frontcourt. Although he lacks in the height and vertical pop departments, Stewart is as physical of a center as you'll find in the NBA, and he's proven he's more than willing to throw his weight around with anyone regardless of stature. Stewart checking 5s would allow Holmgren to function more as a rover, using his length and instincts to change shots at the rim from the weakside or roam the perimeter on switches. Having big-bodied guards and wings in Cade Cunningham and Saddiq Bey would also allow the Pistons to switch more and take away offensive rebounds when Holmgren has to converge on downhill guards in pick-and-roll drop situations.

Then there would be the offensive fit with Cunningham. The Pistons rank 29th in 3-point accuracy, and Cunningham is in dire need of a floor-spacing big like Holmgren to give him room to operate. Holmgren doesn't play with an offensively aggressive, scorer-mentality, which fits well next to a hungry bucket-getter like Bey and allows him to also operate more as a third option with Cunningham running the controls. Mobley not having to be Cleveland's primary offensive option alongside Darius Garland, Allen, Collin Sexton (when healthy) and Caris LeVert is a big reason why he's looked so comfortable, so early in his career. The Pistons could offer a similar platform to function as an offensive blender and defensive rover.

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Chet Holmgren rocks the rim with jam
Chet Holmgren rocks the rim with jam

Holmgren is also an interesting fit next to the Orlando Magic's 250-pound Wendell Carter Jr. and Franz Wagner when Holmgren slides up to the 5. He'd mesh well with a post savant such as a 245-pound Alperen Sengun, (at least offensively) in Houston, as Sengun has some of the same strengths and weaknesses as Zags big man Timme.

Although they're currently projected outside the top-5, the big I'd like to see Holmgren paired with most is former Zag Domantas Sabonis in Sacramento. The Lithuanian lefty is powerful enough to battle traditional centers in the post, yet doesn't really shoot 3s or protect the rim, both things that Holmgren is elite at. The type of pick-and-roll combinations you could run with Sabonis and Holmgren would be glorious to watch. To a lesser degree, Holmgren could also unlock the best version of New York's Julius Randle.

As far as the most questionable fit, I'm not sure how Holmgren would look alongside some of the Pacers' current bigs. While he'd be must-see TV in pick-and-roll with guard Tyrese Haliburton, I'd be curious to see how he'd work alongside center Myles Turner, who, although a tremendous rim protector, isn't traditionally a great rebounder and prefers to do most of his damage beyond the arc offensively, like Holmgren. Rookie Isaiah Jackson, who has had some tremendous moments thus far, is incredibly light in his own right and doesn't have the body to bang with the 5s Holmgren will need him to early in his career. Holmgren is ultimately a much better player than all the aforementioned bigs, so his fit alongside key pieces like Haliburton and Chris Duarte should take priority. If the Rockets are committed to Christian Wood long-term, I'd wonder about that fit, as he makes more sense next to Sengun than Wood. -- Schmitz

 

i dunno. i think the increased spacing in the NBA will minimize the advantage Ivey currently has in his burst. i just love Davis' ability to get into his shots from left and right and he's gotta decent first step. I think his shot selection is an issue, but the way he moves reminds me of Booker/Roy/Allan Houston/etc. And you don't see swing guys averaging 8 rebounds a game. He gets after it.

 

Thanks @RR7 .

@blazerkor sent to me as well.

I am hoping he gets drafted before we feel obligated to choose him.

 

Nurk and Holmgren together would be heaven.

Chet is just ahead of his time. Next year there’s an even better version of him.

 

i feel like I'm the only one who consistently brings this up when comparing Chet with Jabari/Paolo. He's a year older than those dudes and his body is farther away. And this article repeatedly makes note of how amazing his numbers are a freshman in comparison to historical greats. But are they remembering that he's as old or older than some sophomores?

Hell, he's only 3 months younger than Davis/Ivey.

 

More than likely, unless we get really lucky with the ping pong balls, Jabari /Paolo will not be an option. I have a hard time thinking these two will slip. Chet on the other hand, because of his skinny frame, has the potential to slip. May 17th can't get here soon enough so we at least know where we pick.

 

I hope teams nitpick Chet similar to some fans so he can slip right into our hands.

 

I don't know if they have the combined foot speed necessary for two guys in the same lineup in today's NBA. I'm not saying that I know they don't, it's just a major concern of mine.

 

There's a lot of time between now and the draft. You have the tournament, then the combine and then you have individual workouts. I think there is a great chance that a team that grades out Chet higher than Jabari and Paolo wins the top pick. I also think that there's a chance in this draft where there is no clear cut number one that there could be wildly different draft boards for teams even as high as the top two picks. I agree that mid April and then May 17th cannot come soon enough so we know what we've got.

I think we end up with the 1st and 11th picks.

 

Gotta disagree with you there. There was no consensus #1 in that draft, so they went with the guy considered to have as much upside as any. The draft-Dirk timing was coincidental.

Many here thought it was a bad pick and were happy we didn't have the pressure of deciding who among the likely top-4 would pan out.

 

A better version of a generational talent?!

 

Shaedon Sharpe

 

hard to say generational when there’s a better version of him out there. Maybe they’re both generational lol but when they matched up with each other wembanyama was the better guy

 

Is tonight the night, that the Indiana Pacers get a win? They lead by 8 going into the 4th quarter against Cleveland.
The Pacers can't stop Darius Garland, but Tyrese Halliburton was on fire in the 3rd quarter.

 

nope. getting outscored 30-14 in the fourth