All right--this is where it gets interesting. Oddly enough, this is actually the one slot in the lottery where it's impossible for the Blazers to pick, but it's also the first spot where we'll see a wide spread in the picks. So after the consensus top-4, who do you hope drops to the Blazers?
It's frustrating laying it out, because I see a lot of guys that feel like good value at pick 10 that somehow feel like a reach at 5, but obviously somebody has to take the slot. Gamble on the unknown that is Shaedon? Go with the presumed high-floor-low-ceiling Murray? The impressive size/strength of Duren? The do-it-all SG in Davis? Hope Griffin can put it all together and stay healthy? I'm glad I'm not an NBA GM.
The irony here is that -- unless you believe in Sharpe's potential -- this probably is the shakiest slot in the lottery AND the slot where Portland would benefit more from picking than any other team ... yet they can't pick there without a trade. Unless they blow it out of the water in workouts, this is waaaaay too high value-wise for Duren and Eason and Agbaji and probably not good value for Davis, Murray or Washington either. If you're Portland selecting sixth, you hope the team picking here has fallen in love with Griffin or Washington. It's mind-blowing to me that essentially this year's Nas could be taken with the fifth pick, but that's where we are.
The key word for Griffin is skills. Imagine CJ McCollum in a 6'6" body. Griffin can create his shot and hit those shots from all over the place. He's not explosive but you will hear the word "crafty." Because of his shot creation ability and efficiency , he could end up better on offense than the suggested top 4. Edit: and he's 18 years old. Edit2: "Griffin previously dealt with two knee injuries: spraining his left knee in high school and his right knee before the start of this season." Some supporters of his have said that it's possible for him to return to where he was physically before his knee sprains. (I have no idea about that). Edit 3: "But an injury history is piling up, as this could be his third straight season in which he misses time. He sat out 2020-21 with an ankle injury, but he still earned spots on the McDonald's All-American and Jordan Brand Classic rosters. He averaged 17.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.6 steals in 12 games as a junior (in HS), but his season was cut short by a knee injury." https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ained-knee-after-suffering-injury-at-practice
Is there really a difference between say #6 and #10? At that point isn't it kind of a crap shoot? I mean if someone is ok at #10 or $12, are they really a reach at 6?
As I have said before, I would bet money I don't have that the Blazers will pick Shaedon Sharpe. Who would I pick? Well, let's just say I'm glad I don't have to. I like Johnny Davis a lot, but he's short. I have a nagging feeling that Keegan Murray is a flash in the pan: I have a rule - better take somebody who was WORSE in their last year of college than somebody who was suddenly much better. The former include Karl Malone most notably, the latter include a lot of busts. But fuck it, his draft bio says "low maintenance" and "really hustles" which is catnip for my ears (if that makes sense), so: him.
The Ringer really likes Jeremy Sochan (look at those player comps!), and I am totally on board with taking him with the Pelicans pick if we get it:
Ideally. I'm just not sure who we'd get as a trade partner. It seems like kind of a very narrow market there, where there's going to be a lot more value in that 9-13 range. If Sharpe, Murray and Mathurin all are available at 6, I keep going back and forth with what to do. Mostly, I think I'd pick Sharpe because I don't want this to be another buyer's regret like the Jermaine O'Neal or Ray Felton trades. There only are so many guys with Sharpe's potential in each draft. You'd be beating yourself up for years if he pans out and you have to deal with him for the next decade to try to get a higher seed or advance in the playoffs. If need be, he can be in the mix at the 3, although that decreases his value a little because he won't have the size advantage there like he does at 2. Murray is plug and play but not sure he ever is all-star level, plus, we'd be giving up height/length at four starting positions and probable off the bench. Mathurin is more an actually 3 than Sharpe and we MIGHT have a need there, but, my feeling kind of would be if you would be willing to draft Mathurin why not just draft Sharpe who has an even higher ceiling. Either way, we have several other resources to address the gaping hole at the 4 and the need for size and length. Presuming the Pels don't beat the odds and get into the playoffs, there are valuable legit 4s that should be on the board at 11 or even as far as 15 if you can trade down a couple of spots and gain a future second. You've got the Bledsoe contract, the trade exception, the MLE I believe, several potential trade chips ... there are a lot of ways to play it. Try to sign Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Smith ... still think he need a PG in the mold of DSJ or Dunn on the roster if not in the rotation ... I think what we decide to do with Joe Ingles is going to have a big impact on what we do overall.
BTW, there are A LOT of guys that I think should/would be of interest to the Blazers who still could be on the board when Portland makes its first pick in the second round and even extending further down: Badji, Kamagate, Kokoro, Tshiebwe, Bacot, Dieng, a few others. Bacot probably has played himself into the first round as long as he tests/works out well because of his tournament, but I don't think all those guys will be off the board. Badji and Kamagate are draft and stash possibilities. Tshiebwe I think could be a Taj Gibson-type player. There are things about Djieng that remind me of Nic Batum; really interesting sleeper.
Going to be interesting, heck we may be drafting for someone else and not know it at the time? Seems everyone/experts that say Sharpe is a top five and he probably is, are the same ones that say Chet is a top 1-3? I believe them as far as drafting goes.
I think that varies from draft to draft, but, this year, yeah, I think there's a gap. To me, it starts with having five guys that are a cut above that next group. Then I think you have Griffin, Mathurin, Murray, Johnny Davis and probably TyTy Washington. Now I know you say "OK, that's five guys that slot 6 to 10" and obviously it is. It's more a matter that there's such a gap between the top five and this five combined with the fact that a lot of those guys in the second five don't make sense for every team, not just saying by positional need but by style or because of other factors like injury questions, upside, roster makeup as a whole, etc. Some people think Duren is as good or better than any of those guys in my second five, for example, but I think drafting a guy with his bust potential at 6 would be insane. It's hard to explain. I guess what I'm trying to say with what you hope to get at the 6th pick, I'd feel a lot better picking one of these guys at 10, but you don't know if the one that might fit your team will be there at 10.
If the Blazers are at 6, Sharpe won’t be there - that’s my prediction. He is gonna fly up draft boards especially after workouts which teams seemingly overvalue. He will be drafted before Ivey.
Griffin has *no business* being in the top 5. Davis Holmgren Banchero Sharpe Ivey And I say that as a Duke “kinda” fan. And he isn’t nearly as skilled CJ. Not even close.
I was on Sochan when he was a “2nd rounder, might return to school” guy. Now he is flying up boards even beyond my liking. Best overall defender in the draft though. A Sharpe/Sochan draft is *chefs kiss*
Sochan intrigues me as well. But my gut says we trade that pick. Murray is the guy I think who will be available. His highlight film was great, but I was a little underwhelmed when I watched him in the tourney. Maybe my expectations were too high. I think he is a safe choice as a stretch 4 in today's NBA. But certainly does not have the highest ceiling.
