What should be done with Anfernee?

He might even have a quicker release on his jumper than Steph does…

 

I bet his numbers are better when CJ and Norm don’t play.

 

Better yet, look at PER and realize it's a crappy stat.

 

Holy shit, 2018 draft is gonna be an all-timer:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2018.html

Luka Doncic
Trae Young
DeAndre Ayton
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Michael Porter Jr.
Mikal Bridges
Miles Bridges
Anfernee Simons
Jalen Brunson
Robert Williams
Mitchell Robinson
Gary Trent Jr.
Collin Sexton

The number of starter+ level players in this draft just 4 years in is crazy.

Even the average picks are rotation or starter level players:

Wendell Carter Jr.
Jarred Vanderbilt
Donte Divencenzo
Grayson Allen
DeAnthony Melton
Shake Milton
Devonte Graham

 

I don't think it's a crappy stat in gauging players who average 30 minutes or more. Look at the top-20:



I don't see any outliers there except for maybe Harrell; but he's 2nd to Gobert in TS% this season so his efficiency bumps his PER up. There's no stat noise in the top-20

I don't even think there is much noise in the next 20 PER rankings:



but you will start to see players with lower minutes (Love, Robinson) who probably shouldn't be ranked. I thin PER normalized for minutes is a decent stat, but only so far. Getting down around 25 minutes introduces too much variance. PER actually does a good job of matching eyeball tests for the top 40-50 players. Lower than that, not so much

 

Or... maybe he IS a PG. Kudos to Anfernee for making great strides. He honestly didn't look like he could do it even a year ago, but now he's making really damn good passes and he's making the offense flow rather than just looking for his shot and then dumping it off if it's not there.

But he'll never be a good DEFENDER... (hee hee)

 

Good for you for admitting your miscalulation. I think he will become a good defender because he has Chauncey mentoring him AND he has unlimited energy. Simons often doesn't even look gassed after 38 minutes, just sweaty. Dame's big problem I believe has been Stotts and feeling drained after his Super Saiyan performances on the offensive end. He had to pull that energy from somewhere and that was defense which Stotts never really asked him to play. If Simons becomes an Average or better defender and so does Dame they could be the best back court in the league next year.

 

If

Looking at that list, the players with high PER are almost exclusively good players on good teams. I suspect that PER isn’t as good at identifying good players on poor teams.

 

and Kudos to you.
Respect.

 

I'm not sure that's accurate...maybe

KAT was 7th in 2019-20 when the Bulls were 19-45. The same season, Beal was 16th off of a 25-47 Wizards team

 

Its biggest weakness is with players who are good mainly for their defense. All box score stats have trouble measuring defense because they don’t have much to go on. Also players can get steaks, blocks, and rebounds while not being tirr the ally sound in defense.

 

My thought is that positive stats like assists are easier to get when you’re playing with better players. I’d think that negative defensive stats would be easier to avoid when you’re playing in a solid defensive scheme with better players. Great players are still going to shine, but good players might end up a few points lower on a bad team than they would score on a better team. I could certainly be wrong, but it would be interesting to follow up on some guys who moved from bad teams to good ones and see how thawing PER changed.

Edit: It seems to me that even the great players would likely have a better PER if they moved to a better team. I’m pretty sure that Dame’s shooting stats would be even better if he were playing in a team like the Nets where defenses couldn’t afford to double him constantly and where his teammates were stars also capable of making a clutch shot so that he didn’t have to take as many long bombs.

 

Poor teams have less good players, thats why they're poor.

 

Well, duh. But poor teams do have some good players and the question I have with the stat is whether there's an inherent bias in PER towards rating equivalent players on a good team higher than on a poor team. Basketball is a team sport. Putting up 10 assists on a stacked team is likely to be easier than on a team where you're passing to a bunch of bricklayers.

 

There's probably too much situational variability to get a good answer to that. Yes, it's easier to get an assist when [better] teammates are able to make shots, but you get a lot more opportunities to control the ball and rack up plus plays on a bad team ... unless you're a ball dominant player on a good team. That's a lot for a statistic to unravel.

 

I think that’s true as well. As far as I’m concerned, PER is interesting, but not a definitive measure of a player’s value. But that’s probably true of any attempt to quantify something like that.

 

Easiest answer I have had in a while, pay the man and keep him, then make a decision on Dame

 

This offseason, management should trade either Ant or Dame for whatever package helps the team the most.

STOMP

 

You keep him. You keep Ant and you start him with Dame and you figure out what to do with two of the most gifted scoring guards in the game after that.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bl...-anfernee-simons-free-agency-salary-cap-stats

Should the Blazers Keep or Yeet Anfernee Simons?

Portland’s off-season gets off to a roaring start with the big roster questions of 2022.