Can the Blazers realistically contend in the next 3 years?

[SharpesTriumph]

Do you believe this Blazers roster can be improved to realistically contend for a title in the next 3 years?

 

[KSF-ERIC]

Do you believe this Blazers roster can be improved to realistically contend for a title in the next 3 years?

The hardest part of building a contender is getting a superstar. We have that. In his last playoff series, he had a 55/10 (and 3 blocks) game in which he set the all time NBA record for threes in a single game (12). It was probably the second greatest all time playoff performance, second only to Michael Jordan's 63 against Boston. He's so good that even while injured and in a tanking year, he actually won NBA Player of the Week this season. So we have done the hard part. And we've shown that with players like Aminu and Harkless, a team can be built around him that can reach the WCF despite injuries. With the right moves, esp with the 7th draft pick and what that can grow into over 3 years, I'm going to say yes, we can realistically contend in the next 3 years. But then what does "contend" mean? The Nets were the overwhelming preseason pick to win the title this year. Did they "contend"? Barkley picked us to win it all two seasons in a row. Were we contending the last two seasons?

 

[Mediocre Man]

We have the wrong kind of superstar. I adore Dame, but please remember that we LOST the game where Dame scored 55

Dame is a fantastic offensive player, but the reason people say “defense wins championships” is because it’s true

Also, that WCF run was the worst thing that happened to us because even though we were gifted series wins because of injuries to stars on other teams, some, including our fucking GM thought we were better than we were.

To answer the OP’s question, it depends

Yes, we can absolutely contend in the next three years with the right moves. Most likely though we will be just good enough not to be good enough OR bad enough to contend anytime soon

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Do you believe this Blazers roster can be improved to realistically contend for a title in the next 3 years?

I think there are realistic paths that have been bandied about in this forum that could, with the right breaks, lead to this team being a contender. I have no idea if our current front office has the ability, creativity, or permission necessary to follow any of those paths. The trade-deadline deals suggest to me that they do not, but I've been wrong before and could be again. I also have no idea if there are other paths that haven't already been suggested in here that could get us there.

I think it's arrogant for any of us to claim we have enough knowledge to answer questions like these with any degree of certainty.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

I don't know? With luck yes. Without any luck probably not.

 

[STOMP]

Can they? Yes of course. I could realistically buy a winning lottery ticket as well.

The better question is what path forward gives them the greatest chance of building a contender again?

STOMP

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Can they? Yes of course. I could realistically buy a winning lottery ticket as well.

The better question is what path forward gives them the greatest chance of building a contender again?

STOMP

You are not wrong as this is being discussed in 12 other threads currently.

 

[blazerfan11]

If Golden State has a healthy roster, who in the Western Conference can get by them??

If Golden State isn't healthy then I think the Blazers can be a contender as much as any other team in the Western Conference.

Phoenix might be better but not much and Memphis has proven they could play great in the regular season.

that's how I feel going into next season.

 

[STOMP]

If Golden State has a healthy roster, who in the Western Conference can get by them??

If Golden State isn't healthy then I think the Blazers can be a contender as much as any other team in the Western Conference.

Given the ages of their big 3, the GSW's window as a contender is closing. I'd definitely put the Griz's talent ahead of Portland's, also the Clippers, Mavs, Timberwolves, Pelicans, & Nuggets to name a few. Hell the Thunder should start coming together with all their young talent soon too. Portland is several moves away from contending to my eyes.

STOMP

 

[crandc]

Warriors were out of the playoffs for two years. Teams can turn around quickly with good health and a few strategic moves.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Of course not.

 

[julius]

We have the wrong kind of superstar. I adore Dame, but please remember that we LOST the game where Dame scored 55

Dame is a fantastic offensive player, but the reason people say “defense wins championships” is because it’s true

Also, that WCF run was the worst thing that happened to us because even though we were gifted series wins because of injuries to stars on other teams, some, including our fucking GM thought we were better than we were.

To answer the OP’s question, it depends

Yes, we can absolutely contend in the next three years with the right moves. Most likely though we will be just good enough not to be good enough OR bad enough to contend anytime soon

The biggest issue why they lost the game where he scored 55 points was because no one else showed up and that team was shit outside of Dame and CJ.

And also, one thing to note, the games where he's scored more than 60 points, they're 2-1.

so for his career (not counting last year)

20-21 they were 5-1 when he scored over 40 (1-0 when he scored over 50)

In the 19-20 season, they were 5-1 in games where he scored over 50 points. (6-1)

In games he scored over 40, they're 8-3.

in 18-19, they were 3-3 when he scored over 40, 0-1 over 50. (6-2)

17-18 they were 4-0 scoring over 40, 1-0 over 50. (7-2)

16-17 3-2 over 40, 1-0 over 50. (8-2)

15-16 2-2 over 40, 1-1 over 50. (9-3)

14-15 2-0 over 40 (no games over 50)

13-14 0-1 over 40

12-13 no games over 40.

It's early so my math adding skills might be off, but in games over 50 he was 7-4. I think that's a 52 win game season over 82 (please someone correct my math if it's wrong).
*edited because my math sucks ass*

After re-calculating, it's 9-3. Not sure where I got 7 or the 4 from. So 9-3 over an 82 game season is 61.5 games.

(again, if my math is off, please correct it. I might have brain farted hugely here)

 

[Tince]

The hardest part of building a contender is getting a superstar. We have that.

You pretty much need 2 stars or a top 3 player in the league who has height/length to contend.

We need another star or Dame to grow to 6'8". Both would be ideal!

 

[THE HCP]

Well considering we will have a Top 5 pick again NEXT draft, sure.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Can they? Yes of course. I could realistically buy a winning lottery ticket as well.

The better question is what path forward gives them the greatest chance of building a contender again?

STOMP

I would say no I cannot realistically buy a winning lottery ticket. The chance is so slim its like saying I can walk out tomorrow and hit a hole in one.

To me realistically being able to do an action means there is a plausible chance to see it happen. It can be much less than 50%, but it should be something over 1%. Perhaps for people that take the question to a mathematical literal extreme I could have worded the question differently. I assumed a realistic chance is obvious that it is more than a one in a million type of longshot odds.

 

[craigehlo]

I don't see any prohibitive favorites on the horizon as the super team area is coming to a close. The biggest issue is the defense right now. Need to bolster to the front court (Ayton, Grant would be ideal) to even be mentioned in the conversation.

 

[Natebishop3]

We have the wrong kind of superstar. I adore Dame, but please remember that we LOST the game where Dame scored 55

Dame is a fantastic offensive player, but the reason people say “defense wins championships” is because it’s true

Also, that WCF run was the worst thing that happened to us because even though we were gifted series wins because of injuries to stars on other teams, some, including our fucking GM thought we were better than we were.

To answer the OP’s question, it depends

Yes, we can absolutely contend in the next three years with the right moves. Most likely though we will be just good enough not to be good enough OR bad enough to contend anytime soon

There were a couple different times where Dame being Dame thwarted a good chance to turnover the roster. The first was the season after LMA left. It was pretty obvious that Neil was angling to have a high pick that season. Dame had other ideas and we made the playoffs and got to the second round.

The second was when we made that WCF run. There was a number of us thinking the same way you do.

The third is after the pels series. Stotts should have been fired. CJ should have been traded. That was the time to blow it up. Neil didn’t have the balls or his ego was too big to admit defeat.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

Well considering we will have a Top 5 pick again NEXT draft, sure.

Start the tank now! Go for #1. Why be shy about it?
Who is projected #1 in the 2023 draft? Maybe we should start a thread about that?

 

[illmatic99]

We have the wrong kind of superstar. I adore Dame, but please remember that we LOST the game where Dame scored 55

This is just classic confirmation bias.

Jordan's career high of 63 in the playoffs came in a loss against Boston. Donovan Mitchell dropped 57 in a playoff loss 2 yrs ago vs Denver. Lebron had 51 in a finals loss at GS. Westbrook had 51 in a loss vs Houston. Jamal Murray had 50 in a loss vs Utah. Kobe had 50 in a loss at Phoenix. etc etc

The only takeaway from that game is that Dame can be a monster playoff performer and brings a selection of skills that few others can match. How you can spin that as a negative is wild.

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

Go get Ayton to play next to Dame and Ant and with a cast of decent role players we compete

 

[STOMP]

Warriors were out of the playoffs for two years. Teams can turn around quickly with good health and a few strategic moves.

Unfortunately Portland is only returning one future HoFer from injury, not three. Golden State also made some quality strategic moves to build around their core studs, but mostly their return to relevance is because of Curry, Klay & Draymond. Also having Looney return from a myriad of health issues has been key to their D and rebounding.

STOMP

 

[julius]

Please note that even with what I posted above, I still voted no.

 

[julius]

Well considering we will have a Top 5 pick again NEXT draft, sure.

I don't know, it's not like Dame doesn't have the track record of taking untalented teams to the playoffs.

Think about it this way, with an injured Dame, and him missing well over half the season, CJ got hurt, Nurk got hurt and they threw in the towel over the last what, 23 games, they were *still* only like 10-14 games out of playoff contention.

If there's no Dame next year, yeah, they're a top 5 pick. But add in healthy Dame, Simons, Nurk (the biggest if of the roster, imho), Hart, and maybe a decent PF signing, and they could be a playoff team again.

 

[illmatic99]

with the dearth of superteams, it's becoming far easier to achieve contender status than has been any other time in Dame's career. The template is there.

Build a strong defensive team that can shoot threes. And hope and pray for injury luck.

I think the road to a title is more open than it has ever been in recent history.

 

[julius]

I just realized something, Hart is probably the best wing option this team has had since Dame's like 3rd year in the league, with maybe only Batum being a better overall fit.

 

[wizenheimer]

I don't know if the poll is going the direction the OP thought it would

"realistically" is certainly a subjective word in this context

 

[blazerkor]

I actually think that if you can make Dame and Ant the actual sum of their parts on offense and not a liability on defense then that's the first step and that could be a reality under Chauncey. I think the deal I've talked about a little too much where we send 7 to Houston for Wood and 17, then 17 and hopefully not too much future draft capital but probably too much for Grant would make us a contender immediately. Not a title favorite but just a team that could beat any other team that I see in the league in a seven game series if things broke the right way for us.

Dame, Ant, Grant, Wood, Nurk, Hart, Nas, Justise, backup big with pick 36, Trendon, Keon, Greg, Didi and pick 57.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

We have the wrong kind of superstar. I adore Dame, but please remember that we LOST the game where Dame scored 55

Dame is a fantastic offensive player, but the reason people say “defense wins championships” is because it’s true

Also, that WCF run was the worst thing that happened to us because even though we were gifted series wins because of injuries to stars on other teams, some, including our fucking GM thought we were better than we were.

To answer the OP’s question, it depends

Yes, we can absolutely contend in the next three years with the right moves. Most likely though we will be just good enough not to be good enough OR bad enough to contend anytime soon

Hello. This post far exceeds mediocrity. Couldn't agree with this more.

 

[Mediocre Man]

The biggest issue why they lost the game where he scored 55 points was because no one else showed up and that team was shit outside of Dame and CJ.

And also, one thing to note, the games where he's scored more than 60 points, they're 2-1.

so for his career (not counting last year)

20-21 they were 5-1 when he scored over 40 (1-0 when he scored over 50)

In the 19-20 season, they were 5-1 in games where he scored over 50 points. (6-1)

In games he scored over 40, they're 8-3.

in 18-19, they were 3-3 when he scored over 40, 0-1 over 50. (6-2)

17-18 they were 4-0 scoring over 40, 1-0 over 50. (7-2)

16-17 3-2 over 40, 1-0 over 50. (8-2)

15-16 2-2 over 40, 1-1 over 50. (9-3)

14-15 2-0 over 40 (no games over 50)

13-14 0-1 over 40

12-13 no games over 40.

It's early so my math adding skills might be off, but in games over 50 he was 7-4. I think that's a 52 win game season over 82 (please someone correct my math if it's wrong).
*edited because my math sucks ass*

After re-calculating, it's 9-3. Not sure where I got 7 or the 4 from. So 9-3 over an 82 game season is 61.5 games.

(again, if my math is off, please correct it. I might have brain farted hugely here)

And the playoffs? Totally different defenses in the playoffs

 

[julius]

And the playoffs? Totally different defenses in the playoffs

1-1 in the playoffs when he scores over 50.

Over 40? 2-2.

2 of those losses came against Denver, when while the Blazers were "supposed" to win, that Blazers team was shit on a shingle.