With the #7 pick, the Portland Trail Blazers select....

This has also been my preference. If someone better than Grant is available, then sure trade #7. If not, keep the 7th pick and trade a future pick for Grant. If Detroit says no, then tell the Pistons to FO.

 

Jeremy Sochan is 2 years and 9 months younger than Keegan Murray. Sochan just turned 19 years old on May 20 and Murray will be 22 years old on August 19th.
Murray shot the identical 3-point percentage to Sochan in his freshman season, .296. Murray jumped to .398 on 3-pointers in his sophomore season. Making a big jump in the sophomore season happens to a lot of players.
Could that happen with Sochan too, as an NBA rookie? I don't know, but Sochan did shoot 36 % on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, which is what he'd be doing with the Trail Blazers.

With his 39% 3-point shooting and 62% 2-point percentage (he has fantastic touch off the glass), Murray is a super-efficient scorer that had a true shooting percentage of 64%.

Sochan is a beast on defense with a high BBIQ and motor. He can defend 1-4 and sometimes 1-5. He can play PF and small-ball C. He's got good dribbling and passing skills for a guy his size. His 3-point shooting isn't good, but it's at the level of Draymond Green. It's much better than Watford's 23.7%. And his catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage (36%), if it can be maintained, is fine.

Both of these players would be great fits for the Trail Blazers. Pretty much guaranteed that one or both of them will be available at pick #7.

 

Certain things can’t be taught

length
athleticism
Bb iq
High motor

 

Do Dame and Cronin rhetoric make you think a rookie will be on the roster?

I doubt it, they will want to trade the rookie for a veteran.

 

That doesn't mean they will trade the pick for any Vet. I think we all would want to trade it for a difference-maker. But if that opportunity does not become available then I doubt either one of them will want to pass on a rookie with excellent potential.
They can still get a vet if they keep the pick.

Dame is no idiot. If he sees talent in a player they bring in to evaluate, he will warm up to him.

 

Remember when 2012 All-Star Deron Williams and his GM wanted a veteran instead of that 2012 6th pick so they could "win now?"

 

I didn't actually have Nurk on the team in this situation but to answer your question Randle is a really great passing big who has the ability to facilitate offense on a level most PGs don't.

 

Randle isn't a good 3-point shooter, 33% over the last 3 seasons. If you take out his magical 3-point shooting season of 2020-2021, when he shot 41 percent on three pointers, Randle averaged 28 percent 3-point shooting in his 6 other seasons.
He's erratic over the years on his overall shooting efficiency.

He's 27 years old and has 4 years left on his contract (I am counting his player option on the 4th year), starting with $26 million next season.

He is good at getting to the free-throw line, which increases his scoring efficiency, but at 53% True shooting percent in the last 3 seasons, not great. His career TS% is 55 percent.

He's a good passer.

 

I'm not married to any of the ideas I'm throwing out there to be honest. In fact I kinda hate the idea of a Randle/Nurk front court on the defensive side, I don't think it has enough speed. That being said, Randle would be a great offensive weapon with Dame, his ability to get his own shot going to the whole or posting up and set others up, along with his ability to shoot the ball because despite wanting to minimize it he had an entire season of high volume shooting (5.5 threes attempted a game) at 40%... that's not magic, it's him being engaged and a system that works for him. If he was playing with Dame and Ant, I would want him to see himself as a secondary playmaker and third option scoring... if he was playing with Dame, Ant and Grant, I think he'd drop to the fourth option.

The thing that would make me happy that seems to be out there as a realistic possibility would be for us to trade back to 9 and 25, grab Sochan at 9, use 25 and hopefully not a lot more to get Grant in here with the TPE and then draft a solid backup C at 36 (Robinson or Koloko). We'd need to add a PG for depth either by moving up from the 55th pick in the second round or with the TPMLE. I would be willing to see how that team would do and would be cool if that was the outcome of our off season. If it turns out better than that on paper, I'll be thrilled.

The questions that will need to be answered are: Does the Dame/Ant backcourt work both as equal or more than the sum of their parts on offense and functional on defense? Can Grant embrace a new role here and be a lot more effective without opposing defenses putting all of their attention on him? Just how good can Sochan be? Because I think he's really gifted and has a high motor and could be special. Can our bench be a strength? A bench of Hart, Nas, Justise, backup C, backup PG and the younger guys seems like it could be really strong. The last question is a big one, can we stay healthy? Nas, Justise and Nurk are huge question marks on that one.

 

These are catch-and-shoot stats for player with 3 or more total 3-point attempts for the regular season. #1 was Anfernee Simons. If the Blazers can get him the ball often for catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, that backcourt could be really good.


Edit: Correction - these are Catch-and-shoot numbers for players taking 3 or more Catch-and-shoot threes (not 3 or more 3-pointers overall). Simons averaged 7.8 three-pointers a game.
Also notice that Simons had the highest overall shooting percentage of any player who took 3 or more catch-and-shoot 3-pointers (I re-ordered it by overall shooting percentage and Simons, Curry, Harris, Kennard were still the top 4 in that order).

 

Since we're getting closer to the draft, I thought I'd post a few of my charts that look at some draft history/trends:

Here's a look at all of the Blazers draft choices over the years. The x-axis is the draft pick number, and the y-axis is the Win-Share for the player drafted. I did this a few years ago, so some of the active and newer picks may not be up to date. The solid line is the average WS for the league for that pick number.



The Blazers have found some gems over the years (over the line), and quite a few duds (under the line).
Note: Oden was not the Blazers worst #1 pick (based on WS). Do you know who was?

Here's a fun little analysis of the expectation at each draft pick. The x-axis is the draft pick, and the y-axis is the percent chance of drafting an all-star or starter. I defined a starter as a player that starts over half of their career games.



I did this chart quite a few years ago, so it definitely fluctuates. But it gives you a good general idea of what to expect from each draft position. The Blazers drafting at #7 this year have about a 70% chance of getting a solid starter, and about a 14% chance of nabbing an all-star.

With all of that said, here are my preferences for this year:
At the #7 spot:
- Keegan Murray
- Tari Eason
- Jalen Duren
- AJ Griffin

Potential second rounders;
- Mark Williams
- Walker Kessler
- Kendall Brown
- Wendell Moore

I hope the Blazers don't trade the #7 pick, especially for Grant. He's a good player and all, but he's not the missing piece to get us over the top and contend. We need to start building for the future. I think we're going to have a few nice options there at #7.

 

Was Clyde Drexler (#14) off the top of the chart?

(Edit....I see the note below. My goodness.....WAY OFF THE TOP of the chart!)

 

Still our best blazer ever. Even if he doesn't rep us anymore. If it wasn't for MJ, we would have won one.

 

Two second round picks would be my guess given their track record.

 

If option B is better than keeping the 7th pick, good. The predominant opinion in the media among basketball people is something other than keeping the pick. Blogs, too.

Since the single greatest odds of a pick was 7, not 6, for Portland’s pick in the lottery, I’ll go with that.

Murray > Sochan > Daniels

 

Mark Williams in the second round?
What’s the strain of the month big dog? I want some of that

 

Yup Ant is absolutely deadly on catch and shoot, significantly better than MeJ and he also is a vastly, vastly better passer. If his defense can get to average or above that backcourt could be the deadliest since Klay and Steph and should be better than CP3 and Booker as soon as next year (cumulative Dame>> Booker and Ant >>>aging CP3).

 

What is Bill Walton's Win-Share?

 

39.3 Win-Share. Bill Walton is the little grey dot beside the picture of Sam Bowie.

Interesting that our most productive (by Win Share) #1 pick was Mychal Thompson (59.1 Win-Share). But even he was below average for the #1 pick.

 

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/in...aft-projecting-all-58-picks-nba-draft-combine

Updated top 10:

Jabari
Chet
Paolo
Ivey
Keegan
Daniels
Sharpe
Mathurin
Duren
Johnny Davis

Sochan & Eason falling to 16 & 18.

Have us taking PBJ at 36 and Ron Harper Jr @ 57. Was hoping Bryce McGowens was there at 36.