This is building a sand castle, waiting for the tide to come in, but here's how I'd currently break out minutes distribution for the current roster... where am I totally wrong? Some notes: Roster I count us retaining Grant, Thybulle, and Eubanks I have us let Winslow, Mays, and other random dudes go I didn't include Johnson or Rupert, even though they probably will be on the roster I didn't assume any other trades or additions Minutes general thinking I started with a baseline of 70 games played each. That seems like a reasonable "healthy season" starting point. Obviously some will play more games, and unfortunately some will play fewer... probably markedly fewer. This doesn't account for any OT games, so a couple of those would add in more minutes There's not really many "garbage minutes" here set aside. There are about 80 minutes unaccounted for, which is just under one minute a game Changes from last year I introduced Scoot at 22 mpg, which is about as many minutes as Sharpe got this year over 80 games, including the tanking efforts where he played a lot more than he otherwise would have I gave Murray 12 mpg... a stab in the dark I scaled back Dame and Grant, since they are a bit older and we'd want to help keep them healthy for the playoffs I scaled back Ant a bit, mainly because we're deeper in the back court. 32 mpg is still pretty substantial Thybulle takes the biggest haircut, which is because I think he's just not very good. He averaged 16.9 mpg overall last year, which was his career low. 16 minutes is probably a bit too low, but it's what I think makes the most sense. Sharpe, Walker, and Watford take the biggest jumps in MPG. With our current roster we need quality time from Walker and Watford and I think they can earn minutes in the front court. There are SO MANY THINGS that I know I got wrong. I probably have typos. I probably am wrong about what the roster is going to be like. You probably think it's ridiculous to think of Little playing two minutes a game at PF. It's OK. I'm not married to this by any means but I'd love to hear what you think of it.
Why? People are saying there aren't enough minutes for Dame/Scoot/Ant/Sharpe. Is it too early to say that? It seems like I'm laying out a scenario that gives plenty of minutes for those four guys, and unless we add another guard that won't change whether it's today or September.
I'd put more of Sharpe's minutes at SF if all 4 of himself, Dame/Scoot/Ant are active for a game. So probably 20 minutes at SF and 12 at SG - which thus gets Scoot closer to 30 mpg. But the odds they are all healthy isn't that high - especially after the first 15 games of the season. I'd say probably 65% chance someone is missing any single game after that. The team could afford to sit guys more often if they have minor injuries vs prior years having to play so Keon isn't starting at PG. So even if Scoot starts closer to 22 mpgs - he will probably have many games someone is out and he is playing 30-35mpg. I really don't think the minutes crunch for Dame/Ant/Scoot/Sharpe next season is a big deal. If all 4 play and Scoot/Sharpe prove they deserve to start it could potentially be an issue before the 2024-25 season. But next year should be fine. Much more of an issue is who are the frontcourt/center players the Blazers can have on the roster to play those other minutes and provide some defense? The quad group has all the scoring covered - we need defense from the frontcourt. Also we need legit tall centers if Nurk predictably misses more time. Eubanks is better as a 3rd string guy than a key primary backup.
That's the thing that jumps out to me, too, more than "too many good guards with not enough minutes". I actually initially slugged in a "Free Agent Big" placeholder, but in the spirit of doing my best with what we have now, I decided not to do it. Relying on Walker and Watford seems a bit foolhardy, but that's not exactly sticking my neck out by saying that.
I love that the basket stands and we only got a technical. So we netted 1 point. Teams should try this more often.
Billups needs rookies to bench, while the camera zooms in on him giving young players in-game on court lectures. Makes Chauncey look like a real NBA coach. Plenty more rookies on the team now.
I actually was thinking about that... how likely is he to give even Scoot 22 minutes a game, assuming the team doesn't have to tank again 75% of the way through the season? It'll be interesting to see.
Unless we're tanking, I hope Billups isn't giving anyone minutes, but that guys like Scoot can earn them in practice and/or by producing in games.
Great effort. As you mentioned, this entire thing has to be based off a decent amount of assumptions, but it clearly paints the picture that the roster is: Unbalanced Not talented enough to compete Lacking enough quality on-ball defenders
