Game Thread 2023-24 PRESEASON - BLAZERS @ JAZZ - OCTOBER 14, 2023 - SATURDAY - 6:00 PM - ROOT, NBA LP

That's Camara. Our new Mathews.

 

Another observation: WOW Rupert looks like a big guard out there. Where he spends his career more between the 2 and 3 will probably depend on how much weight he gains. I wouldn’t be surprised if he did gain that one inch. But regardless, he looks nearly 6’8 in shoes while the average PG is probably 6’3 and SG is probably 6’6.

 

10-12 threes, 4-6 FT attempts. That is the recipe for an ELITE scorer. I've noticed he is making a concerted effort to drive more.

 

Ant's 3pt shooting over last 3 seasons:

2020-21: 3PA = 4.4....3ptFG% = .426
2021-22: 3PA = 7.8....3ptFG% = .405
2022-23: 3PA = 9.1....3ptFG% = .377

this is a sample size of 3 years and 1286 shots. That's right, 1286 three's. Pretty solid evidence there is a correlation between his average shots/game and his conversion rate. And this was done when Dame was on the floor 75% of the team's time, absorbing the focus of opposing defenses. Ant will get a lot more defensive attention this season.

 

YES those were the figures I was kind of using to project his PPG total this year as well. My realistic number for him that I would be happy with this year is 26ppg.

12 3’s a game at 40% would be 15pts. If his percentage is higher, the 3PTA can come down a bit. I think he should should 20FGA, so that’d leave 8 2PTAs so even with a slight uptick on his 53% from last year, and that’s over 8pts. That would put him at 23ppg.

It’s going to come down to FTA, and he’s going to have go really want to get to the line. He averaged 3 last year and he’s almost a guaranteed 90% shooter. If he is even within the top 40 in FTA (5 FTA), he’d be well over that 25ppg mark. He has the ability, I’ve seen him bully his way to the bucket through Trae Young the last 2 seasons and he’s shown a lot of great finishes over guys like Mikal. His progression as a finisher has been a lot slower than I thought it would be, but it’s still progressing nonetheless.

 

Is it really true Dame was on the floor 75% of the time in those 3 years? If so, that’s a fair point you’re making. I’m kind of taking a more optimistic approach within the full context of everything in the last 3 years.

In ‘20-‘21, he showed that he’s a pretty good spot up shooter at 42.6%. But that was on low volume, only 4.4 attempts. Ant was playing 17 minutes and averaging 8pts that year.

In ‘21-‘22, he’s showing a little more with the Dame and CJ injuries. Now it’s like “woah, okay we kind of have ourselves a potential 2nd Dame, he has all the moves to get his 3’s off like Dame does”. But this was also his first real opportunity to do this, and it wasn’t for a full season.

For ‘22-‘23, I’ve listed the context in my last reply.

A lot of my optimism for Ant’s shooting to come back up is because of Scoot and going young. I think Ant has a chance of not only going reverting to the success he had back then, but also maintaining those percentages on higher volume playing on a younger team.

Ant is getting to that point where he can pull up from anywhere inside of 30 ft and he can get it up so quick. How many great looks is Ant going to get a game just trailing and finding the right spot for wide open 3’s? Just based on last night’s highlights, Ant is literally a threat on the perimeter whether he is 15-25ft to Scoot’s left, or Scoot’s right. As soon as Scoot sees Ant’s man paying too much attention to him, he has Ant to bail him out. Ant could probably get 6-10 3PTA on spot ups playing with Scoot in the game. Ant was still well over 40% as a spot up shooter in ‘21-‘22.

Even though he was over 40% on spot ups in ‘21-‘22, his overall percentage dipped because he got more of an opportunity to handle the ball and pick his spots to shoot like how Dame normally would. The problem is he hasn’t shown to be great at it yet, and that remained a problem last season. However, I expect him to get better at that part of his game, not worse.

The one thing I hope for less of is 3’s that take 6-8-10 dribbles.

 

Absolutely....which should help the other players on the floor.

 

It took THIS game to tell you that FAMS!
He will be our leading scorer this season by far. And people are on here talking about NOT starting him?

 

It will work both ways. When Simons played without Lillard in the past it was usually with a hodgepodge lineup.

Everyone knows Scoot is going to go at the hoop and they're going to load up in the paint.

 

Check the avatar baby.

 

just like Dame absolutely helped Ant and CJ, even though some people kept insisting they'd do better without Dame

 

Well, Simons did do better without Dame. That’s a demonstrable fact. His stats were significantly better when he was the primary lead guard without Dame. He looked pretty damn good last night.

 

so did CJ....based upon usage and opportunity and shots, all are volume-based gauges. Efficiency and wins were another matter. But we kind of know now those were generally empty-calorie stats. When Dame was out CJ's usage averaged around 33%-35%. He would have led the league in FGA and dribbles...and he would have still been the same player. He had his worst season as a starter last year without Dame by his side. Of course, the Pels were actually trying to win games and make the playoffs. I don't think Ant will have that burden

yes, Ant looked good last night. I'm sure he'll continue to shoot 80% on FG's and 63% on three's. That seems realistic

I fully expect Ant to average 23-24 ppg. Might even creep above 25. But at last year's efficiency, he'd need over 20 FGA/game. With Grant, Ayton, Scoot, Sharpe and the rest of the roster, I'd wonder if that many shots for Ant will land well with the rest of the guys, especially if the Blazers are losing regularly while Ant is shooting

maybe Ant will be different than CJ and actually find an upward track he can sustain while on a playoff team. I'm skeptical though

 

I'm not just talking about last night. We can look at the stretch while Dame was out two years ago, as well as a few stretches last season. He just plays better without Dame.

 

again...so did CJ, at least in terms of volume. And efficiency needs a sample size of a half season or more to be believed

 

We shall revisit this conservation in a year lol

 

maybe

the way I'm looking at it, the argument seems to be that Ant & CJ need to be the #1 options to maximize their numbers, not necessarily their efficiency. It's a matter of volume; a matter of quantity. But neither player, IMO, will ever be a good enough #1 to lead a good team. If Ant can't be his best playing with Dame, I don't believe he'd be his best playing with Kawhi or Giannis or Tatum or Curry or Lebron or Doncic or SGA. Scoring 24 ppg on 20 shots is not really different than 21 ppg on 17 shots, unless the team is winning a majority of games

maybe Ant has another gear I can't see and he'll shift into it in his 6th season. I could be wrong but I think his ceiling is visible.

 

Well wait, that’s a lot of things that I don’t subscribe to. I will only sign my name next to him being better without Dame. I don’t think he’s a viable number one on a good team. I never thought CJ was either. I just thought, at that time, that he could make an All Star team as a number one option. I wouldn’t go that far now because there are so many short scoring combo guards just like them.

 

I'll say this, I never once believed CJ was going to be an all-star. I really doubt Ant can but I wouldn't rule it out like I did with CJ

I agree, there's a significant population of smallish guards with good offensive games right now. I do think when coaches vote for all-star reserves they weight defense as a factor if two similar guards both have a case. That will always hold guys like CK, Poole, Ant, etc back

things are opening up a little in the West. CP3 has aged out; Curry is 34; Dame is in the east now; Morant is a nutcase; Mitchell is also in the east now

Morant-Bane-Murray-Doncic-Edwards-Curry-Klay-SGA-Booker-Beal-Fox...still really crowded

Ant would first have to separate himself from this crowd:

Jalen Green
Kevin Porter
Austin Reaves
Keldon Johnson
CJ
Kelden Johnson
Colin Sexton
Malik Monk
Josh Giddey
Jalen Williams

most should be easy to pass, but not all

 

Jalen Williams is projected to start at PF. Oversized guards with undersized forwards. Lu Dort is 6' 4.25" in shoes and Jalen Williams is 6' 6" in shoes.