This wasn't Oregon's sharpest night, but the transitive property game doesn't usually work that well in football. Oregon dominated the game tonight and more or less had their way on offense, despite the score. If they played again next week, the spread would probably be more than the 15.5 it was today. Credit to USC for all the 4th down conversions and some timely big plays.
I would be of the opinion that a few calls cost the Ducks about 14 points. Not blaming refs but more that the Ducks made some crucial errors that cost them putting 50 points on the board. They also could very well have made a couple plays that would not have given the Trojans an extra 7. That's football.
I’m sure Vegas will over value UO. I’m guessing the spread will be 7-7.5. I’m not going to even take the spread, I’ll take OSU on the moneyline if its +330 or better.
You guys are making my point for me. SC’s defense is historically bad. The worst in program history and the worst in all of college football this season. The only PAC-12 teams that didn’t put up 40+ against us were Stanford, ASU, Utah (playing with their 3rd string QB put up 34 at the Coliseum) and UO. We were not a good team this year. All SC fans knew we were in trouble when Grinch wasn’t fired. We knew we were in trouble when we couldn’t stop San Jose St in our opener. We knew we were in trouble when Colorado dominated us in the 2nd half. And we knew we were frauds when Notre Dame humiliated us in South Bend. Unfortunately for me, being a fan of the Blazers and SC, I think I’ve had to witness some all-time level of incompetent defensive play concurrently in recent years.
Ducks sat back and let the win come in the 2nd half. They could have opened it up and piled on any time they wanted. They were working on things. Trying to get other guys looks. After sleeping on it, I think maybe they were trying to establish Tez as an option on tape to to open the other guys up more in future games.
Looks like Lanning is in the top tier of coaches Texas A&M will be after. Oregon coach Dan Lanning: Oregon's hire of Lanning after the 2021 season surprised some, but has so far been a home run. Lanning has maintained Oregon's trajectory in recruiting while arguably elevating it on the field. The Ducks are a contender for possibly their first CFP appearance since the inaugural event in 2014. Lanning is 19-4 at the school, recording an AP No. 15 finish and a Holiday Bowl win in 2022. The only knock against him has been rivalry games, as three of his four losses came against Washington or Oregon State. Lanning also has SEC ties after serving as Georgia's defensive coordinator from 2019 to 2021, after joining the staff in 2018. The 37-year-old was rewarded by Oregon with a contract extension earlier this year that includes a $20 million buyout.
watched the game at my in-laws house after a dinner there; they will be snow-birding down to Scottsdale where they spend half the year, dodging Oregon winter anyway, they are ex-Southern Cal people and long-time fans of UCLA basketball and USC football. Yeah....scumbags anyway, I had to somewhat mitigate by Duck fandom. Not by much...just a no-fly zone with my usual profanity...which is a sacrifice for me...by the way, remember Mark Twain's words: "profanity offers a comfort not available in prayer" so yeah...I was a little restrained although the two early long TD's helped relieve pressure, and made it a joyful time, for the most part, till the 4th Q Ducks were clearly the better team. Quite a bit better than the score implies. But Oregon seemed hellbent on shooting their own webbed feet way too often. Dropped passes by Tez killing drives; Troy Franklin tripping over chalk on a sure TD; busted coverage's in the secondary; the defense uncharacteristically giving up a 3rd down conversion rate like last year. And of course, the whistles and flags. Most were legit although the Connerly hold wasn't, and the 4th down PI that would have given Oregon the ball on USC's 30 up 36-14 and effectively killing the Trojan's comeback hopes was absolute bullshit...one of the worst I've seen I don't know if the Ducks were too hyped up; so much so they lost focus. Or maybe it's just hard to play error-free football every weekend and there will be brainfart games like that one. But for sure, the Ducks have been playing cleaner FB than last night for weeks. Maybe it was because it was their first Pac-12 After Dark game of the year still, a win is a win is a win. Now the Ducks have to survive the ultimate trap game in Tempe, and then win a game against the beevurs when both teams will be looking at revenge and redemption. Not an easy path by the way..big sighs of relief that it wasn't serious injuries for Bucky and JPJ. Worry about Oregon's starting CB's
If you think OSU is going to beat Oregon, you should take them on an even moneyline, right? If you need to wait to get +330 odds, then you obviously don't think they're going to win, you think they have less than a 24% chance of winning. I believe Oregon is 8-2 against the spread this year, so if anything, they've been undervaluing them. Beavs ate 6-4 vs the spread. USC is 3-8 against the spread, with last nights backdoor cover.
That's not how it works my friend. There's a difference between me thinking they're going to win versus if I would place a wager on them. If I just wanted to give away money I would take any number. But the numbers have to make sense. Especially this late in the season. You don't get as much value. If I were looking to bet on OSU, I would've wanted UO to absolute destroy SC last night.
Uh, that's exactly how it works... If you think the probability of something is greater than 50% and you can get even money odds, then you have a positive expected value. It's simple math.
instead of praying another Oregon coach leaves, you should be worried about Smith, but I imagine you already are besides that, instead of thinking about Lanning-->A&M, you should be thinking about A&M players-->Oregon. If Jimbo is fired there is an immediate 30 day window in the transfer portal for A&M players. And Oregon finished 2nd in recruiting several A&M players, like David Hicks for instance I'm pretty sure Oregon is a better job than A&M. The boosters aren't fucking insane at Oregon like they are at A&M. Oregon would likely match any offer up to 10M/year. And with Texas & Oklahoma moving to the the SEC next year, any recruiting advantage A&M had is gone Fisher has a 75M buyout; Lanning's is 20M. At some point, even rich+insane will weigh options
I mostly agree with this. Though, any program willing to pay $75m to buy out a coach will also be willing to pay $20 to buy out his replacement, if they believe he's the far superior option.
