Oregon Ducks 2023!

I have seen first hand how it can fuck someone over. Best advice I can give anyone is to never find yourself on the wrong side of the law. Luckily my friend was able to come out the other side relatively unscathed. But the truth of our system is that guilt and innocence does not matter. All that matters is what can be proven. Our legal system doesn’t care if you’re innocent. They will fuck you over as hard as they can if they think they can get away with it.

 

It's a bad situation. Sub-optimal for all parties involved, with OSU/WSU getting the worst end of the deal.

If they do go nucular, this will get tied up in court for many years, and I'm not sure those two schools have the resources to last that long.

 

They could call it 1-2. Or between the two schools, there’s 12 inches? Somewhere?

 

Ditto. I've seen two different, yet easily as crazy situations play out as well.

The system is setup where people are promoted based off wins/losses, not producing the correct verdict and handing out a meaningful punishment. Prosecutors with the most wins become DA's, DA's who get the longest convictions typically become judges, etc etc.

This WSU judge knows where his bread is buttered. UW will probably get a favorable ruling at the next level. In the end, it will take way too long, with lawyers making way too much money. The fair settlement to all this seems so simple:

1. All 23-24 revenues should be distributed equally 12 ways because those parties fulfilled their contracts and the GOR has no breakup clause.
2. All liabilities should be disributed equally 12 ways. (example: Comcast overpayments)
3. OSU/WSU get all the remaining assets starting the fall of 2024 and they can do whatever they want with them.

Simple

 

the departing Pac-10 put that offer on the table 2-3 months ago and OSU/WSU have repeatedly refused that offer and any tinkering around the edges of that offer. Their counter-offer (according to Jon Wilner) has been that each of the 10 schools give up at least 10 million or more from their share of the 2023-24 revenue; and the 10 schools must cover the cost of all liabilities. In other words, OSU/WSU get to split at least 100M. But it's also clear they are dreaming about taking all the current season's revenue

that big of a number is plenty of incentive for the Pac-10 to fight, and generates a willingness to make the fight an extended one.

reading the tea leaves, and it doesn't take an expert since OSU/WSU have actually spoken about it: they are imagining using that windfall as the leverage to re-format the PAC by using the money to help cover the MWC teams' exit fees from their GOR with Fox/CBS. IIRC, those are 16-18M next season, and around 10M in 2025-26. The Pac-2 desperately want to remain the PAC with them as the two premier partners (perhaps with an uneven share of media revenue); they don't want to join the MWC.
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I think OSU/WSU have used a risk/reward scale and have decided that the chance at a large reward outweighs the risk. Maybe they are right. They now have that ruling by the judge, although it is rather limited in scope. The appearance of judicial bias is real and substantive which is almost certainly the reason why the judge made clear he would not let the Pac-10 be treated "unfairly" in favor of the Pac-2. But right now, it's the initial call on the field. The appeal is to the Washington Supreme Court, but they don't have to accept the appeal. They could dismiss it or more likely refer the appeal to the state appellate court in Spokane. Or they might hear it.

whatever the immediate actions are, I think it's pretty clear that if the Pac-2 call a board meeting and vote to take any actions that 'harms' the Pac-10 there will be an immediate lawsuit filed. And that lawsuit could be in California state court (where the PAC headquarters and facilities are), or even in Federal court. And the worst thing that could happen to the Pac-2 is this ending up in Federal court

you're right that there seems to be fertile ground for a fair and just compromise and settlement. I don't think the Pac-2 is interested

 

Agreed. Picking a rural Washington county judge was intentional by the Pac2, but won't hold up.

The lawyers are going to win in this silly fight, once again.

 

They could join another conference and eliminate the need to pay schools for 7 home games.

 

Yes. I'd say it would be easier to join the Mountain West at this late of a date than it would be to independently schedule a bunch of non-conference games in Oct/Nov.

And certainly there has been an agreement between WSU/OSU and the MWC for months now, but the Pac2 is trying to get as many resources as possible before announcing. If they announced two months ago, they would have done the same thing the other 10 schools did, which would have all but eliminated their court case.

 

Convert to an XFL team and join their season?

 

Couldn't they still join the MWC?

 

that's probably another reason they want to land some kind of windfall from the PAC's dissolution.

the current MWC media deal is tiny:




so, for 12 schools. That would be about 96M divided 12 ways over the next two seasons. 8M per school. If OSU/WSU join and took an even split, that share for each school would drop from about 8M to 6.85M. When you're only making 8M, a 1.2M cut is substantial

but if the Pac-2 joined and didn't take a share because they had made an extra 20-30M off of the departing Pac-10, they could leave the other schools 'whole'

theoretically, Fox/CBS could kick some additional money the MWC's way for adding OSU/WSU and getting those two on the TV schedule. But Fox/CBS know that the Pac-2 has been talking to the MWC about breaking their GOR with Fox/CBS. They also have to be aware that the Pac-2 threatened them with litigation and discovery. So I don't know if Fox-CBS would be willing to add money to their annual pay-out to the MWC

 

I don’t know what a “fair” split is, but I’m not sure it’s a good look for the schools moving to other conferences for bigger pay days to be insisting on a “fair” split. There’s no doubt that OSU and WSU have been economically screwed by the actions of the departing universities.

 

the Athletic has an article out to day with some 'new' info:

"Now, the schools hope to finalize their future scheduling arrangements, possibly within the next few days.
There are several possibilities on the table, but numerous questions over their feasibility must be hammered out. A Mountain West president’s meeting is scheduled for Thursday.

According to three sources involved in the discussions, the most imminent possibility is for the two schools to remain “Pac-12” members, but form a football scheduling alliance with the Mountain West. The Beavers and Cougars would not be eligible for the championship of that conference but would play the majority of their games against each other and various MWC schools for either one or two years. While the schools would operate under the Pac-12 “umbrella,” they would not attempt to stage a conference championship for themselves."

"A source involved in the discussions said “dialogue has increased” recently between the “Pac-2” and the Mountain West. The NCAA allows a two-year grace period for FBS conferences to get back to the eight-school requirement.

"Under the model being discussed, the schools’ other sports teams would compete as “affiliate members” in the MWC and other Division I conferences like the Big West or WCC. In those sports, they could play a full conference schedule and be eligible for those leagues’ championships as well as automatic berths to NCAA tournaments."

"Oregon State and Washington State would be “keeping the Pac-12 open” as an entity, to preserve the league’s IP and, most importantly, its assets. In addition to media rights and other revenue from its last year as a 12-school league, the two expect to receive future revenue streams like the league’s already-earned NCAA tournament units (an estimated $60 million), the remaining two years of their Rose Bowl contract (around $80 million) and two more years of CFP distributions (each Power 5 league received $79 million last year, though it’s not yet determined whether a two-team Pac-12 would receive the same amount)"

"The MWC does not have a Grant of Rights and believes its exit fee bylaw extends in perpetuity, according to a league source. That means it would cost at least $17 million for a member to leave with more than one year’s notice or at least $35 million if leaving with less than one year’s notice, no matter the status of the TV deal, which runs through 2025-26.

"The possibility of Oregon State and Washington State using their Pac-12 money to pay those exit fees has been discussed informally, but it’s not clear how desirable that option is, nor exactly when the schools would have full control over that money. The Pac-2 schools have said they plan to keep their budgets at a Power 5 level, and they’d need a good chunk of that money to do that."

"It’s also not clear if any MWC schools want to rebuild the Pac-12. Some members have been frustrated by a lack of proactiveness within the MWC, such as letting the American Athletic Conference scoop up several Texas schools in 2021. But joining the Pac-2 would come with all kinds of unknowns. Other than leftover money and a severely diminished brand, it’s not obvious what advantages there would be, especially with the College Football Playoff close to moving to a 5+7 12-team model next year. (Of note: WSU president Kirk Schulz must approve that change in order for it to happen, as the Pac-12 CFP representative. He’s indicated a willingness to negotiate)"

"The Pac-2 also don’t have a media rights deal for next year, and the conference is named in several lawsuits and an ongoing case with the National Labor Relations Board. What would make the league appealing enough for MWC schools to pay an exit fee or try to dissolve the MWC to leave a few stragglers behind?"

https://theathletic.com/5068234/2023/11/16/oregon-state-washington-state-conference-future/

 

how many years is it that Oregon, and some other PAC schools have a tangible obligation to subsidize OSU/WSU? They have been doing it for decades already

I linked an article above that had this info:

"Oregon State and Washington State would be “keeping the Pac-12 open” as an entity, to preserve the league’s IP and, most importantly, its assets. In addition to media rights and other revenue from its last year as a 12-school league, the two expect to receive future revenue streams like the league’s already-earned NCAA tournament units (an estimated $60 million), the remaining two years of their Rose Bowl contract (around $80 million) and two more years of CFP distributions (each Power 5 league received $79 million last year, though it’s not yet determined whether a two-team Pac-12 would receive the same amount)"

if the Pac-2 actually gets all that money...and it's important here to note that the Pac-10 teams have already conceded in legal filings that money goes to the Pac-2, just how much have they really hurt those two schools? That would mean OSU/WSU split 220M over the next 2 years. 110M each. That's a lot of cheddar. And that does not include any money over and above what they are owed for the current athletic year.

college sports is a business. It has always been so, but it's true now more than ever. Meaning that conferences exist because of business; and those businesses are based upon the GOR's they sign. That's the glue holding conferences together a lot more than history. The Pac-12's GOR expires this year and the Pac-12 failed because it couldn't secure another effective GOR. It was a business failure. The other 10 Pac-12 teams went out to the open market and secured their table at other business ventures. They were able to land in GOR's that paid them the equivalent of what they have been making in the Pac-12 Gor. Except for Stanford and Cal of course, who went out and got completely bent over by the ACC

OSU and WSU tried the same thing. They went out and discovered that the market didn't value them like it valued other Pac-12 teams. I really don't see how Oregon, for instance, had any obligation to carry any OSU water when the market had already said not interested

 

It would be like if you worked at a job for a year and instead of paying you when you leave, they expect you to donate your pay to the remaining people who are staying at the job.

The other schools helped earn these funds. They did it under the agreement that they would be entitled to a portion at the end of the year. I can understand OSU and WSU keeping the Pac assets after the other school is gone, but I don’t understand them keeping the funds that are meant to be divided by the schools.

 

Man, does the Dog pay you by the word?

 

is that all you got? dismiss what I'm saying because of word count?