IMO, the defensive regression has more to do with who is playing less - which I guess is a direct result of getting back two point guards that need 20-30 MPG. Eye test tells me we played the best defense when we had two of Camara/Thybulle/Walker/Grant at the forwards and Shaedon at the two, allowing us to switch most actions. Return of Ant + Brogdon means less minutes for the forwards and a lot more three guard lineups that are (as Portland should know very well), very bad defensively. Hell, even Kris Murray was solid defensively when he had to be inserted into the lineup.
I'm doin the math while I type this: Camara - November 353 minutes in 14 games = 25.2 minutes...December 193 minutes in 7 games = 27.6 minutes Thybulle - November 332 minutes in 14 games = 23.2 minutes...December 184 minutes in 7 games = 26.3 minutes Walker - November 250 minutes in 14 games = 17.9 minutes...December 142 minutes in 7 games = 20.3 minutes so then, all three players are actually logging more minutes since Ant returned. Meaning the defensive regression isn't due to the better defenders playing less. It might be partly due to Ayton missing 3 games, but he's also been back for 3 games and the defense is still bad. The last 3 games with Ayton saw defensive ratings of 128.6; 126.3; and 122.4. The season mark is 115.6 so the average in Ayton's 3 games back is 10.1 points worse than the season average now, since it's apparently not a minutes distribution, it could be a rotation issue. The combinations of players on the floor being different. But that really seems like a stretch. Correlation does not necessarily mean causation. I can't say for certain whether Portland ranked 9th or 10th in defensive rating prior to Ant's return. But in the 6 games since, their rating has dropped more than 2.5 points to 17th. That sure looks like a correlation but I'm open to other answers or a combination of causes it might also have something to do with Scoot. Ant has a defensive rating of 119; Scoot's is 120. Ant has a DBPM of -1.5; Scoot's is -2.3. Portland played their best defense when Brogdon and Sharpe were starting in the back-court, and Ant & Scoot were out. Bringing back nearly 60 minutes a game for Ant+Scoot may be the primary issue
Ant didn't come back till the 6th, the Utah game on the 2nd shifts the average minutes distribution. But regardless, there's probably more than one issue, but it's definitely not helping to have to play 3 starting point guards lots of minutes together. https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/a...ntity=2&DateFrom=12/06/2023&DateTo=12/18/2023 It's somewhat noisy to parse the 2 man lineups, because most of our lineups are hugely negative, but: Scoot/Sharpe is -20.4 Brog/Simons is -16.4 Scoot/Brog is -26.8 Ant/Sharpe is -11.3 Ant/Scoot is -12.8 Brog/Sharpe is +1.2 (!!!) Sample size is still a bit small, but does seem to support that last point. Also, this 3 man lineup has somehow played 13 minutes together and are -33.7. That is impressively bad. There's no situation where all 3 of these guards should be on the floor at the same time.
In this situation, I'm sure Chauncey knows, but he kind of has to play all 3 guys for various reasons, and W/L doesn't matter. Still, I'd like to see Brogdon traded sooner rather than later. Crazy how this season we went from 3 starting point guards to 0 and now we're back to 3.
