He came here as DominAyton, max player, making twice as much as Nurk and your arguments about him being "ok" and why "we expect Bill Russel or Wilt" are like he was cheap big from g-league. I am actually ok with him playing like he is. For 1/4 of money.
Isn't this the very definition of moving goalposts? Your original argument was that Ayton's low FT attempt percentage was a weakness, except that some of the very best players in the league on some of the best teams in the league are down there with him, so now you're qualifying that something else about Ayton in a similar vein is the problem.
Ayton is the guy I'd stay invested in..he's young and unlike Nurk, runs like a deer. When he gets some chemistry with whatever core they land on he's going to be a double double machine. He just missed 12 games and almost had a 20/20 game last game. I'm happy with this dude on the team no matter what nickname he throws around. Ayton, Grant and Walker is a pretty solid unit to build a core with.
I was the one that mentioned Russell and Wilt but not nearly in the context you suggest. Please don't mischaracterize to suit your argument. The point was made that he was being held to a standard that even those players wouldn't have met, and that not being at that level had a poster saying he was at Whiteside/Przybilla-level or worse. I also haven't seen anyone saying he's playing up to his contract, for whatever that's worth in today's NBA where there are a lot of players that are even less bang for their buck than him. We have a salary floor we have to meet. We have a young guy who averages a double-double, can defend guards on the pick-and-roll, can shoot consistently away from the basket and has started and performed in an NBA finals. We also needed to match salary. He doesn't play to his contract, but he's closer to it than a lot of people want to admit. But if you are reading this thread and seeing some of the players to which Ayton is being compared by his detractors and this ^ post is what you're getting out of that, then I just am not sure you're coming at this without a bias you want to confirm.
And, again, I think the fact that a Anthony Davis is with him on both lists and Embiid is down there with him on the first list shows you that this stat in a vacuum is practically meaningless, and that Gafford, Poeltl and Allen are near the top on both reinforces that. Many of those latter guys aren't having plays run for them or are high-usage offensive players. They are scoring the vast majority of their points from point-blank range off lobs and put-backs and are very dependent on guard play and offensive system to set them up where they can score. This list is skewed to low-usage, lower-option players. There are a few exceptions to that, but, for the most part, you can see guys that no GM would take over Ayton near the top of those lists.
It's not about going recklessly on every possession, it's more about coasting at times out there and not having that dog in him. And that's ok, he doesn't have to have that in him at all times. There is going be some days where someone just doesn't have it for whatever reason. I'm not hating on the guy, I'm more just pointing out that he has many of the same qualities Nurk did, but the same people that bashed Nurk for it are defending Ayton and that's the part I don't get in this forum on a regular. Ayton played great last night, he was defending well and grabbing boards. He had a good overall game. I don't expect that from him every night either. I'm not disappointed in his play vs his pay. Overall he is about what I expected out of him, but I did think he would show more offensive than we have been seeing from him, but that could be due to him being on a new team, dealing with some injuries this year and/or Billups not using him to max compacity yet. I'm baffled at how many bashed Nurk as well for many of the same reasons as well. That Nurk wouldn't be good with this team. Nurk has a more friendly contract, and if Ayton wants to continue being a max player, when his salary is up, Scoot/Ant/Sharpe will all be due too...meaning enjoy a couple of years of Ayton at this rate then he's gone since we aint giving all of them a max.
Nobody is a max player that doesn't make an All NBA team or Allstar roster. I do like swagger in the front court though. As long as he shows up and works well next to Grant and Walker it's all gravy to me. You can't fill a roster with rookie contracts anyway...somewhere you have to reach the minimum salary level. Ayton's money isn't hurting us nearly as much as CJ's or Dame's would've. He won't get what he's paid now next deal. They'll probably offer him Nurk money for more years or pay him Ant money for a two year deal with a team option.
agreed--I feel like the suns fanbase and other national media are trying to trick portland fans into caring that... - ayton went #1 - ayton's contract is hurting the blazers' chances of success in the short, medium or long term given the rebuild. ... once you remove those two things from the equation, it's hard to get me fired up about the expectations game. ayton's age makes him a lot better suited for the blazers than nurkic, given this new framework.
actually, no, the best players are not really "down there with him". There's a pretty big gap between a 33% rate and a rate under 21%. Ayton's career rate is about 63% that of Jokic; 55% of Nurkic; and 37% of Embiid's. . And for this season, Ayton's rate is 41% of Jokic; 36% of Nurkic; and 24% of Embiid. Those aren't close to equivalent I'm not sure why you're pushing back on this. Ayton is a really good rebounder; the numbers show that. He's decent for a big in shooting efficiency; the numbers show that too. But for a 7' C, he's quite poor at getting to the line and drawing fouls; again, that's what his numbers show...I didn't make them up
um, this is silly. Ayton is a #1 pick, why just dismiss that or ignore that to make you feel better about his play? He was just quoted as saying he is a max player and will continue to be one, so either him or the Blazer will be facing some uncertain times coming up.. Both those things are facts. Why dismiss it? Nurk was gotten for Plumlee and etc, on a better contract, how come many didn't forget those things when bashing Nurk for the same things they are defending Ayton for? Make some sense around here guys. Guys are all over the place lol
Exactly. FTs have a huge impact on a players overall offensive efficiency. Ayton has not been efficient at 2s for a center, and downright pathetic at getting to the line. That leaves him with at TS% of .554 so far this year. Given that the Blazers have the worst TS% in the league, you have to point out stuff like this as a contributing factor to our losing ways.
This is another problem with Ayton this year. The bottom line is this season. Note the steep decline in both percentage of shots taken at the rim and in percentage converted at the rim. He's drifting a way from the hoop and it it's hurting his efficiency. One would think that if you reduced your attempts at the rim, what was left would be more of the "gimmies", but his % has gone down. Ayton is bad offensively this season, and his bullshit hurts the team.. No other way to cut it. If he were averaging 13 points with good efficiency it would be one thing, but he's not. He's in his 6 year, and regressing. He's a bum, he's a loser, he needs to get the fuck off this team.
And, again, we keep having people cherry picking stats to make specious arguments. "He's bad and getting worse" ... or, just hear me out on this, it's 28 games! The sample size is minuscule. He's played 28 games with 16 guys he's never played with, a half-dozen rookies, a new coach, a new system, a team that's trying not to win much ... and you're hyper-focused on one thing to try to prove your point that you completely ignore everything else.
I'm pushing back on it because you're trying to hard to make a point using a statistical argument that's weak, and you're continually changing parameters to do it. I'll try to explain this to you again. Look at your chart. Look at the rankings. Don't focus so much on the numbers but look at who ranks where. If your stat was meaningful in a vacuum, we should expect more guys like Anthony Davis to be near the top of the rankings, not the bottom. Your example has guys who are among the top 100 NBA players of all-time well behind journeymen. You're telling us that Ayton not doing well in this area is proof that he's not really a good player when there are a number of guys that aren't good in this area that I don't think you could challenge are great players without someone looking at you like you had two heads. It's not a defense of Ayton here. It's more an indictment of a poor argument that keeps shifting. In this case, you keep pushing this stat matters but your way of trying to push that the stat matters is that Ayton's not good at it. Looking at this list, again, there's a strong correlation with guys not being focal points of their offenses and ranking high, which shows a bias in the measurement. It'd be like a baseball player hitting .667 and someone telling you that that proved they were a great hitter ... except they only were 2-for-3 and their only three at-bats were hitting for the pitcher when no one else was available to hit. And the other team had to play the infield in when they batted. They got limited use and got limited use in highly favorable situations.
OK. I don't know where a lot of this comes from. It seems like a "Justice for Nurk" post. The other thing is that you're still coming down on him, now for "coasting at times" which seems like you are muffling your previous criticism a bit, for something that you literally could say of 98-99% of the NBA. It just seems like a weird criticism to make that a guy deserves to be criticized because he doesn't have Draymond Green's motor or something along those lines. However, if that's your contention, I'd counter with the fact that Nurk then is more deserving of your criticism, because he played with half the motor or less than Ayton, admittedly at a quarter the price, but Ayton does things Nurk couldn't and Ayton has the potential to do more. Don't hate the player. Hate the game.
Keep going with the logic, you’re almost there: why does it matter that he’s a max player? Portland is going to be stacked with rookie scale contracts for the foreseeable future. Ayton’s max matters for phoenix, but not for us! Ayton is replacing Nurkic. I like Nurkic. But he already didn’t fit the timeline of the team and struggled with his availability. Ayton is 25. Ayton’s inconsistency by the end of the season will likely just be different than Nurk’s—not worse. So why do we need to care that he’s a #1 pick again? Nurk certainly wasn’t—we got him AND a pick from Denver, he was found money. Phoenix had to select him over Luka and live with that after being awful for a season to select him. We didn’t. The Ayton expectations game is a stupid one to play—I’m not sure why people feel the need to invest in it. You’re certainly welcome to.
His drifting to the outside has been sustained over 3 years though. And yeah, maybe his interior percentage will come back up, but 28 games isn't really a small sample size, it's half a season for him. All anyone can make statements of fact on, is what he's already done, not mythical improvement he might make in the future. I say this guy is trending the wrong way, he got paid, he's not really on the "upswing" part of development, and he's egregiously over-paid for what he brings. He's average at best.
He's not better than Nurkic and he's twice as expensive. That matters in terms of his tradability. Nurk wasn't efficient on offense either, had bad hands, but was a good rebounder and fair defender. The Suns were smart, and saw they could get the same overall production for half the price.
Lol. And there it is. You just contradicted yourself in your post lol. 99% of players coast at times? So then why in the same argument say Nurk is deserving of it criticism more lol? You just prove my point. If you’re going to criticize Nurk for those things then criticize Ayton when he does those things too! It’s pretty simple. You guys really aren’t making sense at all here when it comes to the criticism. Guys will bash Nurk for those things but turn an eye when Ayton does that. Hey 99% of players coast at times and it’s ok if Ayton does that but not ok when Nurk did it lol. just goes to show you how hypocritical people are on here when it comes to certain players and this just confirms it with your words and others.
