The future's not what it was

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Rastapopoulos, Mar 28, 2024.

  1. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    Spoken as a true fan. Cronin no doubt wants to achieve success, but he also has to answer to owners who are interested in filling vacant seats. What part of the past decade makes you think that Jody and the Vulcans are willing to commit to what may be a decade long tanking streak in search of the elusive draft pick who can be the unicorn that leads to playoff nirvana?
     
  2. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, like when Walton destroyed his ankle. Or Oden blew out his knee (for the nth time). Or Roy's cartilage evaporated.
     
  3. UKRAINEFAN

    UKRAINEFAN Well-Known Member

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    Kind of discouraging that teams already doing well like Boston, MN and New Orleans, have better young cores than us.
     
  4. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Coulibaly is a huge question mark, but Avdija is suddenly looking very good. But yes, even I would not have said Washington had a less crappy future than us.
     
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  5. UKRAINEFAN

    UKRAINEFAN Well-Known Member

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    Grant and Simons and Ayton are all three really good players, but somehow I enjoy watching the team without them.
     
  6. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Those are clearly made-up names. You know, like Johnny Utah or Joe Montana.
     
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  7. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I don't how you assumed what you seemed to assume about my post

    I've been saying for years here I think Jody and the Vulcans are fucking terrible owners. Cash flow is their holy grail, not contending or satisfying die-hard fans

    and yes, I'm sure they give Cronin directives. I'm also sure they weren't insisting he re-sign Grant for 160M; make Ant the 'face' of the team; trade for the overpaid Ayton; add Timelord's knees to the honor roll of broken Blazer big men; and stand pat at the trade deadline

    the Blazers are in a deep hole, and for me your "two things" post was all about not learning from mistakes and instead, digging even deeper. That very well may be the direction Portland chooses because it's about the worst direction they could go from where they are
     
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  8. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    There are many examples of great players who sucked or underwhelmed in their rookie years: Dirk, Giannis, Kobe, Nash, KG to name 5 more. Scoot is averaging more points and assists than Jokic in his rookie year.
     
  9. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    There’s a middle ground. No one said “wait 20 years”. How about “wait 4 years”?
     
  10. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    My post was simply a statement of what I expect to happen. My opinions, and that’s what they are, reflect what I have seen from this organization since PA died. I don’t expect any commitment to a long losing period because I don’t think there’s enough organizational direction to suffer through that. I don’t think that changes until ownership changes. I think Cronin has to do the best he can within the constraints of that reality.
     
  11. MrDraftGuy

    MrDraftGuy Well-Known Member

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    Personally, this is exactly why I wanted Amen, instead, as it properly prepared the Blazers for a rebuild that would be more like Roy-Oden-LMA-Batum, where multiple positions are covered within three years and defense is secured at 3/5 positions (a minimum for championship squads, historically), rebounding is secured, and there is a variety of different pieces moving that they compliment one another (shooting opens up for twin towers, LMA can play at mid-range or inside, Oden can feast inside, Roy was 3 level scorer, front court defense covers back court, etc).

    Short PGs are useful but building around short PGs doesn't really win championships (Steph is GOAT shooter, Zeke is exception) so this notion to chase a Dame replacement was a foolish one, to begin with.

    As a caveat, one of the reasons I started this account and a few others like it is to document my picks. Once upon a time, I found myself in awe of the late 2000s Blazers and how hopeful that era was. When Roy and Oden went away, it made me desperate to find a way to replace it. I remember wanting Portland to trade LMA for Harden back in 2012 because I absolutely knew Harden was a superstar SG like Roy would've been and felt he would fit well next to Dame, a PG whose workout apparently mirrored KD's.

    Harden's profile and traits matched as such. Ideally, LMA would be closer to Texas and KD probably would've done better with LMA+Russ. Everyone would've been happy.

    Then, in the next draft, I wanted Giannis and Gobert.

    Dame-Harden-Batum-Giannis-Gobert would be a legitimate team, don't you think? Kyle Anderson (my 2014 guy for Portland to acquire) would've come off the bench, too.

    My point here is not to brag. My point is that, I think I've might've unlocked a way of viewing things over the years that could lead to NBA success and again, I wanted to document it. I appear to be correct on Sharpe. He looks like he could be the star we want and fits the SG archetype that Wade, Kobe, Harden, Roy, Carter, Edwards does.

    And I might be correct on Amen over Scoot (and even over Miller) if Amen pans out to become who I thought he'd be, which is a top tier defensive wing with Giannis-lite traits. Again, I spotted Giannis in the past, I know I'll spot another one....which Amen is not 100% the same but he has traits that could propel him to be a 23/8/5 forward who can play lockdown defense.

    I do think Cody Williams and Zach Edey (or Donovan Clingan, if you think his foot is okay) are the way to go, in this draft. Then, rebuilding in 2025 and maybe 2026, at the latest, is the path for Portland to secure what the OKC Thunder currently are.

    If we do not go that route, then, I'll say you should worry and place your future investments in something else other than the current Blazer brass, not because this particular draft matters over others but moreso that it's indicative of a front office/ownership that is more like what the Kings were for years rather than one that knows how to win championships.
     
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  12. CJ_is_Gone

    CJ_is_Gone Well-Known Member

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    What do you think of Kyshawn George?

    I view him as the same type of player as Cody Williams... but probably a better shooter.

    What are your top 10 in this draft?

    Mine are:

    I like this format best:

    Tier 1 - Likely All-Star
    None

    Tier 2 - Quality Starters with upside
    Sarr, Castle, Risacher, Holland

    Tier 3 - Decent Starters
    Sheppard, Holmes, Buzelis,

    Tier 3a - High Variance Players (Boom/Bust)
    George, Cody Williams, Topic, Hansen Yang, Chomche, Ivisic,

    Tier 4 - Low End Starters, High Level Reserve Role Players
    Edey, Walter, Missi, Dillingham, Salaun, Smith, Clingan, Furphy, Knecht, Dunn
     
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  13. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    ok, understood....seems like we're kind of in agreement then

    the priorities out of Seattle don't match building a contender, and aren't even concerned with having a winning team that is a pretender

    as for Cronin, I defended him at first when he was getting all the flak about dumping CJ-Powell-RoCo-Nance. I don't think he did enough in the 2022 of-season but maybe there weren't good opportunities available. What he did this last off-season was pretty bad, IMO
     
  14. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I forgot to mention perspective
     
  15. MrDraftGuy

    MrDraftGuy Well-Known Member

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    I view him as something akin to Anthony Black, as an archetype, but currently not as talented as Black was in college (and I preferred Jarace Walker and the Thompsons over Black).

    The way I see it, this is a very normal and average draft, especially compared to how spoiled we've been in the last few. In average drafts, we tend to see 4-5 All Stars rather than the 6+ in an above average to good draft (and the 3 in a bad draft). Additionally, you have to factor in that we've seen an international All-Star just about every year since Giannis got drafted, with two All-Stars every couple of years. That means it's less likely we'll ever see a 2000 or even 2013 ever again.

    Should be 4-5 All Stars in this draft.

    Tier 0 - Perennial All-Star/Superstar

    Tier 1 - All-Star
    Williams, Risacher, Castle, Clingan (if healthy)

    Tier 2 - Borderline All-Star
    Sheppard, Holland, Edey (like a Draymond, the right role could put him up a tier), Topic

    Tier 3 - Starters/Roleplayers
    Sarr, Buzelis, Missi, Collier

    Tier 4 - Roleplayers/Bench/Journeymen
    Dillingham, Knecht, Furphy, George

    I expect a few of these players might go up or down a notch as their careers progress but that's how I currently see them, in terms of tiers.
     
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  16. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    upload_2024-3-29_14-41-58.jpeg
     
  17. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    I see Joe as a placeholder until the franchise is sold. I can't imagine him lasting under a new ownership group that's interested in winning.
     
  18. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    apparently, mentioning Jody Allen's motivation for NOT selling the team rankles a couple of people. But it's out there anyway. She's specified as the executor by PA's will and the executor is guaranteed a "reasonable" annual fee for managing the estate. I am not sure it's specified anywhere what 'reasonable' is, and if not, who determines that rate. In the state of Washington an appropriate fee is considered in the 2-5% range. If Jody is the one who determines what the fee is, she could say it's 5%. last year the Blazers were valued at 3B. If Jody said reasonable was 5% she could be 'earning' 150M/year as the executor....which is pretty substantial reason to slow-walk any sale

    I think the Blazers will be stuck in the Vulcan purgatory for a lot of years
     
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  19. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    Yeah, I've read similar information elsewhere. I don't remember exactly where, but it makes total sense. Obviously, we don't know what she gets out of the sale as an heir, but assuming it's not much, then stringing this out for years is a smart play on her part. Just sucks for Blazers fans.
     
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  20. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    I don't understand how you can feel this way.

    We have a ton of young prospects that have shown promise. Shaedon, Scoot, Rupert, Murray, Camara, Jabari Walker, Banton, etc.

    We have brought in some promising picks from the Bucks and Warriors. Considering what our cupboards looked like a couple years ago, I think Joe has done a damn fine job of restocking them in just a short period of time.
     
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