When have you been less excited for the start of a Blazers season?

He only played half a season last year. Really don’t think he will change the course of the team and win a bunch of games but if he did his value would just go up anyway.

 

You don't have to win a bunch of games to get a later lotto pick. It only takes a few. And Grant is good enough to win us a few games that we wouldn't otherwise win against bad teams.

 

For all this not planning for something extraordinary and purposely losing it doesn’t seem like the “Numbers” are working. Year 4 coming up.

This needs to be a last year they try to lose. I can live with young players trying to win and losing but management trying to lose is just the wrong way to go about things.

 

Except we haven't done what I suggested. We should have tanked hard the first 3 years if we were going to deal Dame.

We are losing our window of opportunity. Like you say. This is why it is so critical to get rid of guys like Simon's and Grant ASAP.

We are definitely screwing the pooch by keeping those guys. 100%. What we have been doing is not what I suggest that we do. It's not what the numbers suggest we should do.

We need to understand that and change course immediately. And tank extremely hard from the start of the season. Not by sitting players, but by getting rid of those players. Treating them for draft capital or young players who need to develop.

What we have been doing for the last 3 years is planning for something extraordinary to happen. It ain't happening.

 

The Blazers got lucky and got the #1 pick and used it for Oden. They got Roy at 7 and traded to get Aldridge.
We all know about injuries but that team was built the exact same way they are building now. Many believe that without the injuries that team would contend.
Even Lillard thinks if Aldridge doesn’t leave the Blazers would have contended.
It doesn’t take 6-7-8 years of tanking to build a good team and it doesn’t take Extraordinary. It just takes a good group and a good coach with an owner willing to spend a bit of money to create a championship.

 

FIFY

I still put a pretty fair amount of faith in the development of Sharpe and Scoot. The development of both has been stunted a bit. Last season should have been Sharpe's breakout year, but he missed a major chunk of it with the ab injury that required surgery. That doesn't change the fact that he's an athletic freak who has shown signs of All-Star potential. Scoot was a deer in the headlights last season as he tried to make the leap from G-League to NBA. He also dealt with injuries. To me, the talk of him being a bust is incredibly short sighted. He's got the athletic talent to be a top-tier guard. He just needs off-season work on his game, particularly shooting and finishing, and a chance to gain game experience. If those two develop into All-Stars, what the Blazers have done is form a solid foundation. They added a promising front line piece in Clingan. They will no doubt lose enough games this season to be in position to grab a very good prospect in a deep draft. Flagg would be great, but there are plenty of good picks available.

I have no problem with trading Grant and/or Simons, but it should happen at the point that a good return is offered; not just because message forums are clamoring for it to happen immediately. I have little doubt that they'll be gone by the deadline.

 

Your strategy has worked a few times for other teams. But it hasn't worked very often. So to say keeping those guys is 100 % wrong is more of a guess than fact. Everyone is entitled to their opinion as to which direction is best, but it's all a crap shoot.

 

Personally, I look at Grant differently Ant and Ayton. Based on age and length of contract. If they were to trade him to the Lakers for say Rui and filler and a pick...I would be OK. I am just not in a hurry to move Ayton and Simons. Certainly not just so we can tank.

 

But we all also know that the injury risks were why they got those players in those positions. We never would have gotten Roy if he hadn't had injury concerns. I've also heard rumors that that weighed in on Chicago making the trade with Aldridge.

Except Oden. So just getting the number one pick also isn't a guarant.

So the Blazers had something extraordinary happen and that those players were available when they were picking. I'm saying that we can't count on that happening. And if it does happen, there's probably a reason.

If something extraordinary were to happen and we're just too good with young players to keep losing then that's great. But that's not the case now. So we're just hurting ourselves by keeping older players who have proven they can help us beat bad teams but aren't all star caliber. They are simply hurting our chances at getting a better drafting. It's all about probabilities.

You're right, it might not take 6,7 or 8 years. And that would be great. But we haven't started by getting the best draft picks we can. We've missed out on some great players that we would have had a better chance at drafting if we have lost more. Likely one of the best of all time.

So we've kind of screwed the pooch on our first few years of the tank. Hopefully Scoot and Sharpe turn into All Stars. But we should absolutely not count on that being the case. We aren't going to have the opportunity to tank in a few more years of their develop. We really need to make the most of our opportunity right now, IMO.

 

he probably would if he was a decent ball-handler, but he's not. Of course, an Ayton with handles is like an Oden with good knees...fictional characters

but yeah, in his own way, Ayton can dominate the ball. In the last 2 months of last season, in those games that Ayton fans like to point to when he averaged 23 points, he also averaged 19.2 FGA. For perspective, Jokic led all NBA C's last season in FGA with 17.9; Wemby was 2nd at 16.7. Obviously, the runway for Ayton's 'ball hoggishness' was cleared with Simons-Grant-Brogdon sitting. When 2 or 3 of those guys played, Ayton only averaged a shade over 13 FGA

 

Of course, that's why I've been saying "in my opinion".

Nobody is saying you can't have your opinion. This is a discussion. It just so happens that far more teams who have tanked until getting a generational player have turned into championship contenders then the ones who haven't if you exclude the few destination cities.

The odds say it will take us six or seven hard tanks to draft a generational player or multiple all NBA players. And you need one or both in order to win championships in NBA if you aren't a destination City.

 

I don't disagree with anything there. I'm simply trying to play the odds. The odds are that both Scoot and Sharpe will not develop into all stars. The odds are that we're going to get less value from Grant and Simons then we would gain by losing more games, not more value.

If keeping Grant and Simons wins us three games that prevents us from drafting #1 it probably doesn't matter what we get out of them. We have shot ourselves in the foot.

 

I bet the Hawks don't wish that they'd lost three more games last season. The Pistons would have done better by winning a few more games. The league has made it very hard to gain a certain advantage by tanking.

 

And that is part of my point. If you put together a team that has multiple scoring options, then the likeliness of someone dominating the ball while others stand and watch will go down. If it continues then that is on the coach.

Some fans complained about Dame doing that, but would he have if there were 3 other legitimate scorers on the floor? I am pretty sure he was encouraged to shoot anytime and from anywhere on the court.

 

It's not a decision you make for one season. That's the point.

 

Well Sure. Now you have made enough disclaimers that nothing can be relied upon and I do agree. Very little can be considered a sure thing.
I personally feel it's one more year to get a good pick maybe two simply because they still won't be any good, and make really good trade decisions with Grant and Ayton or Simons. Both Simons and Ayton would fit pretty much any team they build. Getting rid of Grant leaves them again searching for a PF that can guard the perimeter and create a shot but that is why I think he will be coveted by a team at the trade deadline.

 

Yeah I mean that sounds like a great way to have a team that might make it out of the first round someday.

Awesome.

I mean I hope it works out. I hope we are the better than that. But there is a reason I don't go to the casino.

 

So 5 lottery picks ain't enough? We have Sharpe. Henderson and Clingan. This year will most certainly be at least another #7 pick. Next year is another #7 pick even trying to win. Then you wait it out with the vets you have until you get another couple first round picks available out of them from teams that want to add depth for a playoff run.
Then you get in the playoffs with a promising group and try to add through FA whatever the team is lacking.
That is what the Blazers have done three times in the last 40 years and three times it got them to the finals or at least the conference finals. They did it with Drexler. They did is with Wallace and they did it with Lillard. Missed out on Roy due to injuries or it would have been 4 times in 40 years. I'll take 75% odds sure.

 

75% odds at not winning a championship. Awesome.

They got a generational player in Drexler (at #14… you can't count in that). They got a generational player in Roy. They got what should have been a generational player in Wallace (but we traded foe him because he had baggage) and Sabonis, and we could spend more than every other team in the league at that time. Which kind of made us a destination city. You have advantages then that we don't have now.

How many non-destination cities have won championships that way? Detroit? And they lucked into a situation where they had a very motivated Wallace for 6 months and incredible coaching...

So yeah, five lottery picks might not be enough. If we don't get a generational talent by then. We have screwed the pooch the last 3 years, when we should have been taking the hardest if we were going to trade Dame. I understood it the first year or two. We were going to trade the pic to couple somebody with name. That didn't work out.

Simons was clearly not good enough last year. Grant was clearly not good enough either. They probably should have both been dealt before now. We are not ever going to get great value out of them. Value that will move the needle. It's just more than likely not going to happen. We shouldn't count on that happening. We should definitely not put ourselves in a worse situation to get the best possible talent with an I on that happening.

These are all the wrong decisions. These are how you suck for a long time. We need to turn the corner and suck hard to give ourselves a chance to accrue the kind of talent we will need to compete with the top teams of the NBA.

If we don't do that it's probably just going to be more of the same. We have a choice right now. That choice will be gone in 3 or 4 years and we'll be looking at starting the whole process over and another six or seven years of sucking to get it done right.

 

One reason I would prefer to wait before dumping them is if some like Kuminga became available. He is not a star, but he is young with still a lot of upside. I think he would fit well with Scoot, Sharpe, Deni, and Ayton. (and Ant/DC)

Does GS want to pay him? Would they trade him to dump Wiggin's contract? Grant and Williams for Wiggins and Kuminga and Melton? I really we could move Melton and Wiggins and give GS any picks that might come with it.

Anyway, that is just one example and we need to have large contracts to acquire large contracts....if someone becomes available. To me, that is better than moving them for just future picks.