So you're saying that all scouting is useless? Hope you shared that with the scouts you hang out with.
It's not my opinion. It's based on the historical odds of 3rd and 7th picks making the all star game. Especially after having multiple injuries in their first and second seasons. The most likely way to get 2 or 3 all stars is to pick as high in the draft as aften as possible. If it's a 50% chance that a top 3 pick is an all star then you will want 5 or 6 top 3 picks to make sure you have a good chance 2 or 3 all stars.
Agreed it is mostly casual fans. But I think some people here might be so hurt by losing Dame they just can't see the potential in Scoot.
I think Scoot bumping his fg% from 38.5 to 43% next year would have me jumping for joy. He was at like 42% for his last 10 games so I think it absolutely is doable.
What percentage do you define as highly unlikely? Id say 15% or less would be considered highly unlikely. Per the graph in your link, 3rd pick has a near 50% chance and 7th pick has about a 33% chance. 17 of 30 players(56.7%) have been named as All-Star for the 3rd pick. He doesn't isolate the 7th pick, but 4th and 9th had a 33% chance: Other than top-3 picks, there were two other spots which had double-digit number of players selected as All-Stars in the last 30 years: 4th and 9th picks with 10 All-Stars each(probability of 33.3%). I find these odds to be better than highly unlikely or very unlikely. So it seems to be more your opinion than fact, based on the link you provided. I suppose im more optimistic than you is all, but my optimism is supported by the link you provided.
In my opinion 33% means unlikely. 57% means maybe. .33*.57=0.1881 (18.81%) The probability that both become All Stars is 18.81% (please correct me if I"m wrong). An 18.81% chance of something happening is highly unlikely, IMO.
Well, the probability that both will become All Stars is obviously lower than the odds that either will, correct? By historical norms, it's not very likely that we have 2 All Stars on this roster. If we want to make tanking worth it, we have a few more years of tanking to do... We aren't likely to have multiple future all stars on this roster for another 2 or 3 seasons, assuming we keep being bad enough to get top 5-ish picks.
Hmm... Scoot and Sharpe were from multiple drafts... That's exactly what we were talking about I thought...
Guess maybe I’m mistaken? I thought the numbers you guys were referring too were about probability in the same draft. My mistake.
im not sure why it matters if they sre in the same draft or not? The metric from the link was where in the lottery the player was drafted. But i never said in my scenario Scoot had to be an AS. I dont think he ever neds to be an AS to be part of a contending team. Id prefer him to put up 18/10 vs 26/6. 18/10 is not AS type numbers but if Shae pops, DA takes the next step and we trade for an AS, that means three AS and two stars in the starting linup. Ill take that. but here is the catch. The number one pick is only about a 57% chance of becoming an all star so unless we land multiple firsts, the odds are about as good as we will get. Id rather take the 50% chance Scoot becomes an AS and 33% chance Sharpe becomes an AS And trade picks and players for another all star.
I wasn't addressing your scenario. I was simply pointing out that since we already suck we should probably play the odds to get the best chance at a championship team possible. The odds of winning a championship increase the more all stars you have, especially if they compliment each other well. The odds of getting an all star increase the more opportunities you get higher in the draft. Solid point about Ayton. He was also a high pick, but we also know he has had some problems with motivation or guidance, or something... which makes it seem less likely that he'll be an All Star caliber player. To make tanking worth it to me, we'd need to come out with a generational talent (Lebron, Durant, Bird, MJ, Magic, Duncan, Wemby, etc.) or come out with multiple All Stars who compliment each other.
in the West: Jokic Sabonis KAT AD Gobert Wemby Holmgren Sengun Jaren Jackson Nurkic Zubac Markkanen Valanciunas now, 2 or 3 of those guys are going to 'age-out' in the next few seasons; but several are younger than Ayton. I'm not sure Ayton is worthy of that top group or not, but I'm skeptical. He is really going to need to ratchet up his defensive game to be considered
https://www.blazersedge.com/2024/9/...-predictions-scoot-henderson-chauncey-billups ...he was the most disappointing player I saw in L.A. this summer. Despite his unreal athleticism, Henderson is a horrendous defensive player who can’t shoot and can’t finish at the rim. He’s nowhere near ready to help the Blazers win possessions. If he commits to, and succeeds in, improving his overall game, he can make a big jump playing alongside guys who know how. But there needs to be some movement towards the light. If Scoot hasn’t started making real progress by February, it’s a five-alarm fire. No team gets too far with a negative player starting at point guard. Is he talking about THIS summer?
