Politics Official 2024 Presidential Election Thread

Cats have infinitely more integrity than Lindsey Graham. So do Crocodiles, jellyfish and rocks.
The Calico breed is genetically sexist though, the males generally die.

 

See? Another Republican...

 

No joke this will peel off more swing state voters for Harris than the Cheney endorsement

 

Yeah I posted it. Registration and early voting numbers are all pointing to Trump closing the gap on any leads Harris had a month ago and increasing his lead in states he was already leading in. Then there is the very unorthodox but extremely accurate betting odds. Trump now holds a 57% chance of winning where only a month ago it was nearly a dead heat. Harris has done absolutely nothing to hold her leads in the states that she absolutely needs to win.
Biden won Georgia, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania Arizona and New Mexico and Minnesota. With all of those he still only got 306 electoral votes.
At this point Harris looks to be losing Arizona, New Mexico ???, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.
The math simply doesn't look to be in her favor.

 

Harris will win Virginia. Not sure where you’re getting your info but she has a substantial lead in New Mexico.

The way betting markets work is if they get big money on one candidate they move the odds so that they won’t lose the bag. I believe someone has put $19 mil on Trump winning so they moved the odds.

The polling community is being as cautious as they can because really they’ve been awful for almost a decade. To a point where polls have lost any credibility. It’s an outdated concept.

 

She very well may but my statement is that her lead has diminished from 11 points to 8 points. That is trending the wrong way.

Again. She may win New Mexico but it's only 5 votes. Also her lead is trending down not up. Biden won by 11 points. Harris is currently at 8. This speaks to exactly what forecasters are predicting.

Betting on elections is against the law. What I have brought is probability numbers. Not odds. Which by the way outside of the US has Trump ahead also.

I am not using polls in any statements. What I am using is registration and early voting numbers which are wildly in Trumps favor at this point. Republicans are registering and voting early again. Trump has even started asking his followers to vote early.

 

The "Exhaustion" line might be the best bet for Harris.

• Trump agreed to appear on CBS’s “60 Minutes” before canceling.
• He agreed to appear on CNBC before canceling.
• He reportedly planned to sit down for an interview with the NBC affiliate in Philadelphia before canceling.
• He was reportedly in conversations for weeks with The Shade Room about a sit-down interview before withdrawing.
• His campaign said he’d debate Kamala Harris more than once, but he soon after scrapped those plans, too.

It’s also worth noting that Trump was supposed to participate in an event in Georgia with the National Rifle Association, but it too was canceled. The right-wing group explained that the change was the result of “campaign scheduling changes.”

As for the possible explanations for these many cancelations, Politico reported that Trump’s team told one outlet that the candidate’s schedule has been so busy that it’s led to “exhaustion.”

Making matters a bit worse, the 78-year-old Republican appeared to be falling asleep — more than once — during some recent events.

This has not gone unnoticed by the rival campaign.

“Being president of the United States is probably one of the hardest jobs in the world,” Harris told reporters late last week, after referencing the Politico report. “And so, we really do need to ask if he’s exhausted being on the campaign trail, is he fit to do the job?”

Presumably, Trump could push back against such questions by releasing his medical records, but to date, he’s refused to do so for reasons he has not explained.

Seems like being 78 and running a campaign might be too much for Trump?

 

I have been reading from a wide variety of sources for months now (similar to 2020). And it seems that many media outlets "try" to be "fair" farther away from the election, like they don't want to look too partisan. But almost without fail, as the election approaches, "fair" goes out the window and the "persuasion/manipulation/propaganda" cycle begins. Literally every media outlet has a bias, or a horse in the race. And as crunch time approaches you can easily see who they are pushing for the win. Real Clear Politics is a classic case in point. Most of the time (despite being a Right Wing outlet) they bend over backwards to try and give the reader a choice of viewpoints on a variety of subjects (which I appreciate). But as the election gets closer RCP clearly starts pushing the Right Wing narrative, especially flooding the zone with unsubstantiated opinions and "results" that show Republicans pulling away. It's SOP in election manipulation, designed to own the libs and make them panic. They have sucked me in in the past, but this time I think they will be hoisted in their own petard.........if there is panic, it is on the Right.

 

Pretty sure you are correct on all counts here however, you simply cannot discount the changes and the numbers that are not influenceable. Republicans historically voted early until Trump told them early voting was rigged. They lost last time due to missing voting opportunities. This time Trump is telling them to vote early and they are showing up. Early registration numbers confirm an increase in republican voters who are voting conservative. Every indicator to this point is moving in Trumps direction even though Harris may still be leading her lead is diminishing.

On the other hand John Kelly just came out publicly for the first time and gave a scathing rebuke to former President Trump. The timing is impeccable and he knows he has Georgia and North Carolina listening (Probably Arizona as well). That kind of endorsement can only help Harris. Look for a few more in the coming days.

 

Good to see Carville has improved his outlook. He’s been having meltdowns on all the corporate news programs for the last month, in direct contradiction to these most recent ramblings.

There was nothing of consequence in that op ed though. “He lost last time” “Kamala has more money” and “it’s just a feeling” aren’t even in the universe of legitimacy two weeks from an election where the other guy is leading by most conventional metrics. This is a hard cope.