Politics Official 2024 Presidential Election Thread

Well. This is off to an encouraging start.

 

No doubt.

But acceptance of that is our only choice. Finding a way to combat it is the new plan.

 

There's the issue with the tariffs. Businesses are betting what tariff proponents are saying about it making U.S. domestic products more competitive, so they're either moving to other countries, stockpiling goods now or already going to hike prices in anticipation.

 

This is what foreign policy looks when your chief executive is beholden to a foreign national.

 

How misinformation and not being informed can affect an election.

 

I have been on a news break. No newspapers, news programs or news sites. Need time off.
So these are my absolute last words on the subject.

Bullshit about flawed candidate. Last time I checked there are damn few perfect human beings. Harris had solid qualifications, ran on a centrist program. Put forward solutions. She ran a disciplined campaign, kept on message, refused to be baited or sidetracked, united the disparate "herding cats" Democratic coalition, along with some Republicans. Were there errors? Of course, it's called being human. I think too much stress on trying to bring Republicans on board, she would never get more than a sliver. I also think not having Palestinian speaker at convention was a big mistake but that is on DNC, not the candidate. She avoided major gaffes and scandals. Calling her "flawed" while ignoring opponent, like Michele Obama said, she has to be flawless, he can be lawless. Looks to me like "flawed" is euphemism for "woman".

When Harris and Walz said they were underdogs I though that was campaign rhetoric. I think we who worked on campaign and many others underestimated headwinds she was facing. My field of specialty is genetics, not psychology, but I do know something about psychology of trauma. When a traumatic event occurs, and Covid certainly was one, there is a tendency to look at the time just prior with rose colored glasses; those were the good days. And the time before was when Trump was in office. He was in fact very unpopular even before Covid but that isn't remembered. It's just how our brains work. And after trauma is a desire to return to how things were before but life doesn't work that way. We have changed, the country changed, life is unidirectional but again that's how our brains work. I don't except myself, I have had trauma and wanted to just go back. It can't happen.

Post Covid inflation was a worldwide phenomenon; a lot of countries were hit far harder than we were. If you look at elections in capitalist democracies over past 3-4 years, in EVERY case party that was in power during post Covid inflation was voted out. Conservative, liberal, social democratic and every other variant. It wasn't policy; it was just an expression of general malaise. (In most of the swing states, Democrats won Senate seats, so you can't say election was repudiation of Democratic party policies). Harris offered solutions, Trump offered venting, rage, punishment and in the face of widespread discontent people wanted to punish. The irony is Trump policy will make inflation and unemployment much worse.

A friend noted the pull Trump has on young men, surprising for an obese incoherent old man. I started thinking about definitions of "manliness". The traditional definition was a man works hard, supports his family, serves his country when called to do so, keeps a stiff upper lip because no one wants to hear your problems, his word is his bond, a handshake a contract. Obviously this is idealized but that was the image. When a teen boy was told to be a man it meant be responsible for your actions. This definition had a lot of problems, it was sexist, conformist, sometimes blindly patriotic, but still, a man was supposed to be responsible. Trump turned it on his head. He gave a new definition. Men are constantly persecuted but at the same time should be able to do whatever they want without consequences, with himself as Exhibit A. Appealed to young men who either felt unlikely to achieve middle class comfort, or didn't like the idea they should be bothered by care of a family, or figured they would eventually be billionaires or something. Thirty four felony convictions, not a day in jail. Hundreds of millions in civil and criminal penalties and will never pay a dime. Cheats on wives, doesn't pay taxes, assaults women, it's all good. Trump's popularity with young men actually increased after both the Access Hollywood tape and the Madison Square Garden hate fest. See, Trump can do anything! He gets away with everything! What a real man!

Interesting factoid. Trump increased his share of the vote among every demographic except Jewish Americans. There was a big appeal to Jews, based on supporting Israel, because Republicans view Jews and Israel are synonymous. Aside from the fact that many of us are appalled by what is going on in Gaza, Jewish people care deeply about civil liberties, support separation of church and state, sympathize with people fleeing intolerable conditions in their home countries, and really like public schools, libraries and unfettered access to books. Harris won 78% of Jewish voters, up from 74% that supported Biden, and Jewish women supported her by astonishing 88%.

People voted for Biden, not because he was inspiring, but because he was seen as a good and decent man who would appoint sane competent people. A low bar, but one Trump is incapable of achieving. What I have trouble wrapping my head around is that millions of Biden voters, including a majority of white women, preferred a fascist to a woman who was his VP.

What do I expect? A lot of hurt. Some of the masturbatory dreams of the right are not going to happen. Liz Cheney is not going to be sent to Guantanamo, she comes from a very powerful family. But prison population will grow as feeble attempts at criminal justice reform are overturned and poverty criminalized. It's not possible to deport 15 million people. There will be some made for TV raids. But what will happen is driving underground. Immigrants will be subject to super exploitation by employers because they will be terrified. Forget minimum wage, labor laws, protection from physical or sexual abuse.
Public education won't be abolished but we can expect more Oklahoma style Christian indoctrination on public schools, and schools, libraries, museums will proactively change curricula and remove books that might trigger expensive lawsuits. Similarly, I don't think ABC will lose broadcast license but media will self censor to avoid legal action by Trump administration. Social Security could be cut but hardly abolished. However, under Affordable Care Act subsidies have to be renewed by Congress. They won't, and millions will lose health care. Extreme Court might not overturn marriage equality but could very will rule any public or private entity can refuse to recognize a marriage if Jesus. And so on.

I hope I am not forgetting anything because I won't revisit. I haven't really slept for a week. I feel like I don't want to see or speak to anyone but Lashanna but have to force myself to get out, the longer I isolate the harder it will be to get going.

 

Isn't that wild?

I'm heavily into the market and a friend of mine asked me how the election would affect my stocks.

I told the guy "Well, if Trump acts like a relatively normal president and just relaxes some regulations, I'll probably do well like I did this week. But, if he goes nuts with tariffs or starts doing crazy stuff like talking about Haitians eating pets and trading Taiwan for Greenland, then the businesses will get spooked and the market will suffer."

I wished he'd at least have waiting until he got inaugurated for the crazy to start happening.

 

People didn't listen.

 

Of course, though, they never ran on fixing the economy. They ran on the economy was bad under Biden and there are a lot of killer immigrants roaming the country and transgender girls trying to take your daughter's college athletic scholarship.

I don't think, technically, they ever said they could bring down inflation or fix the economy, because, heck, anyone that looked at their plans for economy would tell you they'd have the opposite effect.

 

I'm curious to see how quickly the boast that there wasn't global chaos in his first term holds up. Pulling out of NATO almost assures Putin will do something. Maybe Trump will try to say "See, I kept us out of this by not being in NATO" and that will be enough because people will be paying $5 for a gallon of gas and an extra couple of dollars for a dozen eggs ... people won't have the time to catch a breath to see the mess in foreign affairs.

 

I really don't think he will pull us out of NATO, the pentagon and others wont allow it.

 

We'd need a 3rd country in the trade. What does Denmark gain? How about all the horned Viking hats in all American museums? Is Cronin up to this?