OFFICIAL AROUND THE NBA: JANUARY 2025

Couldn't happen to a more deserving fan base.

 

They sure didn't seem upset when Dame was disrespecting Blazer fans.

 

Completely agree with this statement....

My point was that he has made strides this season to be less 'ball-hoggy'.

Previously, his time on the court was just torcherous to me. A bad player who thinks they are much better than they are.

The last few games he looks like he's at least TRYING on defense and TRYING to fit in with the flow on offense.

Definitely a net negative player still... but he's making progress.

 

Defensive rating shows Ayton is clearly a superior defender to Camara.

This shows how worthless these stats are and nothing about those players defense.

These ratings as a whole look about as random and irrelevant as throwing darts at a board - except generally taller players have lower numbers and short ones have higher numbers.

Maybe we should try playing Timelord at PG.

 

the defensive rating stat, and defensive stats in general, skew in favor big men; interior players. That's well known. That's one reason why I added DBPM which ranks Ayton a lot lower than his defensive rating. And it's accurate to say there is usually a lot of noise in defensive metrics

I'm also looking at the on/off for opponent's offensive rating when individual players are on/off the floor (lower is better). It confirms that Clingan -5.2, and Camara -3.1, are positive impact defenders; and that Simons +3.2, and Ayton +3.7, are negative impact defenders. Avdija fans won't like the stat because he's at +7.5 while Banton is -6.3

but we know rotations nave a big impact on a lot of these 'advanced' stats

we also know that earlier in the season, the Blazers hit their high water mark for defensive rating when they ranked either 12th or 13th. IIRC this may have been around the time Ayton missed 7 straight games and Simons missed 3 or 4; but maybe it was during or even before, and not after. But now, Portland ranks 27th in defensive rating (and 27th in offensive rating). And, 28th in net rating

the thing about Simons and defensive stats (which match the eyeball test), is that it's not just this season. Last season he was last among rotation players in def rating and DBPM; and the team's defensive rating was 6.8 points worse when he was on the floor. In 2022-23, same thing; he was the worst on the team in def rating and DBPM. Basically, since he's been the full time starter the last 3 years, he's been the worst on the team at defense. It's kind of baffling that he's pretty quick and instictive with the ball on one end of the floor; and is so slow in reactions and instincts on the other end of the floor

 

to that point: his usage rate is lower than the last 2 seasons. But his assist rate is lower this season while his turnover rate is at a career high

* this season his average seconds/touch is 4.54 and his average dribbles/touch is 4.09
* last season his average seconds/touch is 5.14 and his average dribbles/touch is 4.82

so yeah, he appears to be ball-hogging less this season. But his PER, TS%, winshares/48, and BPM are all at the lowest marks since he became a starter 4 years ago. So maybe his good performances depend on him dominating the ball and operating in hooplock mode

 

Ship him to Washington and let him rot on the bench.

 

whether he is ball hogging less this year or not he really has played poorly

 

obviously, I'm not a Simons fan, at all. But I doubt he's as bad as he has been playing. It's well below his norms. I think he wants out of Portland and the team is kind of a dysfunctional mess with bad coaching, especially for the vets

 

So Ayton is a better defender than Camara according to this?

 

Could Atlanta be a dark horse team to land Butler? One last ditch attempt for a winning team while they have Trae Young.

 

Young, Daniels, Butler, Jalen is pretty interesting…but who do they trade? Brogdan, Hunter, + one of their 2025 FRP? More?

 

Capela, Nance jr, Risacher and a pick for Butler? Something like that.

 

Atlanta with a 35-year-old Jimmy still has no chance. So trading away Risacher and a pick would be a mistake IMO. Jimmy needs to go to a veteran team where he is the missing piece.
Somewhere he can just show up in the playoffs. And somewhere where he respects the other players on the team. GS or Phoenix

 

7th in rebounding... so I guess the guy sucks at something.

Really though, this dude is going to be a dominant force in the NBA for the next two decades. His combination of length, athleticism and skills pretty much makes him everything, everywhere all at once. Dude is unreal.