Science Where will the Blazer finish in 2025-26?

I wonder though, how many of the young teams that have established the baselines, did have a player who became a superstar while they were skewing those baselines upward

for example, the OKC model. They only won 24 games in 2021-22 as by far the youngest team in the league (22.8). SGA hadn't even made it to an all-star game yet
The next season, OKC improved by 16 wins to 40. SGA became an all0star and generally a superstar that season. But because of draft picks, OKC's average age remained the same (22.8). The next season, they improved by 17 wins while their average age went from 22.8 to 23.4. That season, SGA averaged 30-6-6 with a PER of 29.3

obviously, OKC has to be on th upper end of any age/win curve. But I'm wondering if their position on the upper end is because of average age or SGA

Detroit had a 30 win improvement. Was that because of overall roster maturation or because Cade Cunnigham elevated to a top-15 player, going from 23-4-7 to 26-6-9?

 

We are not winning 50 next year. As you move up in wins and age the spread shrinks a lot. We are winning 41-44 games next season.

50 wins is the absolute max for this roster as it ages. Bert has built another mid-tier monster.

 

Sorry for the shaky line but this is how I see our progression:

 

I’d love to see this same graph with ten seasons worth of data… that would make finding patterns easier.

 

And preseason.

 

54 wins...that's my prediction every season and it's the same next season! Maybe more after we trade Grant and Ant for Giannis or KD

 

ACTUALLY, we passed on Jordan because our starting SG Jim Paxton was an AllStar and Clyde was a backup.

 

Sorry, I can’t tell you where I will finish in the road race, until I know what I kind of car I’m driving.

 

Very true.

 

We’ve already hit our ceiling!

 

Your foundation determines how high you can actually build your ceiling. In order to have the highest ceiling you need the best foundation possible.

Oklahoma City built the foundation for a skyscraper...

 

I checked to make sure you were correct

but I noticed something looking at those 1983-84 Blazers stats:

that season, the Blazers, as a team, averaged 1.6 3ptFGA a game. They made 0.3 a game....a game

ftfy

 

is this serious? worse than this year?

 

OKC has some dark clouds ahead though. After next season, both Holmgren and Jalen Williams are due for their new contracts. Both will likely be max players and projecting, could each be making 9M/year on 5 year deals. OKC has covered a couple of bases on that because they have team options for Hartenstein and Dort that season. But they do have some real difficult choices ahead

 

Talent costs money. But you have to have top level talent to have a realistic shot to win a championship.

I'd much prefer being in their situation than ours.

 

It's what I've been saying elsewhere - the only thing that'll stop OKC is the salary cap/luxury tax.

 

True. I think the question still stands though, doesn't it?

 

You and @THE HCP on different sides of the spectrum is one of this sites true constants.
Let’s make sure it stays that way.

 

what was your wins total for this season? In the 20’s? (Not bashing but genuinely interested)