Yeah this is my type of outlook as well. I think the Bucks are in a very difficult situation and will most likely be a losing team in 2028-2030. But its exceptionally rare for a team without their own pick to be at the top of the lottery, and there are a number of ways the Bucks could be better than the worst teams in the NBA by then. The Dame injury might be a blessing in disguise for them if it accelerates their rebuild - and that could hurt our pick.
The unprotected status isn't about the top three picks (they are a nice bonus); it's about guaranteeing the pick doesn't get deferred to a later year. Cronin was smart about this: a lotto pick of any stripe when you're not a lottery team is pure profit. The timing and predictability of the picks coming is the real value here, because we now get to pick for the roster's strengths and weaknesses and get steadily better year over year.
What are big market teams that control all their picks? I think we are a near guarantee to be approached as the 3rd team since we control 3 years of Bucks picks. Warriors control their picks. Houston has good amount of picks. Miami and Nets are probably the others. I guess the Spurs could be a wildcard if their considered a big enough market. I don't think any of the other big market teams control enough of their picks.
How about a move to help the Bucks stay mediocre until Giannis gets to the end of his contract… We take Dame + Bobby + their loose change 2nds for Ayton and Grant. After a rehab year, Dame can finish his career off the bench behind Scoot. Meanwhile the Bucks continue to crumble with Giannis finally asking out after a frustrating stretch with Ayton and Jerami. They’ll be terrible just in time for 2028 to roll up.
nobody is saying the Bucks are "getting out of this looking good" what people are saying is that the conviction that the Blazers would be getting a top-5 pick and a couple of incredible swaps is on much thinner ice than it was at the time of the trade. What Portland didn't want is an accelerated rebuild of the Bucks; and that may very well happen if Giannis demands a trade and Milwaukee accommodates. that doesn't mean Milwaukee will be winning 50 games in either 2028 or 2030. But it's entirely possible they could be winning 33-38 games and be outside of the top-10 in the lottery. And for all we know, the 2029 draft could end up as weak as last year's draft. Portland might be swapping a 16th pick for a 11th pick in 2028, and getting a 12th pick in in a poor 2029 draft class sure, Giannis might not ask out and the Bucks could be much worse in 2029; but that's less likely than it was a year ago
Nets are actually a good analog. 22-23 -> 45 wins (trading Durant) 23-24 -> 32 wins 24-25 -> 26 wins 25-26 -> TBD I wouldn't say that Brooklyn really has a bright future either. So you can expect at least 2 years of being in the bottom 1/3 of the league post Gainis trade. (say the 26 and 27 seasons). Portland has the rights to the picks in the 28-30 seasons. Ideally, Bucks put off the rebuild for 1 or 2 more years.
even if they they get a haul for giannis they dont have control over any of their picks in the next few years. I would have preferred they continue competing for another year or two so they're exceptionally bad when we have their pick, but i'm not sure how easy their rebuild is going to be. the worst part is that they're in the east--a perpetually bad conference.
Maybe some GS picks/Filler and Kuminga? I mean we don’t even know if those Mil picks will convey. I’d take the help sooner. I’m sure GS wouldn’t mind a Steph/Jimmy/Freak lineup.
It sounds like an expectation issue here. The likely value for the Bucks picks was always going to be in the 10-15 range.
This is fair in that people’s emotions around the top five picks are probably strong, but it’s obvious now that the unprotected status was always way more about timing than potential high picks. I’m trying to say we should let go of the glittery gold of top five as a possibility (which was never better than ~25% a year anyway) and understand that we will be getting the better of our pick or Milwaukee’s pick, we are further along in our rebuild for moving dame when we did, and that we did a good job in this trade. I know it’s weird to realize but our front office isn’t the worst in the league anymore.
MM -- I still do not like what you said but it was late and I let emotion take over -- I still think what you said was crap BUT I was just as out of line as much as your comment was out of line -- 2 wrongs do not make a right.
I never hated LMA or VJ for that matter and loved always love Dame. But sometimes you have to let the one you live go even though it hurts. I am wondering, maybe, at least until the last year or two, if Fame wasn't in exactly the right situation for him here. When there was better talent around him we got to WCF despite injuries. I always wish him well. And Blazers did well in the deal.
It's pretty sad that Dame on a supermax contract with a torn Achilles has the better valued contract over Grant.
Two wrongs can absolutely make a right. When two people here visit a certain house in NE Portland when The HCP is on a roadtrip, that’s wrong, but it feels so right. See?
