Scoot 2024-25

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SlyPokerDog, Oct 24, 2024.

  1. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    you do know that Giddey is only 1 year older than Scoot, right? actually, about 16 months older; it's not like he's 4 or 5 years older

    as far as shooting:

    FG%: Scoot .419....Giddey .465
    2ptFG%: Scoot .469....Giddey .512
    3ptFG%: Scoot .354....Giddey .378
    eFG%: Scoot .496....Giddey .531
    FT%: Scoot .767....Giddey .781
    TS%: Scoot .540....Giddey .570

    as for defense, last season, Giddey was 2nd on the Bulls in defensive rating with a mark 2.6 points better than the team. Scoot was 14th on his team with a mark 2.3 points worse than his team. Giddey was 2nd on the team in DBPM at +1.1. Scoot was 14th on his team with a DBPM of -0.8.

    Giddey averaged 15-8-7 last season with 7 triple-doubles. He was 9th in the league in assists with a 2.48 assist/turnover ratio. Scoot's ratio was 1.89

    Getting Giddey locked up on a 4-year/110M deal would be pretty good. Not sure he'd agree to it, but maybe. Getting Portland's pick back from the Bulls could be valuable, especially in 2028 when the Blazers have the swap with Milwaukee

    ultimately I'm not sure I'd do the trade but it is pretty intriguing. Maybe lean yes
     
  2. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    It's a lot closer if you look at Giddey's last year in OKC when they played similar minutes and Giddey was behind SGA.

    But Giddey has averaged over 30 mpg for 3 of his 4 seasons. Scoot has never been given that opportunity.

    upload_2025-8-3_14-13-27.png
     
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  3. UKRAINEFAN

    UKRAINEFAN Well-Known Member

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    Yes.
     
  4. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    To me, Giddey's ceiling is much lower than Scoot's.

    No thanks. Not doing that trade. Giddey is a role player. I think Scoot still has the potential to be a All-Star.
     
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  5. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    but the trade isn't for Giddey after his 2nd or 3rd season; it's for Giddey now vs Scoot now. Considering Giddey is still 22 it's hard to assign more upside to 21 year old Scoot. Maybe Scoot will take a big leap in the next 2 seasons, but Giddey has already elevated his game and taken the leap. Bird in the hand

    I get why you'd want to bet on the upside of Scoot; you've been one of his biggest supporters. But this isn't trading Scoot for another hope-for-upside prospect. It's trading for a very versatile 6'7 PG-Wing with triple-double ability who appears to be playing solid defense; and getting him for a pretty decent contract

    by the way, over the last 25 games last season when the Bulls turned the team over to Giddey he averaged 20 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 8 assists while shooting 45% on three's.
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2025
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  6. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    You mean Giddey now.... on a team where they had literally nobody else and he got the ball in his hands?

    Scoot has never had the opportunity that Giddey has had.
     
  7. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    Not at all Giddy for Giddy.
     
  8. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Key things to look at:

    First two years

    Total minutes
    Giddey - 4067 total minutes played
    Scoot - 3524 total minutes played

    Starts
    Giddey - 130 starts
    Scoot - 42 starts

    MPG
    Giddey - 31.1
    Scoot - 27.5

    Giddey just flatly had a better opportunity to play in his first two seasons.

    It's interesting to see how similar their development has been from year one to year two in shooting.

    Two points
    Giddey (yr 1) 49.2% from 2
    Scoot (yr 1) 41.6% from 2

    Giddey (yr 2) 52.4% from 2 (+3.14%)
    Scoot (yr 2) 47% from 2 (+5.4%)

    Three points
    Giddey (yr 1) 26.3%
    Scoot (yr 1) 32.5%

    Giddey (yr 2) 32.5% (+3.2%)
    Scoot (yr 2) 35.4% (+2.9%)

    eFG%
    Giddey (yr 1) 46%
    Scoot (yr 1) 44%

    Giddey (yr 2) 51.6% (+5.6%)
    Scoot (yr 2) 49.6% (+5.6%)

    TS%
    Giddey (yr 1) 47.8%
    Scoot (yr 1) 48.9%

    Giddey (yr 2) 53.3% (+5.5%)
    Scoot (yr 2) 54% (+5.1%)
     
  9. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

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    No.
     
  10. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    No. Not convinced that Giddey isn't just the Australian Michael Carter-Williams.
     
  11. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    so you want to compare 2 players at the same time in their careers even though one has advanced quite a ways past that point...ok:

    upload_2025-8-4_9-2-26.png

    Deni a little more efficient as a shooter; he got to FT line a little more and shot fewer three's. Giddey better overall; better at rebounding, assists, blocks, steals, defense. Higher winshare/48, BPM, VORP. Giddey had a 2.47 assist/turnover ratio; Deni 1.79. Deni was on a worse team so a little skew disadvantage there. Giddey on a little better team, and by the way, Giddey's team had a better record than Portland this season so it's not a case he had a clear runway on a terrible team while Scoot was buried on a good team

    as I said, this was a maybe yes, maybe not trade idea for me. I probably lean yes because I like Giddey's trajectory, versatility, and length and think he'd be a better fit with Jrue and Dame; and the proposed contract value seemed good. But I can understand why people suspect he's fool's gold
     
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  12. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Sure but they play different positions. Unless you think Deni is a point guard. I think FTA is the key though. That's where Deni really separates himself from Giddey right now. So do you think Giddey is going to keep pace?
    Deni went from 0.8 FTA -> 1.7 FTA -> 2.2 FTA -> 3.6 FTA -> 5.2 FTA.
    Giddey went from 1.5 FTA -> 1.9 FTA -> 1.6 FTA -> 3.2 FTA

    They're similar rebounders and Giddey is the better passer, but Deni's style is attack attack attack. That's why he is so good at generating fouls. I'm not sure Giddey can match that. I think Deni will have another jump in FTA this year.

    I think Scoot and Giddey seem to have similar pass-first tendencies and interestingly they seem to be on similar trajectories in terms of development. Giddey is clearly a better rebounder and I don't think that's going to change. The main thing is that I don't think Giddey is going to take any more massive leaps. I think he is what he is. I think Scoot's floor is what Giddey is now. I think he has a much higher ceiling if he can conquer the mental side of the game. He's just a better athlete.

    Do you think Giddey is going to take another leap?
     
  13. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    he hasn't really leaped, he's just got better every season; and he's only 22. So, I'd anticipate he will continue to improve; just like Deni. I mean, Deni didn't leap between his 4th season and 5th season, but he got better. I'd anticipate the same for Giddey, and he was a year younger than Deni at the same stage.
     
  14. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Going from 1.6 to 3.2 is a leap. He had stagnated a bit in his first three seasons. So will he continue to go up because Deni went from 3.6 to 5.2.

    I think Giddey also has a pretty massive leap in 3p% when he got to Chicago.

    It will be interesting to see what he does this season but my gut says he will level off.
     
  15. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    his PER went up 9%; TS went up 4%; rebounding stayed the same. His minutes went down 17% in his 3rd season so the 3rd-->4th season differentials are skewed quite a bit

    his 3 pt% did jump up from .337 to .378. But Deni's 3pt% went from .297 to .374 between his 3rd and 4th season. Giddey only improved by 12% while Deni improved by 26%. Not sure Giddey made much of a leap. Deni leveled off in three's last season; possible Giddey will do the same, but somebody who is versatile on both ends of the floor with good length, who can pass & rebound like he does, have a solid assist/turnover mark, plays good defense, and shoots in the 37-38% range from three has pretty good value

    Giddey's biggest leap statistically occurred after the Bulls traded LaVine. Giddey really started cooking over the last 25-26 games. Bulls went 17-9 over that time with Giddey leading the way
     
  16. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    Crazy how opportunity and working through mistakes can help young guys develop faster.
     
  17. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I tend to agree, but it's worth noting that Giddey has averaged 29.3 minutes while Scoot has averaged 27.5. A 1.8 minute difference isn't very significant. Giddey has a 23.0% usage rate; Scoot 24.5%. Giddey has averaged .200 FGA/possession; Scoot has averaged .206

    I know Scoot's role has been a little different, but there isn't any major opportunity difference other than more seasons. I'm not really buying the opportunity excuse. Giddey did make a jump when LaVine was traded. Maybe Scoot will make a jump with Simons not around
     
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  18. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    Scoot playing the 2 beside Simons and Grant isn't what I would call a great "opportunity" for him...
     
  19. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    c'mon man....he hasn't played SG, although that does point out his lack of versatility

    Scoot played alongside Simons (28% & 25% usage rates), Grant (26% & 19% usage rates) & Sharpe (22% & 25% usage rates). Meanwhile, Giddey played alongside SGA (33% & 33% usage rates), Jalen Williams (18% & 24% usage rates), Zach LaVine (27% usage) and Coby White (25% usage). Again, there's no significant opportunity difference there. except that SGA was by far the highest usage player either Scoot or Giddey played with
     
  20. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Yeah he had a good post-All-star

    upload_2025-8-4_17-30-5.png

    Deni was really good too though.

    upload_2025-8-4_17-30-36.png

    Another interesting one

    Giddey
    upload_2025-8-4_17-41-47.png

    Scoot
    upload_2025-8-4_17-42-4.png
     

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