<u>SEC Bubble Teams</u> Arkansas: <u>Why They'll Make It</u>: Arkansas is going to have to do A LOT to make an attempt to get in the tourney. But the Kentucky game that they lost by only may help them out even though they lost. They also have a nice little win over LSU who will be likely headed to the touney. I think since Arkansas will be playing Kentucky in the second of the SEC tourney, that if they win that, they have a better chance of getting in. <u>Why They Won't</u>: If you ask me, I say Arkansas has no chance what so ever of getting in. They had too easy of a non-conference schedule, and they lost too many SEC games(10). And with the SEC down this year, it's not looking good at all for Arkansas. But they did show that they will compete next year with close games against 'Bama and UK. South Carolina: <u>Why They Will Make It</u>: South Carolina has only one chance of getting in, and that's because of their key victory over #3 ranked Kentucky. They beat them by 12 at home, but other than that win, none of the other stick out. They gave #2 Kansas a good game by only losing by 4, and they gave #7 Pittsburgh a good game by only losing by 4 to them as well. <u>Why They Won't</u>: Like Arkansas, South Carolina hasn't beat any quality teams. Losing to medicore teams such as Tennessee and Auburn show me that this team just isn't touney material. I guess the only way you'll see them making is if they can somehow win the SEC tourney and that's highly unlikely. Vanderbilt: <u>Why They'll Make It</u>: Vandy has a huge 14 point win over top 25 ranked Alabama and also has a solid win over Dayton. They also have put together a respectable 8-8 record in the SEC. And the Alabama win may just get them in the tourney. <u>Why They Won't</u>: Vandy has some very bad losses that's going to hurt them bad like the loss against Georgia, and also went on a 4 game losing streak at one time. I think that Georgia loss is really going to hurt them because Georgia ended up with only two conference wins. So, a good run in the tourney will help them a ton. <u>C-USA Bubble Teams</u> UAB: <u>Why They?d Make It</u>: UAB hasn't really beat a top team in the nation, but they do have a respectable 10-6 record in the conference and an overall record of 20-9. They've beaten a few quality conference opponents such as Memphis, Marquette, and DePaul, so that could help them out vastly. <u>Why They Won?t</u>: UAB just hasn't beat enough quality teams. They've had chances against Oklahoma State, Louisvile, Charlotte, and Cincinnati. They've also lost to teams that they could have easily beaten like TCU, East Carolina, Tulane, and Richmond. So I feel they have no shot at getting an invitation to the big dance unless they win the C-USA tourney. Marquette: <u>Why They'd Make It</u>: You can make a case that Marquette may make it with the nice win over #22 ranked Wisconsin, but other than that, they haven't had that other standout win. They did give #16 ranked Arizona a good game at, but couldn't come away with the upset. <u>Why They Won't</u>: Marquette has no chance what so ever of getting in the tourney because they finished with a 7-9 record in the C-USA. And losing their starting PG Travis Diener isn't going give them no edge as they head into the conference tourney. If they don't win the tourey, than their season is as good as done. DePaul: <u>Why They'll Make It</u>: DePaul has had a very nice season with key wins over Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and Marquette. I think if they can knock off say a Louisville team in the conference tourney, then that should give them a petty good chance to get in. <u>Why They Won't Make It</u>: DePaul has lost a lot of gimme non-conference games like to Bradley, Northwestern, and Northern Illinois. And didn't play tough of a non-conference schedule which should really hurt their chances a lot.
<u>Big 12 Bubble Teams</u> Iowa State: <u>Why They'll Make It</u>: Iowa State has racked up a ton of nice wins over quality opponents like the wins over Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Texas. I think they're in no doubt because of the conference wins they've picked up. <u>Why They Won't Make it</u>: The only way I don't see them getting in is if the committee takes their RPI of 64 and their strength of schedule which is 92. So, I think this team should definitely get an invite. Texas A&M: <u>Why They'll Make It</u>: I think it's going to be tough for them to get in, but with the nice win over Texas earlier in the year when Texas was at full strength may help them get in. But most likely that won't be enough. If they just win the games they need to win in the Big 12 tourney and they may get in. <u>Why They Won't</u>: No way they get in with that strength of schedule being 123. That just tells me that this team isn't playing the tough teams needed to make the big dance. <u>Pac-10 Bubble Teams</u> Stanford: <u>Why They'll Make It</u>: Stanford should definitely get an invite to the tournament. With the recent win over #10 Washington this team should be set to go. The win over UCLA also helps a lot. <u>Why They Won't</u>: I don't really see an argument of why they won't make it, but they did have a few bad losses earlier in the year. For instance the loss against below .500 Tennessee could hurt their chances but it's not likely. UCLA: <u>Why They'll Make It:</u> I think they too will get in, but will be among the teams that barely get an invite. I believe that the wins over Notre Dame and Washington will be enough to get them in. <u>Why They Won't</u>: UCLA had one bad loss in my mind against California, but other than that, I can't make a case of why they shouldn't get in. But there's still a chance that the committee takes a very good look at this team's progress and see that they went 1-4 against ranked opponents this season.
<font size="4"><u>ACC</u></font> <font size="3">Locks: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Duke</font> <font size="3">Bubbles:</font> <font size="3">Georgia Tech</font> Why They?d Make It: They had a very impressive non-conference run which included a win over Michigan by 31 who was at full strength at the time, as win over Air Force. Their only losses came to Gonzaga and Kansas, which was a last minute overtime loss. They started off ACC play with a 5-6 record, but that was without their point guard, B.J. Elder. They also knocked off Wake Forest later in the season. Plus, you?ve got to think that the NCAA selection committee will favor them as an ACC team. Why They Wouldn?t: They don?t really have a bad loss that would really keep them out. Pretty much all of their losses came against tournament bound teams. However, they do have a large quantity of those ?quality losses?. They?re the ultimate bubble team right now as they?re pretty split right down the middle with pro?s and con?s. Prediction: NCAA ------------- <font size="3">Virginia Tech</font> Why They?d Make It: ACC play really helped Virginia Tech. They were able to prove themselves by beating Duke, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Maryland. Two things that the NCAA Selection Committee seems to love are ACC teams and teams that are able to beat Duke. Virginia Tech could get lucky by fitting that mold. Why They Wouldn?t: I didn?t think it was possible, but Virginia Tech has a Strength of Schedule of 175 despite playing in the ACC. In their non-conference play, the best team they played was Mississippi State, and they were blown out. Their best win came against lowly UT-Chattanooga. They also have losses to Western Michigan, VMI, St. John?s, Florida State, and Clemson. Their RPI is also very low at 119. Prediction: NIT ------------- <font size="3">North Carolina State</font> Why They?d Make It: They finished 10-3 in their non-conference schedule and were just two games below .500 in ACC play. The big issue with them has been injuries. They have had just as many injuries as any other team in the NCAA and the Selection Committee might give them some recognition for that. They knocked off Georgia Tech twice, including when they were #8 in the nation, and also beat Maryland twice. Why They Wouldn?t: They haven?t really beaten anyone but bubble teams. Their RPI is only 91, and their Strength of Schedule is only 78. They also suffered embarrassing losses to St. John?s and Florida State Prediction: NCAA, if they beat Wake Forest. If they lose, then it?s really too close to call. ------------- <font size="3">Maryland</font> Why They?d Make It: Their RPI is 50 and their Strength of Schedule is 8. They swept Duke, blew out Memphis when they were ranked, and beat Georgia Tech. Why They Wouldn?t: They just went 0-3 against pathetic Clemson. That right there can be enough to knock the best of teams out of the NCAA tournament. They also haven?t come through in any big games outside of the games against Duke. They also had a relatively weak non-conference schedule. Outside of George Washington and Wisconsin, they didn?t play anyone worth mentioning, and both George Washington and Wisconsin murdered them. Prediction: NIT <font size="4"><u>Big Ten</u></font> <font size="3">Locks: Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin</font> <font size="3">Bubbles:</font> <font size="3">Iowa</font> Why They?d Make It: They played phenomenally in their non-conference schedule. They finished 12-1 with wins over Louisville, Texas, Air Force, Northern Iowa, Texas Tech by thirty, and Iowa State. Their only loss came to the now #2 North Carolina Tarheels. They also played Illinois tougher than everyone else (exception: Ohio State), taking them all the way to overtime. They?re only 8-9 in the Big Ten at this point, but they do have wins over tournament worthy teams like Minnesota, Ohio State, and Indiana. When you look at this Hawkeyes team, you also have to consider that they went on such a bad skid because they lost their star player, Pierre Pierce, due to legal complications. However, they have since learned how to play without him and are 5-0 in their last five Big Ten games heading up to their matchup with Michigan State. Why They Wouldn?t: The Hawkeyes went on a stretch of thirteen games where they went 4-9, including embarrassing losses to Michigan and Purdue. However, most of those games came against great tournament-type teams, such as Michigan state, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, and Indiana. I think that their current run overshadows this stretch. Prediction: NCAA ------------- <font size="3">Minnesota</font> Why They?d Make It: Ten seems to be the magic number in the Big Ten. Unless your non-conference schedule was really bad, ten wins in the Big Ten pretty much guarantees you an NCAA tournament bid. They finished 10-3 in their non-conference schedule as well, with two of those losses coming to ranked Alabama and ranked Oklahoma. The other loss was a one point buzzer-beater loss to Florida State, which isn?t a terrible loss either. They made noise in the Big Ten tournament by beating Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State. They also have a decent RPI of 49. Why They Wouldn?t: They don?t really have a single statement win. They have one ranked win over Wisconsin, but outside of that their only good wins come against Big Ten bubble teams. In their non-conference schedule, their only half-way decent win was against Holy Cross. Prediction: NCAA ------------- <font size="3">Indiana</font> Why They?d Make It: Their Strength of Schedule is an impressive 19, and figuring how the Big Ten conference play probably weighted that Strength of Schedule down, they most likely have the #1 or #2 strongest non-conference schedule in the nation. They lost a lot, but most of those losses were very close games. They only lost to Charlotte by 1, Wisconsin by 2, Minnesota by 5, Connecticut by 5, and North Carolina by 7. They are also the only team in the Big Ten outside of Illinois who beat both Wisconsin and Michigan State. You can?t overlook a terrific win over Oral Roberts either. They also have those magical 10 Big Ten wins to fall back on and are 4-1 in their last five games with their only loss coming to #23 Wisconsin. Why They Wouldn?t: Indiana?s RPI is a bit on the low side at 71, and they only won one of their difficult non-conference games. They were also blown out by Northwestern and lost to Missouri. Prediction: If they beat Minnesota - NCAA, If they lost to Minnesota - NIT <font size="4"><u>Other Conferences</u></font> <font size="3">Locks: Gonzaga, Pacific, Utah, Nevada, Southern Illinois, St. Mary's</font> <font size="3">Bubbles:</font> <font size="3">Vermont</font> Why They?d Make It: Vermont has an excellent RPI of 23 and also have a very respectable 3-3 record against top 50 RPI teams. They also weren?t afraid to play the big boys, as they scheduled away games at both North Carolina, Kansas, and Nevada this season. Why They Wouldn?t: The America East Conference is not exactly a two bid conference, and that fact will hurt them if it comes down to them or an ACC or Big East team for the final at-large bid. They also didn?t finish as strong as they should have. If they lose their conference tournament and have to make it as an at-large bid then they?ll be 6-4 in their last ten games in a sorry America East Conference, and the Selection Committee factors in how teams finish. This is also a team that is 0-3 against ranked opponents and had an ugly loss at the beginning of the season to American as well as a blowout loss at the end of the season at the hands of Maine. Prediction: NIT ------------- <font size="3">Miami (OH)</font> Why They?d Make It: Miami (OH) has an excellent Strength of Schedule for a mid-major at 53. They also have some key wins against some of the elite mid-majors, Wichita State and Buffalo. If anything got them in though, it would be their RPI of 28. Why They Wouldn?t: They?re another mid-major team that has finished off their season poorly. Without winning their conference tournament, they will have been 1-4 in their last five games. They also don?t have any ranked wins. In fact, their only ranked opponent was Cincinnati, and they were blown out in that game by a score of 77-53. Prediction: NIT ------------- <font size="3">Northern Iowa</font> Why They?d Make It: This is a team that is a lot better than statistics and win-loss percentages tell. They finished with a solid 11-7 in the nation?s most underrated conference, the Missouri Valley Conference, which is a conference that is probably just as strong as the SEC and the Conference USA. They were also 9-2 in non-conference play, with their only two losses coming on the road at the last minute to #23 Iowa and Cincinnati. They have some solid wins over Iowa State, Southern Illinois, Wichita State, and Wisc. Green Bay. An RPI of 38 and a Strength of Schedule of 60 don?t hurt their cause either. Why They Wouldn?t: They probably had their at-large bid hopes shattered with a conference tournament loss to SMS because the NCAA more than likely won?t look at the Missouri Valley Conference as a three bid conference. They also got blown out by Evansville, Bradley, and Drake. Prediction: NIT ------------- <font size="3">Holy Cross</font> Why They?d Make It: If Holy Cross were to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large bid, it would be solely based on their record and their RPI. They?re 13-1 in conference action and 24-5 overall and have an RPI of 46. Why They Wouldn?t: They haven?t beaten anyone who will be moving on to the tournament. They played Boston College, Minnesota, and Vermont but got embarrassed by all three. Also, their strength of schedule is an absolutely horrific 207. Holy Cross is also a team that lost to Princeton and was blown out by Bucknell. They?ve basically gotten by with 24-5 record by beating up on bad teams. Prediction: NIT ------------- <font size="3">UTEP</font> Why They?d Make It: This is another team that has a great RPI, but this team for some reason actually has all of the analysts at ESPN behind them as well. Pretty much everyone predicting bubble teams on ESPN has counted UTEP in because of their 24-7 record and second place finish in the decent WAC. Their RPI is 51 and they have a decent win against Arizona State to fall back on. Why They Wouldn?t: If you really look at UTEP?s schedule, you have to wonder why they?re even on the bubble. The teams that they play are not even worthy of being considered basketball teams. Yes, they have 24 wins, but let?s look at some of the teams that they?ve played: Occidental, New Mexico State (twice), Jackson State, Delaware State, IPFW, Panhandle State, Princeton, Alabama State, and Boise State. I?ll be honest, I didn?t even know some of those schools existed. When they played the big boys like Pacific, Nevada, Southern Illinois, and Texas Tech they basically got run out of the gym, especially against Texas Tech who beat them by fifteen. Prediction: NCAA (Although, if it were up to me I?d put them in the NIT) ------------- <font size="3">Wichita State</font> Why They?d Make It: They almost entered the Missouri Valley Conference with an unblemished record at 9-1 and ended up after conference play at a respectable 20-9. They also have a good RPI of 48 and a top 100 Strength of Schedule. They also have quality wins over Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa. Why They Wouldn?t: They fall into the same category as UTEP as a team that didn?t really beat anyone good in non-conference play. They also have three awful losses to Manhattan, Indiana State, and Bradley. Plus, with Creighton winning their conference, Southern Illinois looking like a lock, and Northern Iowa probably having a better bubble case, Wichita State would have to be the fourth Missouri Valley Conference team admitted into the NCAA Tournament, and that just seems farfetched at this point. Prediction: NIT ------------- <font size="3">Oral Roberts </font> Why They?d Make It: At 87, their RPI isn?t as decent as most other bubble teams, but they do have a decent 25-7 record to fall back on, as well as the Mid-Continent regular season title to fall back on. They played a decent non-conference schedule, including games at Indiana, Hawaii, and UAB. They also blew out Georgetown on the road. Why They Wouldn?t: Despite a few good games in their non-conference schedule, they still have a Strength of Schedule of 271. The Mid-Continent Conference is very weak this season, so most people think that the loss to blow .500 Oakland (MI) was the final nail in the coffin Prediction: NIT ------------- <font size="3">George Washington</font> Why They?d Make It: The wins over #9 Michigan State and #12 Maryland still stick out on their resume. Their only losses came in hard fought games against #2 Wake Forest and tournament bound West Virginia. George Washington also won their division in the Atlantic Ten conference. Why They Wouldn?t: For whatever reason, their RPI is only 80 and Strength of Schedule is way down there at 198. Those statistics are very misleading though. They also lost two of their last four games and also lost earlier in the year to UMass. Prediction: NCAA ------------- <font size="3">New Mexico</font> Why They?d Make It: They?re 10-4 in the conference, 23-6 overall, and feature on of the NCAA?s best players, Danny Granger. With Granger, they are 22-3, and two of those three losses came against Wake Forest and Oregon, who was undefeated at the time. They also stand as the only MWC team who has knocked off Utah this season. They?re also #2 in the MWC only behind Utah. Why They Wouldn?t: The NCAA Selection Committee might not necessarily look at the games when Granger didn?t play and discard them like many Lobos fans are hoping. New Mexico also has a horrific Strength of Schedule of 298 and a below-average RPI of 88. Prediction: If they make the MWC finals and play Utah close, then NCAA.
Big East Bubble Teams Notre Dame Why they will? Notre Dame has one of the best point guards in the Nation with Chris Thomas. Despite playing in one of the toughest conferences in college, the Big East, Notre Dame has 17 wins. Those wins include victories over UConn, BC, and a near upset against Syracuse at Syracuse. Why they won't? Notre Dame needed to have a strong performance in the Big East tournament. Unfortunately they got bounced in the first round last night against Rutgers. It was their fourth loss in their last five games. Georgetown Why they will? The Hoyas got a much needed win against Seton Hall, in round one of the Big East Tourney. They have to keep it going to keep their bubble hopes alive. Loss by Notre Dame helps their chances. Why they won't? The Hoyas have not beaten a ranked opponent all season long. They also finished poorly losing their last 5 games all against Big East opponents.
Kind of frusterated that Oakland upset Oral Roberts. Oral Roberts had a great season, only to get shut down by Oakland. It kind of sucks to see 12-18 team get into the tournament over a 25-7 team. It's obvious, Oakland is going to get torn apart in the NCAA tournament unless they can pull off some miracle win against whoever they play. As for Virginia Tech, I think they might make it into the NCAA tournament. They had an oustanding season. Who would have thought they would finish as high as they did in the conference? Plus, getting wins over Duke, UNC, and other big teams like that, makes your resume that much better.
<u>Pac-10 Awards</u> <font color="Navy">Player of the Year</font> Ike Diogu | Arizona State Was the most dominant player in the conference despite his team's subpar performance. Diogu averaged 22.4 points per game and 9.8 rebounds and will most likely be a high pick in the NBA Draft. This award could have gone to Salim Stoudamire, whom is almost solely responsible for Arizona's stellar play with his impeccable shooting stroke but when it comes down to it, no other player absolutely took over games like Ike Diogu. Honorable Mention: Salim Stoudamire | Arizona <font color="Navy">Freshman of the Year</font> Jordan Farmar | UCLA One of the main reasons UCLA should be in the NCAA tournament and only in his first year. No other freshman in the Pac-10 has made such a large sudden impact on his team more than Jordan Farmar. Definitely the diaper dandy of the Pac-10's first year players. Honorable Mention: Malik Hairston | Oregon <font color="Navy"> Coach of the Year</font> Lorenzo Romar | Washington When Lorenzo Romar took over for Bob Bender at the helm of the Huskies, he was faced with a challenge to turn a cellar dwellar into a contender. Boy has he delivered...this is a banner year for Romar with his star players all mature and some excellent recruits coming in for the Dawgs. Washington has now reached heights that no one could have expected and most is thanks to Coach Romar. Honorable Mention: Lute Olsen | Arizona <font color="Navy"> Disappointment of the Year</font> Oregon This team really didn't look that bad on paper, Aaron Brooks is coming into his own, supposedly the twin brother of Carmelo Anthony in Malik Hairston arrives, and the talent overall wasn't too bad. However, this team just couldn't pull it together in the end. The Ducks couldn't win to save their lives in Pac-10 play no matter how close they were. Honorable Mention: California <font color="Navy">All Pac-10 1st Team</font> Ike Diogu | Arizona State (22ppg 10rpg) Channing Frye | Arizona (16ppg 8rpg) Tre Simmons | Washington (16ppg 41% 3pt) Salim Stoudamire | Arizona (18ppg) Nate Robinson | Washington (17ppg 5apg) <font color="Navy">2nd Team</font> Matt Haryasz | Stanford Dijon Thompson | UCLA David Lucas | Oregon State Chris Hernandez | Stanford Hassan Adams | Arizona <font color="Navy">3rd Team</font> Jeff Varem | Washington State Dan Grunfeld | Stanford Thomas Kelati | Washington State Aaron Brooks | Oregon Will Conroy | Washington
