Lockout Empty Threat

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">On April 17, the two sides essentially had agreed to the following:

A reduction of the maximum length of player's contract from seven (parent team) and six years (suitor) to five and five; a reduction of annual increases from 121/2 and 10 percent, respectively, to 11.5 and nine percent; a raise in the age limit from 18 to 19 with a lottery exception (anybody, date of birth notwithstanding, drafted in the top 14 would be eligible to play in the league); the players' guaranteed share of the business related income would remain a minimum of 57 percent but soar most likely to over 60; the cap would increase from 48 to 51 percent, thus the average salary would swell from $4.4 to $5.5M; and drug testing would be strengthened pertaining to performance-enhancing substances and abuse, including random exams of veterans. Nothing explicit was outlined. There's a continuing debate concerning how many times the vets could be given a random urinalysis for steroids versus recreational drugs.

Which brings us to union's most contentions issue, the 10-percent escrow tax on players' salaries. Over the last four years they've had to return $700M to the league, including $187M this season, which is distributed among all the teams not exceeding the luxury tax level.

Hunter insists the escrow tax must be sliced in half; his 450 player constituency demands it.

On April 17 the league says it agreed to precisely that, saving the players roughly $95M next season and a half billion dollars over the six-year length of the new deal if it's all done at once. The union says that's not its understanding of the offer. It claims the league only agreed to cut a half point per season for a total of three. The union says it would be content if the league cut one point per year for five. A memo sent to Hunter on May 18 pledges a graduated cut from 10 to five percent over the life of the deal.

In other words, if I'm reading this difference of opinion correctly, the lockout and death-knell for the NBA will be averted without a doubt, when, not if, this specific standoff is solved.

Should the league, which has since very quietly compromised its position on contract length (consenting to six and five years in a June 2 covert meeting with the union) authenticate its offer to carve the escrow tax in half over the full term of the deal, and not throw any curve balls re other issues, I foresee a arrangement in place by June 30.

Should the league offer to bisect the escrow tax in year one of the new agreement I assure you the union will sign some time today.

Should the negotiations inexplicably breakdown Shaq has offered to pay for the league's funeral. </div>

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