Thinking

I was just reading back through some old threads and I saw my old " What Will The Warriors Lineup Look Like Next Year" thread. I was reading back and I wrote it in Early April and I saw my draft predicitions. The Warriors had the 8 pick, and the 38. With the thirty eight I predicted Anglo Gigli or Taft in each one. For the 8 pick, I said Hakkim Warrick and Tiago Splitter. Damn what a fool I was. If I were to see that the Warriors took Diogu, Memphis got Warrick, Splitter took out his name, we had the 9 pick, 40 and 42, and we got Taft and Ellis, I would have laughed if someone told me Diogu would be ours, Granger, Warrick, Splitter, and Green would not be in the lottery or would pull out for that matter. Just one of those thoughts that sticks in your head

 

hehe. Yep the difference in draft stock between April and June is LARGE. Heck people right before the draft can rarely predict what actually does happen. Kind of like the Lampe fall last year or the Qyntel Woods fall the other year; or the ones you mentioned such as Granger falling out of the lottery, Charlie going to the Raptors so high, etc.

 

Yeah, don't feel bad. It's why I never make mock drafts - each one gets destroyed by one team or another. I mean I thought Splitter was going until I heard more substantial news about his buyout problems. It's why I never speak in definites, or I'd look foolish every time. What I do instead is predict a field of candidates that fit Mully's style and then narrow them down for Warriors fans to look at.

 

Yeah,what kinda monkey would have said we'd take Ike a few months ago

Time will tell who actually are the top 10 in this crop,who are late blooming projects,who are duds.A few years ago you'd get bonus points from saying Piston's take Darko-but now he clearly did not rate a top 10 pick at all. In this draft,some solid guys who got picked out of the top 10 will be real good pros,and will contribute a lot as rookies-including Warrick,Granger,Hodge and Simien. G Green has rare abilities that need to be detailed to fit the requirements of pro ball,that he puts out a good effort will speed the process and should mean he does reach his star potential. Marvin W,ATL fans think,will step in and shine right away which tell me they saw few UNC games. Marvin is a nice guy with an ideal physical package However- his D is not as good as Murphy's or Dunleavy's He has only some basic inside moves which won't work against quality D And his efforts on the boards were inconsistant He's got to get dedicated and then learn stuff-and then he's on the road to being a great player...but there are some IF's in there. With IKE we don't get a lot of if's,he has a winning approach and a proven set of skills. He also is a player who has specific talents the team has needed

 

Remember-when we talk about " Draft Stock" we are looking at a consensus of analysts who try to figure out,to basically guess,at what the GM's the real scouts think. A while back there was a lot of talk of "upside". "Upside" can mean quite a few things. Often it meant the guy is real tall,runs without looking klutzy,is quite young,has just enough real SKILL to be a good player on a JC team. Motivation/work ethic/learning curve/hustle/ toughness,all these so-called intangibles tended to get overlooked. I remember Olajuwon in college. At first he was freaky athletic-barely knew how to play,but he learned at a pace that was amazing. The improvement month to month was notable,he went from ragged bench player to top of the draft in a couple of years. Had great intangibles. Fast forward to Martynas. Some assumed he had some intangibles going. He'd start to make an impact,pick up momentum,go lotto. Wrong. It appeared he learned zero,added no skills,didn't do much to gain the strength to even cut it in euroball. So,if you are 7-3 but don't get it,your upside is not so good. I figure that GM's figured that out a while ago-but there's a lag before mock sites hear enough rumor to change a point of view they had committed to. Trying to logically predict the next move of a lunatic or a fool is not easy. Logic only applies to rational folks,and logical folks have a tough time putting themselves in the mindset of anyone whose process is unexplainable. Toronto and Orlando took players who have significant questions-and who also seem to have only moderate potential. They logically would have gone for Green or Granger.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post">Yeah,what kinda monkey would have said we'd take Ike a few months ago

Time will tell who actually are the top 10 in this crop,who are late blooming projects,who are duds.A few years ago you'd get bonus points from saying Piston's take Darko-but now he clearly did not rate a top 10 pick at all. In this draft,some solid guys who got picked out of the top 10 will be real good pros,and will contribute a lot as rookies-including Warrick,Granger,Hodge and Simien. G Green has rare abilities that need to be detailed to fit the requirements of pro ball,that he puts out a good effort will speed the process and should mean he does reach his star potential. Marvin W,ATL fans think,will step in and shine right away which tell me they saw few UNC games. Marvin is a nice guy with an ideal physical package However- his D is not as good as Murphy's or Dunleavy's He has only some basic inside moves which won't work against quality D And his efforts on the boards were inconsistant He's got to get dedicated and then learn stuff-and then he's on the road to being a great player...but there are some IF's in there. With IKE we don't get a lot of if's,he has a winning approach and a proven set of skills. He also is a player who has specific talents the team has needed </div>
Lol you are the guy that orignally got me on the Diogu bandwagon, and thank you, he is looking good every time I hear about him. Then we have so many other guys to develop like Ellis and taft

 

I was on the Splitter band wagon for a while, but then Diogu seemed like the no-brainer for next best big that does all those basic things we like to see in big players.

1.) Footwork / Good positioning
2.) Toughness/Aggressiveness (Willingness to bang and pursue those rebounds)
3.) Good Hands (Good Coordination Reflexes)
4.) A good balance between strength and athleticism and finesse
5.) Ambidexterity (Scores with either hand equally well)
6.) Basketball IQ

Splitter essentially has all those qualities, except Diogu right now plays stronger, has a more reliable shot (especially from the line and from deeper out), has a wider array of big man moves, and is more proven in terms of numbers. It's just a matter of what someone likes more and whoever thinks will be the best option in the long run (A highly athletic 7 footer SForward to PForward in the mold of Pau Gasol, but with better defense, better midrange shot but worse free throw shooting. Or Diogu, who is a mildly athletic, short, compact, but immensely strong and well coordinated Elton Brand/Zach Randolph type player with an outside shot and 80% accuracy from the line).

While Diogu may not be physically intimidating on defense all the time, he can hold his own with his willingness to alter shots with his length and throw his wide body around to deny scorers down low. He's also pretty mobile with that immense weight and he plays with his strength and his body, which is what a big player should be doing. I think Ike's best attribute is the fact he could be a scoring machine on some nights because he has a unique ability to create his own shot inside and out. He can hit the college 3 pointer, the midrange jumper, can be a pumpfake master drawing the foul in the process of shooting, or take the ball inside by driving on his defenders. Most importantly, his main game is to play with variety. He has several go-to moves like playing down low by backing someone down, the spin move turnaround short range jumper (a la Zach Randolph), tun around fadeaway, or the step-back, pumpfake up and under move. He is basically a 255 lb guy with a 7'4 wingspan capable of being a triple threat from the high post and is a guy that primarily plays in the low post.

A lot of 6'8 power forwards don't really work out well in the league (John Thomas, Marcus Fizer, Kedrick Brown, Lonny Baxter, Donnell Harvey etc, but the same could be said about the number of 6'10 guys that don't pan out either because of lack of skill/heart like Marcus Haislip, Michael Bradley, Jerome Moiso, Cow Bowdler, Leon Smith, Jerome Beasley, Samaki Walker, etc.), but I guess the Warriors brass feels that with Diogu's heart and arsenal of skills, he is strong, quick, and long enough to play a 6'10 guy with a simlar wingspan and way less skills.

Let's hope what we see on paper as being the closest to an ideal candidate for a big player proves it in the big leagues. Otherwise, we'll be upset we could have picked somebody like Gerald Green, who with the right help, could be a dominant swingman with the shot touch/high release point and the one-on-one skills with the ball. I think as long as Pietrus is retained, he should be similar in style to what we could have had in Gerald Green, but with more of a blue collar, "do what it takes for the good of the team", mentality at starter or bench (like SuperManu Ginobilli). Diogu is a type of player that we don't have and hopefully he'll be great in addressing the team needs as well as playing the backup at least for a while. I think he's going to be a very solid big man that plays like a veteran and can be an impact player once the refs learn to respect him. Until then, we could be seeing some early foul trouble, some soft play as a result of some bogus whistles they call on rookies on offense and defense.