Collison's defense better than advertised?

<div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">If I had a dime for every time I heard that you can't measure defense with stats, I would be a rich man. (Well maybe not rich, but I might have enough money for a nice dinner.)

Steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds - they give us only a snapshot of what a player does on defense. We would like to have more and better data to measure defense. One direction is to collect better defensive statistics, an effort that is being spearheaded by Roland Beech at 82games.com.

Another approach is to use plus/minus statistics to measure how a team defends when a player is in the game versus when he is not. It would seem odd to say that a player was a good defender when his team defended better when he was on the bench than when he was in the game.

Now, of course, it is important to account for who a player is playing with and against. Playing beside Ben Wallace might even make me appear to be a good defender. For that reason I compute adjusted plus/minus ratings that account for who a player is playing with and against. These adjusted plus/minus ratings can then be broken down into their offensive and defensive components.

In "Measuring How NBA Players Help their Teams Win" I describe the gory details of how I compute these adjusted plus/minus ratings. (I have made a few changes since then, along with adding another year of data.) It takes a lot of data for adjusted plus/minus ratings to tell us anything useful and for that reason it is useful to ask another question. What is the average adjusted plus/minus rating of players similar to a given player? Answering this question can give me a second estimate of a players' defensive productivity and help combat errors from adjusted plus/minus ratings due to lack of data.

So combining ratings of defense from a players' own adjusted plus/minus rating and that of players similar to him, which players are the best defenders? I list the best and worst by position among players playing 1,000 or more minutes in 2004-05. These ratings are predictions for the 2005-06 season assuming that younger players will improve their defense and older players may see a decline in their defense.

Top Seven Power Forwards:

1. Tim Duncan
2. Kevin Garnett
3. Nick Collison
4. Tyson Chandler
5. Nen?
6. Andrei Kirilenko
7. Rasheed Wallace

Bottom Seven Power Forwards:

1. Matt Bonner
2. Cliff Robinson
3. Antawn Jamison
4. Juwan Howard
5. Austin Croshere
6. Antoine Walker
7. Shareef Abdur-Rahim

I am sure no one will be surprised to see Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett at the top of the list on defense for power forwards. Nick Collison is a bit of a surprise to anyone who did not watch the Sonics play a lot. (Please note that with just one year of data, ratings for rookies like Collison are more prone to error.)</div>

Dan Rosenbaum.

Obviously the last sentence there downgrades that ranking a bit, but not enough to take away from the point of this thread. In the other thread we have argued about Reggie vs Vlad and their importance, but given his defense was seen as the weakest part of his game coming into the league, I think that his continued improvement will soften any potential loss of Reggie, hence why I don't see Reggie as part of the core of this team.

Obviously no one is going to seriously argue that Nick is a better defender than Kirilenko, Chandler or Sheed, but it's a fair effort given James played only 10-15 minutes a game and our perimeter defense isn't exactly the team's strongest point.

 

My most vivid memory of Nick's defensive prowess was the game against the Knicks when they ran that high pick and roll with Steph.

The Sonics switched every time and Marbury thought it was easy pickin's. I think Collison blocked/altered like 3 of his shots in a row.

Plus in the post he's just solid, gets a good wide base, moves his feet and his arms are longer than I thought.

Lastly, who can forget his rotations in the playoffs when he took some important charges?

 

Ya, you are right. I'm sorry. I would be silly to have TWO young talented power forwards on the same team and call them both "core" players, especially when they are completely different players and can be matched up accordingly.

This topic has turned into somewhat of a joke. I like Nick, and i think he will be very good. I also think he will end up playing the 5 spot more often than not as his career progresses. Actually, the way this year is shaping up, he is our starting center so far, and that aint to shabby.

PG Ridnour
SG Allen
SF Lewis
PF Evans
C Collison

What a fun team to watch.






As for this article, I can take it or leave it. When Cliff Robinson is the second worst defensive forward in the league, your calculator is broken.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Odde24:</div><div class="quote_post">Ya, you are right. I'm sorry. I would be silly to have TWO young talented power forwards on the same team and call them both "core" players, especially when they are completely different players and can be matched up accordingly. </div>

I have never, ever said shouldn't keep Reggie. I have never, ever said we don't need him. All I have said is that he is more replaceable than Vlade. While it's just as true that we have the shooters to replace Vlad that it is we have the rebounders to replace Reggie, Vlad's big strength is you can put him on the floor with other shooters and really cause a defense problem. You don't however put out a line-up specifically to rebound, Reggie is out there to clean up after out shooters.

I don't think there is a player in the league that brings the intangibles every night like Reggie does, but with Nick's continued improvement in the areas that Reggie is so valuable in, it makes him replaceable. On the other hand, there are not a lot of 6'11 guys who can shoot it like Vlad can.

 

Reggie Evans - Best Rebounder in the league, no offensive skill set.
Vladamir Radmanavic - Not the best 6-11 Shooter in the league, Matador Defense.

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Sir Desmond:</div><div class="quote_post">All I have said is that he is more replaceable than Vlade. </div>

And all I said was that you are wrong. Let's move on to the next round.

 

I'm sorry that's a typo. It should read "Vladamir Radmanavic - Not the best 6-11 Shooter on our team, Matador Defense."

 

What exactly is Vlad good at?

-He can't play D.
-He's supposed to be a "shooter", but only shoots 40%.
-He plays on the perimeter, but doesn't get any assists.
-He's 6-11, but can't rebound or play inside.
-He's really ugly.

I know he "stretches the defense", but wouldn't playing Shard at the 4 do the same thing?

 

He is a burst player, which is what made him such a dangerous sixth man before injuries wrecked his season. There were a lot of instances last season when Vlad got hot and really swung games in our favour. Every time he is on the floor he forces teams to pay attention to him and not just crowd Ray and Rashard, because he will knock down open shots - very much a confidence player.

He is also very inconsistant, which often comes with not starting, and thus his numbers don't reflect what he's capable of.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting 44Thrilla:</div><div class="quote_post">What exactly is Vlad good at?

-He can't play D.
-He's supposed to be a "shooter", but only shoots 40%.
-He plays on the perimeter, but doesn't get any assists.
-He's 6-11, but can't rebound or play inside.
-He's really ugly.

I know he "stretches the defense", but wouldn't playing Shard at the 4 do the same thing?</div>



sure rashard would do the same if he played pf..but then you need another big sf that shoots from the outside and stretches the defense to make that work....see where vlade comes in? Plus whats with all this talk on his defense? I felt he was a better defender then atleast Rashard Lewis last year. And Vlade is not "Supposed" to be ashooter he IS a shooter. Which is why he shoots 40% from the field....

 

Forget Nick, how did Nene end up on that list?

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Casual:</div><div class="quote_post">Forget Nick, how did Nene end up on that list?</div>

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Odde24:</div><div class="quote_post">As for this article, I can take it or leave it. When Cliff Robinson is the second worst defensive forward in the league, your calculator is broken.</div>

See?

 

I haven't see Cliff play regularly for a long time, so for all I know he's remains a great defensive PF simply by reputation.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Coolguy777:</div><div class="quote_post">And Vlade is not "Supposed" to be ashooter he IS a shooter. Which is why he shoots 40% from the field....</div>Wait a second...

Do you actually think that 40% shooting is good for a 6-10 player that only scores 11ppg?

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Casual:</div><div class="quote_post">Forget Nick, how did Nene end up on that list?</div>

Because Denver conceded less points when he was on the floor?

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting 44Thrilla:</div><div class="quote_post">Wait a second...

Do you actually think that 40% shooting is good for a 6-10 player that only scores 11ppg?</div>
11 points from the bench........40% shooting because he takes mid range and 3 point shots. ????????

 

12 points, 41% from the floor and 39% from beyond the arc.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting legendisdope:</div><div class="quote_post">11 points from the bench........40% shooting because he takes mid range and 3 point shots. ????????</div>If that's the case, then every guard and small forward in the league should be shooting 40%.

 

Vlad shoots 39% from downtown, a healthy clip. He took 650 FG attempts, and more than half were treys - hence it brings his overall FG mark down. His FG also took a battering in Feb and March when he was not 100%, after being probably the leading 6th man contender through January.

He may not be the league's most efficient shooter, but will teams leave him open? Don't count on it, he is very much a confidence player. If he hits his first 2-3 shots, he can break a game open.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Sir Desmond:</div><div class="quote_post">Vlad shoots 39% from downtown, a healthy clip. He took 650 FG attempts, and more than half were treys - hence it brings his overall FG mark down. His FG also took a battering in Feb and March when he was not 100%, after being probably the leading 6th man contender through January.

He may not be the league's most efficient shooter, but will teams leave him open? Don't count on it, he is very much a confidence player. If he hits his first 2-3 shots, he can break a game open.</div>At least you've managed to make some sense of it. Though I can't see how a one-dimensional player that shoots threes is that much more important than a one-dimensional player that's the best rebounder in the league.

 

Evans can't play more than 25 minutes per night, nor can he be anywhere near the court at he end of a close game. Vlad can. Evans' role will diminish as Collison gets experience, while Vlad will always be able to play 25-35 minutes a night, regardless of who (realistically) is on the roster.