Interesting article at 82games.com on a simple formula for predicting who'll likely win the MVP. The terms are "Tendex" (a player rating based on individual stats, sort of similar to PER), team wins, games played, improvement over previous years, and various bonuses for team/individual statistical accomplishments. Using the method, it accurately predicted the MVP winner from the last 20 years. If we projected the season up to now to the end of the regular season, here are the leaders: (1) Chauncey Billups (85.9 MVP points) (2) Dirk Nowitzki (81.7) (3) LeBron James (77.8) (4) Steve Nash (77.3) (5) Tim Duncan (75.7) For comparison, Nash had 89.3 and Shaq had 82.5 last season. Actually, Amare and Marion also fared very well (88.5 and 87.7, respectively) and probably one of them would have won if Nash wasn't perceived as the best player on the team. Interesting to note that popular MVP candidate, Kobe Bryant, isn't even in the top 5 according to this rating. People seem to be transfixed on his amazing scoring outbursts and brilliant play overall, but when the voting goes down team success rates very highly.
Wow, that's interesting. How many points does Kobe have anyway? I mean, he can't be that far away. You'd at least think he'd be in the top 10.
The thought of Billups winning MVP honors astounds me. I mean he's a very solid player...but MVP? I'm not at all convinced this team wouldnt fare just as well with a Jason Kidd. I mean he's more than solid, but his ppg is only 18.5 his assists are good but only 8.7 (compared with nash's 11.2 last year). His defence is solid of course. He's got a nice ft and 3point % but his field goal % leaves much to be desired, being a 41% shooter. Dont get me wrong..he's playing great. But MVP is someone the team couldnt replace with anyone. I dont think Nash deserved it last year since a Jason Kidd, Tony Parker, Mike Bibby could of filled in nicely...not AS good but not much behind Nash. Same this year...you put Parker or Bibby on this team and they'll still go to the conferance finals and put on a good show. How far will SA go without Duncan? Cleveland without James? Players like Billups, Amare, Nash, Marion, Wade...thier MVP-ness is a result of the people they play with on the court. Their all great players...but an MVP is supposed to be a player that cant be replaced without serious serious consequences to your success rate. Tony Parker or Jason Kidd on the Detroit Pistons would still be in the conferance finals...almost assuredly the Finals.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting 02civic:</div><div class="quote_post">The thought of Billups winning MVP honors astounds me. I mean he's a very solid player...but MVP? I'm not at all convinced this team wouldnt fare just as well with a Jason Kidd.</div> They bring very different styles to their teams. Kidd excels in an open court game, but Detroit is primarily a half court team. Also, Billups is very good at creating his own shot off the dribble (only 36% of his jumpers assisted), whereas Kidd is more catch and shoot (69% of jumpers assisted). You might be right, but it's tough to say. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">I mean he's more than solid, but his ppg is only 18.5 his assists are good but only 8.7 (compared with nash's 11.2 last year).</div> True, but you should also factor in that Billups is very good at limiting turnovers, and his team plays at a much slower pace (so he'll naturally have less assists). Obviously, Nash is a better passer, but if Nash played in Detroit's system he might struggle to get 10 assists a game while keeping his turnovers as low as Billups as does. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">His defence is solid of course. He's got a nice ft and 3point % but his field goal % leaves much to be desired, being a 41% shooter.</div> That's a misleading stat, though. He shoots a low percentage overall because he takes so many threes. If you look at his effective scoring efficiency (taking into account free throws, threes, and twos), he's one of the most efficient scorers in the entire league. He's ranked 6th in true shooting percentage. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post"> Dont get me wrong..he's playing great. But MVP is someone the team couldnt replace with anyone. I dont think Nash deserved it last year since a Jason Kidd, Tony Parker, Mike Bibby could of filled in nicely...not AS good but not much behind Nash. Same this year...you put Parker or Bibby on this team and they'll still go to the conferance finals and put on a good show. How far will SA go without Duncan? Cleveland without James? Players like Billups, Amare, Nash, Marion, Wade...thier MVP-ness is a result of the people they play with on the court. Their all great players...but an MVP is supposed to be a player that cant be replaced without serious serious consequences to your success rate. </div> You might be right. But we probably need to distinguish between most valuable player and best player. Kobe may very well be the best player in the league, but is he an MVP? At any rate, the purpose of this rating isn't to determine who should be MVP, but rather who's most likely to be MVP, based on historical voting trends. I'd rather give Nowitzki, LeBron, or Nash be the MVP than Billups, personally, but if I had to guess who'd win it I'd have to say the answer is Chauncey.
When kobe scores a lot, the Lakers are not much better than when he doesn't score a lot. Dallas on the other hand are almost unstoppable if Dirk scores a lot. I did the stats on this before.
Many of the names you have mentioned are very worthy....but you forgot one. Where would the Jazz be without Milt Palacio? His stellar numbers, 6.8 ppg, 2.1 rebs, and 3 assists per game have to keep him among the NBA's elite. Don't forget about Milt!
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting The Original:</div><div class="quote_post">Wow, that's interesting. How many points does Kobe have anyway? I mean, he can't be that far away. You'd at least think he'd be in the top 10.</div> Kobe's rating would be: <font face=""Courier New""><font color=""DarkGreen"">28.6 + 42/2 + 79/4 + (42-34)/4 + [-5 + 2 + 1] = 69.35</font></font> Kobe misses a +4 bonus because Iverson isn't 10% less than him in scoring race (35ppg to 33ppg), and the -5 for not having a top-3 conference record also hurts. No MVP in the last 20 years finished less than 3rd in the conference. I projected games played to 79, and Lakers will win 42 games at current pace. Some other possible candidates: <font face=""Courier New""><font color=""DarkGreen"">Shawn Marion 28.8 + 56/2 + 82/4 + [-1] = 76.3 Elton Brand 29.4 + 47/2 + 79/4 + (47-37)/4 + [-5 + 1] = 71.1 Dwyane Wade 28.6 + 52/2 + 79/4 + [-1 + 1] = 74.4</font></font>
can somebody explain the milt palacio jokes cause they don't seem funny at all to me. I never even heard of Milt Palacio til i saw it's the favorite player of some people on here.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting phunDamentalz:</div><div class="quote_post">can somebody explain the milt palacio jokes cause they don't seem funny at all to me. I never even heard of Milt Palacio til i saw it's the favorite player of some people on here.</div> The "joke" is that Milt Palacio isn't actually a good player. Har har.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting vcwannabe15:</div><div class="quote_post">What's Vince Carter's rating?</div> 4.6 oh and -2 for being an asshat
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting durvasa:</div><div class="quote_post">No MVP in the last 20 years finished less than 3rd in the conference. </div> That's a very interesting fact. However, if there'd be one exception, you'd think it'd be the guy who put up the second most points ever scored in an NBA game. That performance had such great historical significance that it'll be hard to overlook Bryant when it comes to the voting.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting 02civic:</div><div class="quote_post">4.6 oh and -2 for being an asshat</div> No wonder you hate Vince your a damn Raptors fan.
^^Wow another Raptors fan with stupid comments about the man who made Toronto what they are today. You guys would never be in the playoffs without him.
When I think of Billups, I think of a very good role player. He is very good, and is the leader of the best team in the NBA, but for some reason I don't think of him as an MVP. In my opinion if you took him out of the equation, the Pistons would not be at complete lost like other teams would be without their MVP candidates.
I'm going with Kobe. Like VC said, the game Kobe played had a lot of historical signifficance to it. Just think of the name. Most valuable player. Take Duncan, Billups, or Nash off their respective teams, I think they would be pretty decent. Take Kobe off the Lakers I think they would be one of the worst teams in the league.
82games.com or not, I truly believe Steve Nash deserves the award for how he has lead this Suns team. Second on my list would be Kobe because if you took him out of the equation, the Lakers would probably be the Bobcats by now.
