Gotta continue to spread the word on Chuck Hayes. Maybe JVG is listening. In this discussion on undrafted rookies this season from stat-guy/NBA anayst Kevin Pelton, he refers to Hayes as his "favorite undrafted success story this season." I know it will never happen, but I wish Van Gundy would just consider starting Hayes and give him maybe 25-30 minutes a game. We always seem to play better with him on the court. I used the numbers at 82games.com and ESPN.com to calculate exactly what his +/- has been since he joined the team on January 18th (his first game). I didn't want to possibly inflate his +/- numbers by considering early season games before he came when we were really struggling with injuries. Here are the results, not including the recent Philadelphia game: <font face=""Courier New""><font color=""DarkGreen""><u>Hayes on the court</u> Points scored: 92.98 points per 48min Points allowed: 81.85 points per 48min +11.13 points/48min <u>Hayes off the court (since 1/18)</u> Points scored: 92.45 points per 48min Points allowed: 95.06 points per 48min -2.61 points/48min <u>Overall (since 1/18)</u> Points scored: 92.61 points per 48min Points allowed: 91.14 points per 48min +1.47 points/48min (record: 13-8) <u>Before January 18th</u> Points scored: 88.07 points per 48min Points allowed: 90.80 points per 48min -2.73 points/48min (record: 12-24) </font></font> These results are quite interesting, and demonstrate just how much Chuck Hayes has contributed to the team. Before Hayes arrived we were a struggling team with a 12-24 record. Our point differential (per 48 minutes) was -2.73. In the games since January 18th, we have a respectable 13-8 record, with a +1.48 point differential. Most would contribute this change to Yao's improved play, and general improving health. But look closely at our point differential since January 18th when Chuck Hayes is off the court. It's almost identical to where we were early in the season when we were struggling with injuries! The key difference is that we've played so well when Hayes has been on the court since his arrival, that overall our point differential is positive -- and consequentially we have a good win-loss record. On defense, we're limiting opponents to nearly 14 less points per 48 minutes with Hayes on the court, since he joined the team. That's unbelievably impressive. And those who claim Chuck Hayes is only good for defense and is an offensive liability, observe that we have actually scored at a slightly higher rate when Hayes has been on the court. He doesn't lose possessions for the team by missing a lot of jumpers (like Juwan) or turning the ball over (like Swift). And he offensive rebounds the ball and gets to the line. He also does a good job of making himself available under the basket when Yao or McGrady are double teamed.
<font size=""4"">Comparing Juwan Howard's impact, relative to Chuck Hayes (as of 3/2/06)</font> <font color="DarkGreen"><font face="Courier New"> <u>Juwan Howard on the court (1762 minutes)</u> Rockets score: 87.83 points per 48min Opponents score: 93.00 points per 48min -5.17 points per 48min <u>Juwan Howard off the court (1041 minutes)</u> Rockets score: 94.02 points per 48min Opponents score: 88.71 points per 48min +5.31 points per 48min</font> </font> So we've been roughly 10 points/48min better when Howard hasn't been on the court, versus when he has been on the court. But this includes numbers for the entire season, and Howard had to play a lot of minutes early on without Yao and McGrady. So, to be fair, we should only compare the +/- of both players since 1/18. While still tedious to do, we can use the information at Popcornmachine.net to help figure this out. So, since 1/18: <font color="DarkGreen"><font face="Courier New"><u>Juwan Howard on court (682 minutes )</u> -4.36 points/48min <u>Chuck Hayes on court (316 minutes)</u> +10.63 points/48min </font></font> Furthermore, we can look at how many games we were a net positive with Howard (or Hayes) on the court, how many games we were a net negative with them on the court, and how many games the net differential was 0. This is like an individual win-loss record, since a player can't be blamed for how the team being outscored when he's off the court. <font color="DarkGreen"><font face="Courier New"> Juwan Howard: positive in 8 games, negative in 10 games, draw in 2 games Chuck Hayes: positive in 14 games, negative in 5 games, draw in 1 game </font></font> Basically, since 1/18, we've been a sub-500 team with Howard, and a very good team with Hayes. And yet, Howard is playing twice as many minutes. Howard is a more skilled scorer and passer. This is quite obvious. But skill doesn't necessarily translate to positive impact on the offensive end. There are other intangibles (setting picks, moving without the ball, running the court) that can also significantly help offenses which Chuck Hayes excels at. And the numbers show that as a team we have been no worse off offensively (in terms of points scored per possession) with Hayes than without him. We are scoring 107 points per 100 possessions with Hayes on the court. Conversely, we score only 100.4 points per 100 possession with Howard on the court. Relative to the rest of the league, we would be ranked 16/30 in offensive efficiency with Chuck Hayes, but dead last (30/30) with Howard. Now, let's look at their individual stats (per 48 minutes). Again, I'm only concerned with games since 1/18. <font color="DarkGreen"><font face="Courier New"> <u>Juwan Howard (since 1/18)</u> 32.4 minutes per game 18.7 points/48min 2.9 off rebs/48min 6.6 def rebs/48min 3.2 assists/48min 2.5 turnovers/48min 1.4 steals/48min 0.4 blocks/48min 47.0 fg% (7.9 / 16.8) 86.3% ft% (2.9 / 3.3) <u>Chuck Hayes</u> 15.8 minutes per game 14.6 points/48min 5.5 off rebs/48min 10.9 def rebs/48min 1.1 assists/48min 0.9 turnovers/48min 2.0 steals/48min 1.2 blocks/48min 53.4 fg% (5.8 / 10.8) 71.4 ft% (3.0 / 4.3)</font></font> Hayes is a far better rebounder on both ends, doesn't turn the ball over, gets more blocks and steals, and is a more efficient scorer. Howard scores more points as a consequences of taking more shots, he gets more assists, and he shoots better from the line (though he doesn't get there as often, despite having more touches). If we wanted to measure their value through these individual stats, I think Hayes still has a significant edge. But, more importantly, the team flat out plays better with Hayes since he came to the club than Howard. I think the evidence is overwhelming.
JVG likes the way howard spreads the D, and lettin Yao post. My opinion is thats all wrong if Hayes was in the game he would be the main rebounder, allowin Yao to take more shots facing the basket. I dont know why JVG hasnt tried this, but maybe if Juwan retires after this year Hayes can start. Until then i dont think its going to happen even though it should
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting fitch4delk00:</div><div class="quote_post">JVG likes the way howard spreads the D, and lettin Yao post. My opinion is thats all wrong if Hayes was in the game he would be the main rebounder, allowin Yao to take more shots facing the basket. I dont know why JVG hasnt tried this, but maybe if Juwan retires after this year Hayes can start. Until then i dont think its going to happen even though it should</div> http://www.82games.com/0506/0506HOUP.HTM Scroll to the bottom, and check out Yao's stats (per 40 minutes) with Hayes on the floor. Granted, it's only 48 minutes of data, but Yao has played amazingly well with him.
Yea nice stats, I also Noticed last night once Bogans and Hayes went out, and they brought in there SL they went on the drought that ultimately lost the game. I still dont understand why howard is starting or wesly. I think Wesly would be a good spark off the bench. If the Sl was Alston/Bogans/McGrady/Hayes/Ming I think they would be better on offense and defense. Basically because howard has no defense, and wesly is to old to guard the faster sg's.
lotsa numbers I too like Hayes a LOT, every time I see him come up on the stat sheet things start to look good again (like in the 76ers game!) He does better work than both Howard and Swift - he rebounds AND shoots(and makes) the layup. Question - How is Hayes' defense? I haven't really paid attention to it.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting kramer_k:</div><div class="quote_post"> lotsa numbers I too like Hayes a LOT, every time I see him come up on the stat sheet things start to look good again (like in the 76ers game!) He does better work than both Howard and Swift - he rebounds AND shoots(and makes) the layup. Question - How is Hayes' defense? I haven't really paid attention to it.</div> His defense is the best thing about him. He'll make mistakes now and then as far as covering for Yao in pick and roll situations or in transition (as he's new, this is to be expected), but overall he's a very good defensive player.
Yes he played well on defense at kentucky the whole 4 years i watched him. Yet I live in kentucky so i havent gotten to c him play, except 4 the espn/tnt games. He should be a good defender, and even better with more time he gets.
JVG plays Juwan more because he named him as one of the 2 Rockets players who plays with intensity all the time. <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">"We all know on our team that the only guys who do that are Ryan Bowen and Juwan ( Howard), and that's it. We get no inspirational play otherwise. It may be sound play, it may be good play, but it's nothing inspiring as far as hard play. It seems as if some of our guys are uninspirable."</div> It's a bonus that Juwan can score on the offensive end as well. Not everything can be quantified with statistics.
Nice stat analysis, durvasa. Really mind-boggling when you see how well the Rockets do with Hayes on the court. As for who should start, I think Howard still will, but Hayes should at least get 20 minutes a night. Swift shouldn't get more than 10, and Hayes should play more at power forward than center. One thing I do like about Howard this season is his intensity and no-BS attitude. He's playing with more passion this year, and has become quite the dirty player/enforcer on the team, what with his shove of the ball into Mike James' face, or his dirty elbow in another game I don't remember too well. He's the only guy who can provide some toughness with Sura out.
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting johnny33:</div><div class="quote_post"> It's a bonus that Juwan can score on the offensive end as well. Not everything can be quantified with statistics.</div> Obviously, Van Gundy is seeing something in Juwan that I don't see. I mean, he seems like a great person and I'm sure he has a wonderful work ethic. But how does that "intensity" really translate on the court? Like you say, statistics don't show it. Including the most important stats - wins and losses. I hate to say it, but is it just bad luck that Juwan Howard has been on losing teams pretty much throughout his career?
The thing is imo they dont need an offensive PF. They need a defensive one something Juwan lacks. Juwan is a good offensive player, but his defense is horrible
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting fitch4delk00:</div><div class="quote_post">The thing is imo they dont need an offensive PF. They need a defensive one something Juwan lacks. Juwan is a good offensive player, but his defense is horrible</div> Van Gundy likes his defense, and apparently he's pouring over the video tapes. Maybe there's some subtle things he's doing well that the casual fan doesn't see. His weaknesses are obvious: - poor lateral quickness for stopping quick PFs facing the basket - zero presence as a shot blocker, whether it's contesting his own man or in help defense - weak defensive rebounder - doesn't have quick hands (like a Chuck Hayes, say) for deflecting balls and generating steals (whether they be credited to himself or a teammate) Strengths: - alert in making the proper rotations and trying to cover for teammates (particularly Yao) - decent post defender - will draw the charge now and then - uh, he looks like he's playing hard?
chuck is good. he's been ascenting these days. he's acting tough and fast and passionate. he's in a good physical situation, as chuck isn't chuncky Concerning about Howard, he's solid on defensive end, and a stable jumper in his range. Bad thing is he's not as active as Hayes, and has been on his downhill years ago.
IT seems that Van Gundy is not very impressed by the play of Chuck Hayes. He's barely gotten any significant time the last few games to make room for Swift. Apparently, Van Gundy think Howard and Swift bring more to the team than Hayes, and I just can't figure it out. He puts up good numbers per minute, and more importantly the team usually plays much better with him in the lineup. Consider the recent quote from the Chronicle: <div class="quote_poster">Quoting Chronicle:</div><div class="quote_post"> "You would have to play him ahead of bigs that are better than him right now," coach Jeff Van Gundy said of Lampe's status. "You could play him ahead of Chuck (Hayes), I guess, but I don't think to experiment for the sake of experimentation would be prudent right now." </div> So, apparently he thinks Howard and Swift are "better" than Lampe, but Chuck Hayes isn't? In other words, Hayes is not as good a player as Howard and Swift. Even though all the statistical evidence (above) shows just the opposite. This is frustrating.
I hope the team trades him, or Van Gundy gets fired. Everytime I watch Hayes he does well, and the team does well. Maybe the gm will now see that Van Gundy cant coach this team, and get rid fo him along with his best friend Swift. Maybe he could send them in a package deal to the knicks 4 larry brown, lol.
larry brown's system won't get better in Houston. Larry Brown is a coach that likes passing and a team based offense while our offense is surrounded with two superstars that need to dominate the ball for us to win. Maybe defensively, but offensivley it is a nightmare.
umm, i think ur forgetting when he coached in phila. One player dominated the ball, and they won. They have pieces to become a great defensive team. All they need is the coach to point them in the direction. I was just sayin that as a joke, but Brown would be a better fit than van gundy
