Bubble Predictions

Predict your bubble teams in here. These are mine -

<font color=""Navy""><u>ACC</u></font>
Florida State - In - Outside of a game against Florida, their nonconference schedule was a joke. However, their win over Duke this Wednesday will probably put them in, because historically, the selection committee loves teams that finish strong. A win in their last game of the season over Miami and a run in the ACC Tournament should send them in.
Maryland - Out - A 7-8 ACC record won't cut it this season, especially with their biggest non-conference win coming agaisnt fellow bubble team Arkansas.

Projected Number of At-Large Bids - 5 <font size=""1"">(Boston College, Duke, Florida St., North Carolina, North Carolina St.)</font>

<font color=""navy""><u>Big East</u></font>
Cincinnati - Out - If the tournament started today, I'd have Cincinnati out, but a win over West Virginia tomorrow and a run in the Big East tournament would probably give the committee a reason to put them in. They've got a top five schedule, but most of their success was in nonconference play. The Big East has eaten them alive, and conference success plays a crucial role in the selection process.
Marquette - In - Like a lot of Big East teams, their nonconference schedule left a lot to be desired. However, their Big East record is probably enough to get them in at 9-7. The win over UConn and the recent wins over Georgetown and Pitt don't hurt either.
Seton Hall - Out - For a while there it looked like Seton Hall was getting in, but they've been on a skid lately, losing to Notre Dame, DePaul, and St. John's, all of whom are non-tournament teams. They've also got a lot of bad losses from earlier in the year, like Rutgers, Northwestern, Richmond, and an absolutely humiliating 53 point loss to Duke.
Syracuse - Out - Their RPI is really nice, but last night's blowout loss to DePaul could have sealed the deal for them. The Big East is probably the best conference in America because of it's size, but a 7-9 conference record (assuming they lose to 'Nova) is pathetic in any conference, especially with the cupcake nonconference schedule that Syracuse played. The 2-8 record against RPI top 50 teams doesn't exactly help their situation either.

Projected Number of At-Large Bids - 6 <font size=""1"">(Connecticut, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia)</font>

<font color=""navy""><u>Big Ten</u></font>
Indiana - In - I'll keep them in for now, but a loss at Michigan this weekend would probably knock them out. That game is really life or death for them. They've got a nice resume overall and a decent RPI, but everyone knows the issues they've had involving D.J. White and Mike Davis, and that could be one of the big things that keeps them out. Still, you have to think that with as much legacy as this school has and as much money that is out there for the NCAA to make off of putting them in the tournament, they'll be playing in March. Not to mention that they have more quality wins than any other team on the bubble.
Michigan - In - I would personally look at the Wolverines as a lock, but I know the selection committee has a different perspective. Some experts will tell you that they're out if they lose to Indiana this weekend, but I think they can lose that and still make it. They've beaten some of the Big 10's top teams, like Michigan State, Illinois, and Wisconsin, and they went 10-1 in non-conference play. That resume is good enough for me.

Projected Number of At-Large Bids - 7 <font size="1">(Illinois, Indian, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St., Ohio St., Wisconsin)</font>

<font color=""navy""><u>Big Twelve</u></font>
Colorado - Out - Their record is nice, but that's because their nonconference schedule was a joke. Out of all the bubble teams, it was actually probably the weakest. They didn't peak at the right time either. They're 3-5 in their last eight games, including ugly losses to Nebraska and Kansas State. Aside from their record and the one win over a ranked team on their resume (#19 Oklahoma), they don't even look like much of a bubble team.
Texas A&M - In - Like Colorado, the Aggies didn't play anyone in non-conference play. However, unlike Colorado, they've peaked at the right time, going undefeated in their last six games, and most importantly, they beat Texas. Like I've been saying throughout this post, the committee likes late season success, and the Aggies are one of the hottest teams in the NCAA right now.

Projected Number of At-Large Bids - 4 <font size=""1"">(Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M)</font>

<font color=""navy""><u>Missouri Valley</u></font>
Bradley - In - Most experts are sleeping on Bradley's potential to make the tournament, but you have to look beyond their record and RPI (although both are solid). What will get them in is what they've done lately, winning their last six games. It also helps them that their go-to-guy, potential NBA lottery pick Patrick O'Bryant, wasn't with the team for the first half of the season, so all of their struggles and losses before his return can be looked at as more or less a wash. My head tells me that the committee will probably overlook them for some high-major school like Kentucky or California, but in a perfect world, Bradley would be dancing in March.
Creighton - In - They've been one of the most consistent teams in the NCAA this season and has finished the season with a tournament worthy record. They had a few bad losses at the beginning of the season, but they've managed to cancel those out with wins over George Mason, Wichita State, and Norhern Iowa (twice). They also finished third in the MVC, about the equivalent to finishing 3rd in a major conference like the Big 12 or SEC.
Missouri State - In - Nothing on their resume really stands out, but they still have the #18 RPI, and the selection committee left out a team with a top 20 RPI.
Northern Iowa - In - They've lost four out of their last five, but with their entire body of work being so impressive, that fact can be overlooked. They're #27 in the RPI, and their resume includes wins over LSU and Iowa, so I really like their chances of getting in.
Southern Illinois - Out - Southern Illinois didn't really play anyone noteworthy before conference action, but with the strength of the MVC this year, they were able to get away with that and still have a top 50 strength of schedule. A lot of weight will probably be put onto the conference tournament for Southern Illinois, because although their last regular season game of the year was a win over Northern Iowa, they were 2-5 in the seven games they played beforehand. Most likely the Salukis are outside looking in though.

Projected Number of At-Large Bids - 5 <font size=""1"">(Bradley, Creighton, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State)</font>

<font color=""navy""><u>Pac-10</u></font>
Arizona - In - A win over Washington in their last regular season game of the year would probably lock the Wildcats a bid, but I don't think it's absolutely necessary. They played a great non-conference schedule and have a strong RPI, so they should make it.
California - Out - They looked like a lock right up until they played back to back games against Washington and UCLA. Usually an 11-6 record in Pac-10 play would assure you a bid as well, but this season there are a few mid-major conferences who rival the Pac-10, so that record just doesn't have the same affect it used to, especially considering that Cal is on the fringe of falling out of the top 60 in the RPI (currently sitting right at #60). A run to the finals of the Pac-10 tournament or at least an impressive showing could put them in, but with their 1-3 slide in their last four games, they're probably looking in from the outside at this point.
Stanford - Out - They probably needed to beat Arizona or Washington last week to still be a serious contender, but there's still hope for Stanford if they can beat UCLA tomorrow and make a run to the Pac-10 finals.

Projected Number of At-Large Bids - 3 <font size=""1"">(Arizona, UCLA, Washington)</font>

<font color=""navy""><u>SEC</u></font>
Alabama - In - I personally think their resume is horrible, with losses against teams like Temple, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Notre Dame, as well as a 17-10 record. They've beaten Tennessee and Florida recently though, two teams who have mediocre talent but are rated by most of America as top 15 teams, so I have to feel like the selection committee will put them in there, even despite the poor resume and the absence of Chuck Davis.
Arkansas - In - Arkansas doesn't have as good of an RPI as some of the teams that I said were out, but they've played a good schedule and have come on strong lately with wins over Florida, Alabama, and most recently, Tenneesse.
Kentucky - Out - Their RPI is nice, but I can't really figure that one out. Their resume is awful. They beat West Virginia and Tennessee, but they also lost to Indiana and Kansas by a combined 55 points. They'll probably need to beat Florida on Sunday to keep their hopes alive.
Vanderbilt - Out - They had a decent non-conference schedule and came out of it with a win over Georgetown, but they've only been 7-8 in conference play, so it'll probably take a run to the SEC title game for Vanderbilt to have a shot at making the tournament.

Projected Number of At-Large Bids - 5 <font size=""1"">(Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, LSU, Tennessee)</font>

<font color=""Navy""><u>Mid-Majors</u></font>
Air Force - In - This was probably one of the hardest ones to call. Their schedule is horrible (even though they played Washington and Miami), but their record is great, and they're probably the best team in the NCAA at running the 'Princeton Offense', so I gave them the nod.
Hofstra - Out - They're one of only about fifteen teams in the NCAA with five or less losses, but most bubble teams could have pulled that off with their schedule (#181).
NC Wilmington - Out - Aside from splitting the season series with conference rivals George Mason and Hofstra, NC Wilmington's schedule lacks any marquee wins. I can't really figure out why they're considered a bubble team with teams like Arizona and Michigan.
San Diego St. - Out - The Aztecs did a lot of damage to their resume in non-conference play by going 7-5 with a relatively weak schedule. The MWC has historically been one of the top mid-major conferences, but with the departure of players like Bogut and Granger, it's had a down year, so the fact that San Diego St. won the regular season title probably won't get them the bid like it would have in previous season.

Projected Number of At-Large Bids - 8 <font size=""1"">(Air Force, Bucknell, George Mason, George Washington, Gonzaga, Memphis, Nevada, UAB)</font>

Projected At-Large Bid Conference Comparison:

ACC - 5
Big East - 6
Big 10 - 7
Big 12 - 4
MVC - 5
Pac-10 - 3
SEC - 5

 

Seton Hall is now in after beating Pitt. on the road.

And you have Hofstra as Out, but then you have them in the At Large bids as in?

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting STCBBall3:</div><div class="quote_post">Seton Hall is now in after beating Pitt. on the road.

And you have Hofstra as Out, but then you have them in the At Large bids as in?</div>

If Seton Hall loses their first Big East tournament game, I'd really think twice about putting them in, but as of now, they definitely look like they're headed dancing.

The Hofstra thing was a typo. It happens...

 

I say Kentucky is in. They beat West Virginia and Tennessee and 4 of their losses were to Florida, Tennessee, Kansas, and Indiana(all quality opponents). They will likely beat the Gators tomorrow to solidify their position as in. I think they need 1 win to get to 20 wins to be in.

 

I received a harsh dose of reality last night watching ESPN, where Digger Phelps (tool) said that Cincy, Seton Hall and Syracuse all deserved to be in, and Indiana should be out. That's when I rememberd that the Big East will always win out over the Big 10 because of the rampant east coast bias that exists in college basketball.

I honestly don't think that FSU deserves to be in; they beat Duke, and NO ONE else. They need at least one win, probably two in the ACC tourney for me to say they're in. Ditto for Texas A&M/Colorado, they have one nice win each, and nothing non-conference, just an inflated record from playing against an amazingly mediocre Big 12. I think Cal should still be in, I bet they do well in the Pac 10 tourney.

 

I think is Cincy wins today vs. West Virginia they are in. They have quality wins over LSU and Syracuse and play a very hard schedule including 3 teams in the top 5 Memphis, Vilanova, and UCONN.

 

While I agree that Kentucky has no business getting into the tournament, you know that the committee will put them in just because they're Kentucky. They have won four of their past five games, and if they can win tomorrow's game against Florida, I think they're a lock(20 wins should get you win).

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting GatorsowntheSEC:</div><div class="quote_post">I say Kentucky is in. They beat West Virginia and Tennessee and 4 of their losses were to Florida, Tennessee, Kansas, and Indiana(all quality opponents). They will likely beat the Gators tomorrow to solidify their position as in. I think they need 1 win to get to 20 wins to be in.</div>

How can you bring up the fact that they lost to Kansas and Indiana as positives? They lost to them by a combined 55 points! This team has been beaten down by just about every quality team they've played, and that's shown by the fact that their record against the RPI top 50 is an abysmal 3-8. If the committee puts them in over teams like Bradley and Northern Iowa, it'll be 100% based on bias and greed, wanting to sell out arenas with UK fans, because their resume is not tournament worthy.