RealGM MockDraft

RealGM has posted their MockDraft, shows strengths and weaknesses of the top 10 players.

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RealGM Mock Draft, Version 1.01
Authored by J.T. Magee
It's baaaaack!

It is finally Mock Draft season here at RealGM, arriving in plenty of time for the 2006 edition of David Stern's Face Time, or as everyone except for myself refers to it, the 2006 NBA Draft. Sure, the NFL Draft is around the corner, but everyone knows Reggie Bush is going #1. So who cares? This is the time where the NBA Draft starts to swing into action. Every fan of a Lottery team wants to know whom they will be drafting. And this list will show is likely to be picked by those teams. With recent trades that have gone down that have affected the draft, I will discuss these moved picks in the future, as well as the mock draft itself. Let's get into it, shall we?

Some players have risen to the occasion, like LSU's Tyrus Thomas, while some players failed to establish themselves against worthy opponents, like Pittsburgh's Aaron Gray, who will most likely stay one more year.


In this version, 1.01, I will cover the Top 10 players, based on how they have faired this season. Versions 1.02 and 1.03 will talk about the players in the 11-20 range and the players in the 21-30 range respectively.

There is no lottery factored in, so teams that are listed in the order you are seeing are only based on their record at the time of this release. Anything can change between now and the draft. That's what so great about it. For now, here's RealGM's Mock Draft, v1.01.

1. Portland Trailblazers

Tyrus Thomas, SF/PF, LSU, Freshman, 19 years old, 6'9, 215.

Strengths:

As a redshirt freshman that wasnt highly recruited out of high school, Thomas was off most scouts radar at the beginning of the season. Word began spreading soon though and after seeing some nice stat lines from him and watching the UCONN-LSU game earlier in the year, I saw a kid who has the talent to be a dominant force on defense in the NBA.

Rudy Gay and Rodney Carney are the only other prospects that can match Thomas' athleticism in this draft. James White is an exception, as well. But Thomas has shown, on both offense and defense, that he can play above the rim, something coveted by today's NBA. Whether it be a rebound, alley-oop or block, Thomas can get up for it with his very long arms and quick jump. He is expected to have at least a seven-foot wingspan when he is finally officially measured. He never lets his feet set in concrete and it shows on his blocks.

Defensively, he has some of the best timing I've seen out of someone his age. Josh Smith of the Hawks can also be mentioned here, but as far as college standards go, Thomas stands out. On his post defense, Thomas waits for his man to make a move. He doesn't even budge on pump fakes, something everyone tends to be baited by. Thomas holds his ground and uses his long arms and timing to record the block.

One feat many shot blockers rarely do these days is keep the ball in play. Almost every block I saw Thomas record this year, he managed to keep in play. It makes it easier for his guards to run the break, instead of sending it out of bounds and giving the offense a chance to regroup and try again.

Because of his shot blocking, Thomas has built the fear in his opponents to alter shots as well. In the Sweet 16 game against Duke, many of the guards had an extremely hard time getting any floater or lay-up in. He makes sure that if he doesn't block it, he alters it to the point where the guard has to have the precise angle for the shot to be made. JJ Redick struggled to get some of his lay ups in because of Thomas presence.

Although Thomas is fairly small for a power forward when it comes to height and build, he makes up for it with quick feet in the post and of course his athleticism. Case in point: the Elite 8 game against LaMarcus Aldridge. Aldridge stood around 3 inches above Thomas, yet shot 2-14 from the floor. Aldridge was also guarded by Glen Davis (who made the wise choice and will stay in college), but it was mostly Thomas who made life hard on him, forcing Aldridge into shots he normally would not take. Thomas biggest statement in that game was that he can play against bigger players. And he isnt fully developed yet, thats what is scary.

Thomas is a transition player. He can play in a controlled offense, but looks like he's the type of power forward who can flourish in a free flowing and fast-paced offense. That may be just for now, though. Regardless, Thomas has shown he can get up and down the floor quickly, either following up a missed lay-up or finishing an alley-oop.

One stat that every single NBA team loves: rebounding. No matter how decent or poor of a player you are, if you can show that you can rebound and have a knack for being the first one to the ball, you can make a decent career in the NBA. Thomas is a rebounder. In his five NCAA tournament games, he averaged 8.6 rebounds per contest in 24.2 minutes. Stretch that out to 40 minutes, the max and he would have pulled down, based on that average, 13.8 rebounds. Which is almost one more than what he had against Aldridge and Texas in the Elite 8 game.

On offense, he has shown that he has a decent midrange jumper right now. Most kids that come out, who are as athletic as him, don't have a jump shot and have to work extremely hard on it. Thomas looks comfortable shooting around 15 feet. Even if it doesn't fall for him, he has shown he's willing to shoot continuously from that range. His form isnt textbook, but he jumps high enough and knows that if he follows through, it has a good chance of going in.

The majority of his points during his first few seasons will clearly come at the rim.

Weaknesses:

Oh, baby, the boy is raw. Oh baby the boy is raw. Oh, baby the boy is rawwwww. Oh baby the boy is rawwwww, eh.

In giving a shout out to the departed ODB, this tweaked line from Shimmy Shimmy Ya sums it up: Thomas is raw. He is definitely a couple of years away from becoming a consistent contributor for an NBA team. He has the tools to become a dominant force on D, but he is a few years away from becoming an offensive threat.

To start off, he doesn't have the low-post game that someone like Aldridge or even Shelden Williams have. Williams at least has three years on him, but Aldridge is the same age and has an additional season of college ball under his belt. Thomas has shown he's a fast learner throughout the season, but one major area that NBA teams want their bigs to have is a decent post-up game. Thomas is still a few years away from having that. Who knows, maybe he's been working on that part of his game nonstop since college basketball ended, but from his in-game showing, he lacks a go-to post game.

Besides the fact that he is raw, one major issue every NBA team looks at with athletic players like him is his health. He redshirted because of an injured neck. I don't know the extent of the injury, so he could have been out of action for just one week. He was smart and redshirted though. It's not the neck I'm worried about. It's his knees. When I see him play, I immediately am reminded of Antonio McDyess.

McDyess was an athletic freak coming out of Alabama and was a dominant player on both sides of the court. But knee problems took away his athleticism and he missed around 4 years of full basketball. He is a contributor off the bench for Detroit, so not all was lost. He even had a 26 and 14 game in Rasheed Wallace's absence. McDyess is still playing, but most of his game was based off athleticism, just like Thomas' is. He could end up being the type of player McDyess could've become, but at the same time, his career may end up going down that same path.

Overview:

Thomas came out of virtually nowhere, just like most of this year's draft crop. He showed he is a dominant player, on defense and every NBA team loves guys that have tremendous upside, especially power forwards, a position where there is a dearth of quality players. Thomas has a lot of potential and is still young enough to become a great power forward in the NBA. In ten years, Thomas has the potential to put up Brand-like numbers. Maybe not in the same fashion, but those numbers look just as good, no matter how they are tallied.

2. Charlotte Bobcats

LaMarcus Aldridge, PF/C, Texas, Sophomore, 6'10, 245 pounds.

Strengths:

Aldridge has a very solid post-up game and a nice face-up game, which lead many. He can shoot his turnaround jumper over anyone in the post due to his long arms and great timing for when to release the ball. He has shown good rebounding instincts, averaging almost ten per game and grabbing over ten in 20 of his 37 games.

His rebounding dipped since the beginning of the season, but he has shown that he can rebound with bigger players, although almost none come quite as big as him on the college court. He has performed very well on the offensive glass, as well. He gets himself in great position for any offensive rebound. If he's out of position, he uses his extremely long arms to tip boards away that normal 7-footer would have trouble reaching if they were in his position. For the season, he averaged 3.48 offensive rebounds per contest.

The one part of his game that really stands out is his running ability. He can flat out run. It's not like a Phoenix Suns -style run, but he would thrive in that system backing up Amare Stoudemire and playing alongside him and Boris Diaw. The Suns probably won't trade up to get him, but he can flourish in that type of system. Teams are foaming at the mouth due to this because there has not been a power forward/center that can get up and down the court like Aldridge in many years.

Because he can run, he has the chance to become a dominant center with the post game of a power forward. Hes right around seven feet and I wouldnt be surprised if he ends up around that. When he first comes out, he will most likely play power forward, but in five years, he can turn himself into a bona fide center. Think Steven Hunter with a solid post up game and two good knees.

On defense, he can hold his ground, even though he lost over 20 pounds compared to last season. In fact, he barely played at all last season, suffering a hip injury that knocked him out after playing 16 games. This year, he has come on strong in all aspects of his game and shown a lot of potential because he is simply dominating the college game in his first year and a half.

Weaknesses:

Aldridge has shown a lot, but just like every player, comes with weaknesses. For starters, his injury last season. He has fully recovered from his hip injury, but this is a big concern because a hip is irreplaceable. If he gets undercut and lands on it, it could end his career. It's unlikely, but teams are going to take into account the health of his hip. Because of that injury, he's essentially a freshman. He has shown a lot of potential, but he hasn't had a lot of game time compared to others in his class because of the injury.

He has shown a lot of quickness with his lost weight, but at roughly 245, he is a big underweight for being a power forward/center. Thicker and stronger players have pushed him around. Case in point: Shelden Williams. When their respective teams went head-to-head on December 10th, Aldridge was held to just six rebounds. It was the second lowest total for him up to that point in the season. Granted, Duke shot 53% in that game and Williams himself got only six rebounds, but Aldridge was put under the spotlight in that game.

If he could only get six in a collegiate game against a smaller but stronger player like Williams, what would happen if he were guarding Elton Brand, Reggie Evans or Michael Sweetney? Out of these three, only Brand is a solidified stud, but all three are relatively undersized at the 4 and solid rebounders who can establish position against anyone. Aldridge is a good three inches taller than all of those players, but Williams isn't that much bigger than them. On top of that, Aldridge isn't even the leading rebounder on his team. That distinction belongs to P.J. Tucker, who averaged 9.4 rebounds.

At times, he reminds me of Zach Randolph of the Trailblazers. They are two different players, but both have shown that they aren't consistently aggressive on the block. Randolph has flat out been lazy at times, not even trying to establish position down low, instead letting his man push him out to 15-20 feet away from the hoop. Aldridge isn't lazy like that, but he isn't demanding the ball down low. Tucker and Daniel Gibson have not helped, so all of this can't be put on all of his shoulders. What can be put on his shoulders is that because of this, he will allow them to huck up three point shots when those shots aren't within Texas' offense.

Overview:

Aldridge has shown a lot of potential this year for the Longhorns. He will most likely be a Top 5 pick unless he decides to stay in school. He is the type of 4/5 teams love to build around. Only time will tell, but his future in the NBA is bright due to great athleticism, post game and his running ability.

3. Chicago Bulls (via NY Knicks)

Andrea Bargnani, SF/PF, Benetton Treviso, 20 years old, 7'0, 225 pounds.

Strengths:

Bargnani is considered the top International player in this year's draft. At 7 feet, he has the size, to be an immediate contributor and impact player. His size has helped him stand out in most areas of his game.

He has one of the purest shots in this year's draft. If he were behind anyone, based on their shot, it would be Adam Morrison and J.J. Redick. He has great touch on his shot from everywhere on the court. He already has NBA 3-point range but doesn't show it off enough for Benneton Treviso. He can get it off against any defender and has done so. Because of his fundamentals and size, shooting from 23+ feet isnt a problem.

Because of his size, most players have played him closer than normal, afraid that he would shoot over him. He uses this to his advantage, driving past his opponent and is a surprisingly good finisher. His strength does play a part in how he finishes, but he has sown he can get past most of the people that are guarding him.

For a seven footer, only Dirk Nowitzki rivals his handle. He can drive both right and left, but looks more comfortable driving right. He can pull up after one dribble and shoot on a dime, making it very hard for his defender to try and figure out how to guard him.

Right now, he is mostly a perimeter player but has shown that he's willing to mix it up down low. Results are so-so, but most big Europeans have stayed away from contact coming into the league. Bargnani, even though he's more comfortable on the wing, has a decent hook shot and fade away jumper. He has shown hes willing to play down low immediately.

Defense tends to be an area that lacks for Europeans, whether it is because of lateral speed or strength, Bargnani is one of the few exceptions. He has very nice instincts off the ball, specifically on weak side blocks. He can still play near his man enough so there can't be any sort of drive and dish. He uses this to his advantage, coming out of nowhere to block an opposing guard's lay-up. He gets off the floor fairly quick and makes sure that if he doesn't block it, he alters it.

Weaknesses:

Just like most Europeans, his muscle mass is a problem. When he does play in the post, much smaller players can push him off the block. Some may be stronger than him, but he didn't show that he could consistently hold his ground in the post. The weights can always be hit, so this won't be a big problem in the future, but it will be an immediate problem.

Because he has mixed results in the low-post, he stays on the perimeter a lot. It's not uncommon, but he sometimes looks hesitant to go down low. He will eventually develop a low-post game, but for now, it will be a problem if the team that drafts him doesn't create many plays for him on the wing.

Although Bargnani plays relatively well when he's anticipating a weak side drive, he sometimes plays off his man way too much. It either leads to offensive rebounds or made 3 pointers from the corner. Because of this, Bargnani can't recover in time to either alter the shot or lay up. He has shown he can block shots, but he will get beat if he plays off his man three to four feet like he has against some teams in Europe.

On his drives, his strength has played a big part in how he finishes. There have been some plays where he takes the contact, but gets bounced and throws up a shot. Sometimes it goes in and sometimes it doesn't. Because of his lack of strength he has not shown he can take the contact, stay strong and finish off the play. This can be worked on in the NBA and most likely will be.

Overview:

There isn't as much to talk about when it comes to most of these European players because less is seen of them. One thing is clear about Bargnani: even though he may lack the strength to battle power forwards in the post, he can flat out destroy them on offense. Because of his versatility, most power forwards will have a very hard time handling him. Once he adds some bulk, Bargnani can, and will, become the next go-to European power forward. And the first Italian power forward, nonetheless.

4. Atlanta Hawks

Adam Morrison, SF, Gonzaga, Junior, 6'8, 215 pounds.

Strengths:

Morrison has been unfairly compared to Larry Bird. But if there is one NBA player Morrison can be compared to, it is him, which can only be considered a good thing. Both have great jump shots and both have the will to win. Both are/were never considered defenders, although Bird knew how to use the passing lanes to collect steals. Using this comparison, Morrison has elevated his game to become a potential Top 3 pick, if not the #1 pick.

Morrison's shot is one of the purest in all of basketball. He can shoot it from anywhere on the court and because of his high release point, it's very, very hard to block. Which is why he shot almost 50% from the floor during his Junior season.

Its not just the fact that he can shoot that makes him such a hot commodity. Hes a rare-breed in todays NBA. He moves constantly off the ball, wearing his defender down. When he gets the ball off a screen, he either just shoot over him or uses his surprisingly quick first step to get enough space for a shot. He has a variety of ways he can score. Not just off screens, but he can pull up off one dribble of take it to the rack and finish with a floater.

The trait that stands out the most about him, besides the fact that he likes to head butt himself with a basketball, is that he has a killer instinct that almost no one in todays game has. He wants to win and just has the will to. He wont take losing as an option, which was evident when he was crying when Gonzaga lost to UCLA, even if it was a bit premature.

This season proved that he doesnt let his diabetes affect him. In his sophomore season, he came off the court for a couple of minutes so he could take his insulin shot. This year, he stayed on the court for almost every minute of the game, shooting himself up (with insulin, silly) when there was a free throw being attempted. He just didnt want to come off the court. Basically, he wants to play and he wants to win. Something I cant say for Darius Miles. (If it werent for this mock, Id go off on how Miles is absolutely worthless. And being 57, Id say it to his face, too. But he wouldnt care. His contract is guaranteed.)

Some people tend to say that Morrison is only a scorer. Yes, hes not the best defender or rebounder, but hes not the worst. During the regular season, he didnt record any double-digit rebounding totals, but he didnt record many games where he got less than five boards (nine out of 33, to be exact). He is willing to mix it up and get a rebound. It takes a toll on his body, but he stays with it and made sure that if his team needed a rebound at a certain point, he was able to deliver.

One word describes Morrison the best: clutch. He is simply money in game-ending situations. When the game is on the line, he wants the ball and knows what to do with it. He can, and has, hit 3 pointers, running shots and jumpers from anywhere and everywhere. Just like any clich, he has ice water in his veins. Theres no pressure on him in the closing seconds. And he can bring that to any NBA team that drafts him. Some teams have that go-to guy when theres very little time left, but most teams dont. Morrison has proven that he can win a game and will do just that for whoever drafts him.

Weaknesses:

Lets just say defense isnt his strong suit. He has stated that he was never really fond of defense, but he did show a lot of improvement on that side of the ball. While he was improved, he will be a guy a lot of teams will go after on D. He doesnt have the quickest feet for someone his size. And hes going to have to guard a lot of shooting guards who have smaller combo guards in their lineup. Like Tracy McGrady and Jason Richardson. These players will burn him, but he will do enough to get himself by. A lot of his defensive deficiencies could be worked on if a defense-first coach, like Torontos Sam Mitchell, Minnesotas Dwayne Casey, or the best out of the bunch, Portlands Nate McMillian, drafts him.

Unfortunately, todays NBA is based on athleticism, and Morrison doesnt have the type of athleticism to really stand out. A lot of people question whether he can become the type of small forward that can successfully play on both ends of the court. Even on offense, he may have some trouble. I hate to bring this up because a lot of people already have, but its a valid point. When Morrison didnt score a single point against Memphis in the last ten minutes or so, he was guarded by Shawne Williams, who isnt known for his D. He gave Morrison fits and forced him into tough shots that were shots Morrison normally would not even take. Most small forwards arent Williams size, but they do have his athleticism. Will Morrison be able to cope on offense by trying to take it by 3s such as Richard Jefferson, Rashard Lewis, Josh Howard and Ron Artest? It remains to be seen.

He did improve his rebounding, but he couldve easily led his team in boards. But because of his skinny frame, he tends to get pushed off the blocks with ease, leaving him out of position for rebounds. He has also shown the will to score, but not the will to rebound. Sometimes, he just couldnt get to a spot and hold his ground. If he wants to have a very long career in the NBA, he will have to improve his rebounding.

He showed that he can play through pain during college, but can he do it in the NBA? It sounds like a cop out, but some players hit the rookie wall around 50 games in. With Morrison and his diabetes, it may take a quicker toll on him. In college, he only had to play twice a week and only traveled on weeks where they were on the road. In the NBA, everyone is on the road all the time. On back-to-backs, a team will leave the city they just played in around midnight. They will fly into their next city around 3:00 am. Their shootarounds are usually around 12:00 pm, so thats less than 8 hours of sleep. Will Morrison be able to handle playing 30 minutes in both games on a rigorous schedule like that?

Overview:

There are some questions that need to be answered when it comes to Morrison, but one thing is clear: hes proven. You know what you are getting when you draft Morrison. Most teams in the Lottery need immediate help and he can bring that. He brings a winners mentality, which can rub off on everyone in the locker room. In the end, Morrison probably wont make any All-Star teams or win any MVP trophies, but he is one of the few players in this draft that can become a second or third option on a championship team.

5. Toronto Raptors

Brandon Roy, SG, Washington, 6'6, 210, Senior

Strengths:

Roy is like Mario in all of his Nintendo games, whether it be Super Mario Cart, Mario Golf or any other Mario game Im not thinking of. Hes not great in one specific area, but hes well rounded and very good in all areas of the game. With the departure of guards Nate Robinson and Will Conroy, the Huskies needed more production from Roy. Roy stepped up in every game this season, scoring less than ten points in only two games. He improved in every single category except for field goal %. Its not just that he was putting up stats. It was how he was doing it.

To start off, Roy always had the potential to be a great player, but came into his own this season, leading Washington into the Sweet 16 against UCONN (I was rooting for UCONN, but that was goaltending in OT). Roy single-handedly took over the game for the huskies, bringing the ball up the court and running plays for both him and for other teammates. He would come off screens and either slash to the hoop or dish it to a teammate. He wasnt just doing this against UCONN. He was doing it in every game this season.

Roy has always had a knack for being able to get to the rack. This year, he was able to keep defenses more honest by consistently making outside shots and showing he has an under appreciated mid range game. He can get his shot off against most defenders, but knows when to shoot and when to drive. He just knows what the defense is doing before they do and takes advantage of it.

Coming into this season, his shot was lacking a lot of range. This year, he showed that he could shoot it from college range. Even though he doesnt have NBA 3 point range right now, just the fact that he brought his 3 point percentage up 5 points says that he is a hard worker. It takes a lot of time to establish a good jump shot and Roy did just that.

His driving ability is fun to watch. Hes not the most athletic guard on the court, but he just knows that he can drive and finish. He showed that hes able to finish in a variety of ways, whether it be floaters, dunks or lay ups, Roy has the ability to become a go-to guy on offense. Whats amazing about him is that he probably wont be, but as a #2 option, he can be very effective.

When both Conroy and Robinson left, Washington didnt have a point guard who could play for 30 minutes a game. Roy stepped up in this aspect, bringing the ball up the court and initiating the offense and making sure everyone was in the right spot. He probably wont have to run the PG duties, but this year, he showed he could. And NBA teams love versatility.

Defensively, hes on par with every wing player in this draft. Even though hes known as an offensive player, Roy has quick feet and makes sure that his man has a hard time attempting to do what he needs to do. If he shoots it, Roy can make sure he doesnt get a good look. If he drives, hes willing to take the contact and stay with the play. I cant say how well he defends the post because I rarely saw him having to guard anyone in the post, but I imagine, with his intelligence and foot speed, he has the ability to get a block on a fade away J.

Weaknesses:

Although Roy is one of the most complete players in this draft, he doesnt have the type of game that warrants use for being a #1 option. Most teams want a guy that they can use as a possible #1 option. No matter where he gets drafted, hes most likely two injuries away from becoming his teams #1 option. Right now, hed be a great #2 option and a deadly #3 option.

Because hes like Mario, he may never be able to find one area in his game that fully stands out from other parts of his game. While he is well rounded, NBA teams would like to see him be able to dominate in one aspect of his game. It could be offensive rebounding or driving left. Just something. He didnt establish himself in that regard this year.

Roy doesnt have the speed that some of the wing players like Gay and Carney have. Defensively, he can keep up with a lot of players, but there are some guards who have too much speed for Roy. Because Roys a smart player, he wont have a hard time dealing with these players, but his speed does hamper him in some aspects of the game.

He doesnt have NBA 3-point range. He did shoot about 40% from 3-point land, but the NBA 3 is a lot farther away and it is always a hard adjustment for hard workers. Guys that are naturals when it comes to shooting have an easy time shooting from that far out, but for Roy, it would be a problem. Teams will force him to shoot by stay around two feet away from him. Once he proves that he can hit the 3 from that far out, teams will have to be more honest with him.

Roy had a dominant senior year, so it was his junior year that worries me. Coming off a strong sophomore year, I thought he would continue his success by putting up more numbers. But because of the deep guard rotation the Huskies had, Roy didnt get the clock he needed to produce. Most likely, he wont be getting 35-40 minutes a game, so can he produce like he did in 20 minutes? The numbers wont be the same, but will he still have the same efficiency in those 20 minutes that he did in 35+ his senior year?

Overview:

Without a doubt, Roy will be one of the first, if not the first, guard off the board. A complete player like him just cant be missed by a lot of teams that need help on both sides of the ball. If he lands with a team that has a bona fide superstar, Roy may find life easy. After all, it was Mario who got the Princess rescued. Again. And again. And again.

6. Golden State Warriors

Rudy Gay, SF, Connecticut, Junior, 6'9, 220 pounds.

Strengths:

Out of all the prospects this year, Gay, according to some, has the most potential to become a superstar. His game is very complete. To start off, his athleticism is on, if not above par, with most NBA starting small forwards. He uses his athleticism for more than just dunks, which has helped him become a possible #1 pick.

On offense, he can get his shot off against anyone. It's not textbook, but he has a nice release point and he gets up on his jump shot, making it very hard for his defender to block it. He has improved with his jump shot, even though the numbers would provide a counter argument. As a freshman, he shot 46% from the floor and an astounding 46% from the 3-point line. This year, his 3-point percentage has taken a hit, shooting 33%. When I have watched him, he's mostly played inside the perimeter, so those numbers do not surprise me.

What really stands out about Gay is his overall game. He can do everything. He can block shots, both from the weak side as well as one-on-one. He can get steals off of passes as well as picking his man's pockets. His defensive stance is exceptional, keeping his back straight and always moving his feet. But on defense, he stands out the most when it comes to blocking shots.

Most of his blocks have come from the weak side. He can hide behind a group of players, and then come out of nowhere to block the shot. It also helps when you can touch the square on the backboard. I haven't seen him ever do it, but on some of his dunks and blocks, it looks like he can get that high. This is going to be a great asset for him in the NBA because there aren't a lot of small forwards who can come off the weak side and block shots like him. The only player I can think of in this aspect is Shawn Marion, who I will touch up on.

Gay has the potential to become a superstar, but can he? Does he want to?

Weaknesses:

This is where Shawn Marion comes in. This should not be considered a weakness at all, being compared to Marion, who is the most underrated player in the NBA. It's a weakness because people think he will be that superstar, but I don't think he will be. Why?

He doesn't have that on-court persona that stands out with the generic fan. Gay doesn't have that Kobe-like persona, one that stands out and makes you watch him. Gay will produce highlight plays, but he will never be that superstar because he doesn't have that persona. A lot of people think Gay can be a superstar. His game may get to that level, but Gay, the person, won't. It's no disrespect to him, but Marion hasn't had a bad career so far.

One negative in being compared to Marion is unlike Marion, Gay disappears during long stretches of games. Marion may not be the type of player that is noticed, but he plays hard every minute hes on the court and makes sure he leaves his imprint on the court. Gay didnt do much of that this season.

In three minutes, he will fill up the stat sheet, with something along the lines of seven points, three boards, one assist, two steals and a block. Fifteen minutes later, that line will change to nine points, 4 boards, one assist, two steals and two blocks. It's not so much that stats necessarily matter. But there are many instances during these stretches where he doesn't do little things like takes charges or set picks, opening up another player's shot. Gay must either bring it for the full amount of time he's on the court or step it up in other aspects when he's struggling.

Gay has improved his shooting, but he lacks the 3-point range. When I've seen him play, he is rarely around the 3-point line. Most small forwards have a decent outside game, but I have yet to see Gay perform a step-back move, or a couple dribbles and shoot. Little things like that. Granted, I haven't seen him as much as a UCONN fan or the other draft experts in the business, but I have yet to see Gay step up in that area. Can he? Yes. Has he? No.

His ball handling needs to improve. He rarely has the ball on the perimeter. It has improved from last year, but he will have trouble in his first couple years in the NBA trying to get by players because his ball handling is so-so. It's one of the many areas that can be improved, unlike a desire to go after the ball, or not trying most of the time.

Overview:

Gay has all the tools to be a dominant player in the NBA. He has the athleticism necessary and the defense to be a knat against small forwards. But if he wants to become that dominant player, then he has to want it. Everyone knows its there, but he cant disappear in games like he did against George Mason. Once teams see him in workouts, he will most likely jump back into the Top 5 mix. No matter where he is drafted, Gay could have a very bright career. The potential is there, he just has to want it.

7. Boston Celtics

Tiago Splitter, PF/C, Tau Vitoria/Ceramica, 21 years old, 7'0. 240.

Strengths:

Before I get into Splitters strengths, his situation is a little iffier than most of the players in this years draft. He does have a buyout with Tau Vitoria/Ceramica and both he and the President of Tau have said he will be returning next season. However, with the weaker crop of big men and his steady, consistent play this season, I wouldnt be surprised if his name was on the official list of early entrants. He has the best chance this year to be a Top 10 pick than he does next year. With that said, here is why hes one of the top power forwards/centers.

Splitter has always been plagued by inconsistency. He never put up great numbers, but thats because his minutes were never there. This season, with a coaching change came a new opportunity for Splitter. Splitter started to get consistent minutes and showed that he can produce when given those minutes. Splitter is a steady player across the board.

One of his best attributes is his post defense. Unlike Bargnani, he can hold his ground in the post, making it a lot more difficult than it usually is for the big men in Spain and in the Euroleague. He uses his body to bang with his opponents and quick feet to stay with them if there is any quick change of direction. He makes sure that if he doesnt block the shot, he makes it more difficult for them.

Splitter isnt the fastest big man in this draft, but he runs a pretty close third behind Aldridge and Thomas. Splitter is one of the best players in this draft at getting up and down the court. He easily out runs his opponents and has even out ran his point guard. Once he gets down the court, he maintains position for either a handoff from a guard or runs the middle of the floor for a dunk. Because he isnt bulky, he doesn't have a hard time running for 25+ minutes a game. His conditioning is what has made his so effective against his opposition.

There were many times where Splitter establishes great position in the post, but never gets the ball. If hes on the court with Luis Scola, the ball usually goes to Scola. If Splitter does get the ball, he is immediately double-teamed. He is one of the few players that dont hold the ball for more than three seconds in the post. He makes quick and smart decisions with the ball. He can anticipate when and where a double-teaming is coming from. He will dribble towards it, making the big thats guarding think hes going toward the oncoming player, then he will spin the other way for a hook shot.

A lot of people rag on Splitter for not having a complete offensive skill set. But for Tau, he doesnt get the chance to show off what he can do. Splitter gets most of his points off dunks, offensive rebounds or post moves. He doesnt get the freedom Scola has. At the same time, he doesnt have the offense that Scola has. But he does have an underrated mid range jumper.

He doesnt knock it in on a consistent basis, but he has the correct form for a post player. He keeps the ball high enough so it wont get blocked, but low enough to blow by his opponent if they bite on a pump fake. Besides, a jump shot is one of the few things that can become added in the NBA.

When teams want to draft someone in the lottery, they want someone who has potential but isnt completely raw. They also want to turn their team around by drafting and signing winners. Splitter is a winner. Hes played on a team that reached the Euroleague Championship game last year and the Final Four this year, which will be broadcasted on NBA TV. But playing for his home country is where he stood out the most.

He was on the Brazil team that earned a trip to Japan for this summers World Championships by winning the FIBA Americas Championship. Splitters highlights in that tournament were against three worthy opponents. Uruguay, who had current Hawk Esteban Batista; USA, who didnt have great post players, but it was the USA; and Argentina, the defending Olympic Gold Medalists. In those 3 games, Splitter averaged 20.6 points, 12 rebounds (5.67 offensive), 2.3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks and 3.67 turnovers in 36.3 minutes. Granted, the competition isnt the greatest, but Splitter proved he can play when given the minutes and he is doing just that for Tau right now.

Weaknesses:

Even though Splitter is a very good post defender, Europe doesn't have the style of basketball that revolves around the post. Most teams dont have decent big men, so they work the ball around with the guards and smaller forwards. When Splitter does guard players in the post, nine times out of ten, they are not very good in the post. What has helped him is going against a versatile forward in Scola every practice, but in game time, Splitter rarely has to go up against NBA caliber bigs. He has a decent frame that can add muscle, but he will have hard time adjusting to the bulky brawn of NBA 4s and 5s.

Ive stated my case for why Splitter doesnt get many offensive opportunities. Even though he has Scola on his team, Splitter has not established the outside game that NBA management and scouts want to see. He does have a decent jump shot, but he is about three years away from proving that he can keep teams honest with it. It wont be a big problem in the future, but he comes out and fails to make his open jumpers, it could reduce his playing time, depending on what team he goes to.

He has the size to become an effective rebounder, but in some games, he has a hard time knowing where the ball is going to be. Against Winterthur FC Barcelona back in December, Splitter was in the post on defense and a shot was taken. While the shot was in the air, Splitter turned toward the basket, but didnt know where the ball was. He then turned the other way and completely mistimed the ball. He allowed an offensive rebound on that play. In that game, he lost track of the ball a couple of times when it was in the air. He can rebound, but its not natural for him. For a guy his size, he does get a decent amount of boards, but he couldve easily had 4 more rebounds in that game if he knew where the ball was.

His biggest concern, or at least to NBA teams, is whether or not they are going to have another Fran Vazquez situation. After watching both play in person, I can assure everyone that Splitter is more NBA ready now. Because both he and Taus President came out and said he was staying, it makes his situation very cloudy. Even though NBA teams can help out with an international players buyout more now (from $350,000 to $500,000), Tau Vitoria/Ceramica is known for having very large buyouts in their players contracts. Scolas is rumored to be around $9-10 million. Granted, thats just a rumor, but buyouts are sticky situations and no team in the lottery wants to pass up a player that could help their team for someone who may never come over (Vazquez).

Overview:

Splitter is one of the more proven big men in this years draft because hes won in both international tournaments as well as leagues such as the ACB and Euroleague. When he gets the minutes, he produces on both offense and defense, something some of the players in the 06 SFT cannot claim. If he does come out, and that is an if, he will most likely be a Top 10 pick because of the fact he has proven he can be consistent when his minutes are consistent. I wont be surprised if he pulls out, but if he stays in, youre going to be hearing about this kid in regards to being a potential Top 5 pick.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Rajon Rondo, PG, Kentucky, Sophomore, 6'1, 175 pounds.

Strengths:

Rondo is a freak of nature. To start out, he has hands the size of Dikembe Mutombos. I dont know if they are actually the same size, but theyre pretty close. He has around a 67-68 wingspan. He has the prototypical defensive body: long arms to disrupt the opposing guard and hands that can deflect almost any pass that is normally out of reach.

Besides his natural attributes, the first thing that comes to mind about Rondo is his defense. His man-to-man defense is one of the best for guards in this draft crop. He uses his natural talent for defending his man and knows where to be positioned to make things hard.

Rondo has the natural talent that very few players that play basketball have. It's not just on defense, though. Offensively, he's very gifted in all but one area. His driving ability is right up there with this crop's guards. He has a quick first step and his handle is one of the best, if not the best. His hands play a big part in staying in control with the ball as well as his body when he drives. He uses hesitation and quick decisions to get by his man, either finishing with a floater or kicking it out to someone on the wing.

Unfortunately, he got into it with Head Coach Tubby Smith. I have no idea what happened, but it cost Rondo point guard duties, which is why a lot of people have him ranked low on their boards. When Rondo had the ball in his hands and his job was to run the team, Kentucky succeeded. Bobby Perry and Patrick Sparks were able to get open looks off his drives. Randolph Morris got many dunks and lay-ups off his dishes. Rondo helped Kentucky win. He knows where to get the ball and how to get it there. He knows where the ball should be in order to produce the best results and he gets it there with a lot of success.

When it comes to rebounding, no one thinks of a point guard. Rondo is one of the rare exceptions. Rondo averaged 4.9 rebounds, which is unheard of for point guards, let alone sophomores. Rondo's rebounding makes it easier for his teammates to get up court. NBA teams love rebounding guards, even though they are few and far between. He had five double-digit rebounding games, including a career-high 19 against Iowa on November 21st. He may never record that many rebounds in a game again, but those type of number wake everyone up, including teams in the Lottery. 10 of the 14 teams in the Lottery are at the bottom of the league in rebounding and a guard like Rondo can only help that go up.

Weaknesses:

His jump shot.

I really want to leave it at that, because his jump shot is that bad. He has the type of form that you see out of guys who meet up at the local YMCA every Tuesday and Thursday morning. What is really odd about it is he has the talent to become a good shooter, but his hands and coaching has played a part in how bad his form is. He just doesn't look comfortable shooting jumpers and if he wants to have any sort of driving game in the NBA, he will have to show teams in workouts that it has improved drastically.

He has the natural talent and instincts to become one of the best point guards. But he tends to turn the ball over in random times, which kills any chance of his team having consistency. On the season, he had a 2.11 assist-to-turnover ratio, which is good for point guards. But after watching some of the games, when his team needed a spark, he would turn the ball over on a forced drive or a 3 pointer, which he shouldn't be taking.

I don't know what it was, but playing the 2 spot for most of this year did anything but improve his draft stock. He will always be viewed as a Lottery pick because of his upside, but by having some sort of beef with Smith, Rondo was forced to get minutes as a shooting guard, taking away almost all of the impact he normally would have as the point guard. His shooting percentages were always bad as a 2. The fact that Smith would not play him at his natural position has to say something about why Rondo reportedly signed an agent so soon.

Defensively, he can guard almost everyone, but in the game against Connecticut, Rondo was exposed against Craig Austrie. Austrie is a very quick point guard. While Rondo is normally good at defending point guards, whether they be smaller or bigger than him, Austrie's quick twitch moves left Rondo going the other way a few times. Just a simple crossover would shake Rondo. There aren't a lot of point guards who have Austrie's quickness, but if Rondo was draft by a team like Minnesota, who has to go up against Tony Parker a few times a year, those are games where Rondo may be seeing very few minutes. Everything can change once he hits the NBA court, but those little quick guards may give him fits.

I don't know if he's a good kid or a troublemaker, but I have to assume that he may have problems with a coach who likes a lot of control over his team. It didn't seem like he and Smith had any problems last year, but teams always look at character and this situation will come up when they are looking at him coming into the draft. Who knows, he could be a class act and it just didn't work out at Kentucky, but something went wrong.

Overview:

Even though he didn't have a great season, he is one of the few players who has the natural talent that will make teams think twice about passing on him. He has some of the best potential in this year's SFT. If he can correct some of his weaknesses, he can become a very deadly point guard for many, many years. The biggest knock on him is his jump shot and that is one of the very few things Rondo needs to work on in order to become the complete player everyone sees that he can become.

9. Orlando Magic

Rodney Carney, SG/SF, Memphis, Senior, 6'7, 205.

Strengths:

Carney is the prototypical swingman every Lottery team pines for: an athletic player who has long range on his jumper and athleticism to compete immediately. Carney also has some of the best upside in this draft because of his dynamics. He can play either the 2 or 3. He has the touch and lift on his shot to become an effective gunner from 3-point land. But to start off, the most impressive part of his game is defense.

At least to me, his defense is what's going to keep him on an NBA team for years to come. He is always moving his feet and his lateral speed is top notch. He has lock down capabilities. He can stay with any player his size and even smaller guards. Most of the guards he went up against in C-USA were smaller than him, so he usually has a mismatch on offense. He had to pick up his defense this year because most of the guards could usually get by a guy his size. Because he keeps his defenders in front of him with his textbook style of defense, offensive guards had a hard time scoring on him.

On offense, he has the athleticism to become a highlight reel guard along the lines of Vince Carter. He is a great finisher and is usually looking to go up for a dunk on his drives. His hops and timing for jumping make it an improbability for opposing centers to block his shot. He has a decent handle already, but he has the tools to become a great inside-outside guard. His shot can keep defenses honest and he uses that to blow by them for dunks and lay-ups.

His jump shot is right up there with everyone in this draft. He has the type of lift on his shot that can help him shoot around 40% from 3-point land in three years. Because his hops are out of this world, he looks more comfortable the farther he shoots it out from. If he works hard at it, he has the type of ability to become like Jason Richardson. He has the natural athleticism to do it, but he's going to have to work for it. His form is already there, he just needs to keep shooting away.

Weaknesses:

Even though he has 3-point range, he relied on it way too much in a lot of games this season. There were times where he could've cut into the lane on a zone break, but he waited for Darius Washington to kick it out to him. Even if he missed five in a row, he would take the sixth without thinking twice. His shot selection was pretty bad this season. He won't get many opportunities to shoot six in a row if he doesn't make two or three of them.

Because he would hang out on the perimeter, it would take away from what else he could do and what Memphis could do. I won't say he'd take off plays, but I will say there were many times where he could've made it easier for his team by driving instead of standing in one spot. There are some players who tend to stay in one spot or just not do much for stretches of games when they are in and right now, Carney fits that bill. Just like Rudy Gay, he has all the tools in the world to play in a dominating-like fashion, but he fades into obscurity too often for a player like himself.
When he hangs out on the perimeter, the first thing he would do is shoot the rock when he got it. Sometimes, he was the last option, but there were a few times where he could wait for his team to reset so they could get another opportunity to run a play. A fair amount of his 3-pointers were taken when there was around 17-22 seconds on the shot clock. He can wait to see if he able to make a play for his teammate, but he was fairly impatient with the ball and would either take it himself or shoot it. SGs with his talent are nice, but everyone needs to touch the ball, not just the shooting guard.

Carney is a late bloomer, but is he a late bloomer because he just didn't find the right situation or because some people felt he might have a lower than normal basketball IQ? After going back and looking at high schools rankings, he wasn't a highly rated recruit coming out of high school. At Memphis, his inconsistent play raised many questions about him. Does he heavily depend on his athleticism to get by? Everyone looks at his play and asks hat because he can dominate for two minutes and look like he's making the right plays. The next, he'll hang on the perimeter and force passes or shots that normally would be terrible decisions. I think he knows how to play the game, but gets rattled for one reason or another when something goes wrong. If that's so, teams will rather take a chance on someone who can boost their confidence rather than someone who is only in it for the money.

Overview:

Carney is a Top 5 talent, but did not show up in a lot of big games. Lucky for him, workouts are designed so players like him can show the tools that are necessary to succeed at the NBA level. I wouldn't be surprised if he were drafted in the Top 5 by a team who may need a SG in a year or two. If he can show that he can do more than just hang out on the perimeter and dunk, he will become his team's next fan favorite. Unless he somehow gets drafted by the Warriors, then he's someone Baron Davis and J-Rich can conduct a three-man, off-the-glass dunk with. In all seriousness, Carney has the tools to become an All-Star, but he needs to show teams that he won't stay behind the line. Once he does that, teams and draft sites will have him bumped up into the Top 5 again.

10. Houston Rockets

Mardy Collins, SG/SF, Temple, Senior, 66, 220.

Strengths:

Collins is not the prototypical, athletic 2/3 like Gay and Carney. He's a head's up player. He lets the game come to him and he's the type of guard who has the versatility Lottery teams like. He has the mid range to be an effective shooting guard and the court vision and instincts to run the point if he were playing along side a player like Ben Gordon or Luther Head.

His basketball IQ is right up there in this crop of guards. He doesn't rush his decisions and makes sure the decision he's making is the right one. He will make sure he knows where everyone is at, no matter if he's driving or coming off a screen with the ball. If there a man that could be open on the right if he drives right, he can force the defense to come to him, which frees up his teammate for an open jumper. He can get the ball in the right spot for the power forward/center. He just knows that if a leads to B and B leads to C, he can skip B and make it look like it was the right thing to do. And he does a pretty darn good job of doing it, too.

Most of the recent combo guards that have come in the NBA have been around the size of a point guard, like Head, Gordon and Gilbert Arenas. Collins is the exact opposite. Those three are natural gunners that have decent point guard abilities. Collins can play as a two, but won't hurt the team if he plays the point. Just like all those reasons listed in the previous paragraph, Collins has the abilities to run the sets like the head coach wants him to. He has the court vision to see over a guard that may be smaller than him, enabling him to make a skip pass or an entry pass that another combo guard, like those three listed above, would have a harder time completing.

His mid-range game is what separates him from everyone else. Most players want to establish that they can shoot the 3 when they should have no business shooting from 25 feet away. Some players like to dunk for their two points and end up getting their attempt blocked. Collins is content with shooting from around 15-20 feet. Most guards eventually will take their shots from farther away in hopes of stretching out the defense. If Collins has a relatively smaller guard on him, or even a guard who's around his size, he will either post up and shoot from that range or take it on him for some sort of finish. It doesn't even have to be his finish, but the end result is usually positive.

Collins doesn't possess blazing speed, but he knows that no matter how fast or slow his defender is, he knows he can get by him. If he's a slower guard he'll use a jab step in one direction, then go the other way for a one-dribble shot or a floater. If he's a faster guard, he will shoot a jumper or two to get his man thinking that's all he will do. Once he makes two, he's golden. He'll use a ball fake or head fake to get his man either jumping for a block or leaning one way for an attempt to stop him. Right away, he's at his mercy. Collins will never develop the speed that some players use to their advantage, but he will make sure that he is working on some sort of move that counteracts their speed. He's not slow, but he's not the fastest guy, either.

Collins is a proven player and one of the most experienced, but one thing that separates him from almost everyone else is his durability. Some seniors had to ride the pine when they were freshmen and might have received a chance when they were sophomores. When Collins was a freshman, he averaged 35 for one of the most legendary coaches in all of basketball, John Chaney. Sure, he threatened to kill another coach and sent a "goon" into a game, but he knows how basketball is supposed to be played and Collins averaged no less than 35 minutes a game in each of his seasons. That was when he was a freshman. If he's played in almost every single game in his entire career for almost every single minute, then NBA teams who know that they can depend on him for consistent production for a certain amount of time he's on the court.

Weaknesses:

Even though the smaller combo guards are having a success doesn't necessarily mean that Collins will as well. In fact, there aren't many big combo guards that are succeeding right now. Marko Jaric is playing behind Marcus Banks, after getting a $40 million contract last summer. Jiri Welsch has become a bench warmer for Milwaukee. Jeryl Sasser is out of the league. Reece Gaines, also on the Bucks, is one his way to following Sasser. John Salmons gets inconsistent burn. These guards have had a hard time establishing any sort of game. The best case, Jaric, is one of the most inconsistent players in the entire NBA. Teams will think about this coming into the draft.

In most cases, it's a good thing when what you see in a player is what you get. Collins is exactly that. Although he can have success on the NBA level, he will never be that star player that Gay and Carney can become. Right now, he is better than them, but will he be in five years? Three years? Collins is already a veteran type player, but teams in the Lottery usually want someone they can try and build around. At the same time, drafting players like Collins can only produce immediate results; depending on what team he gets drafted on.

Because Collins isn't athletic like Gay and Carney, he may have a harder time guarding some of the smaller guards like Arenas and Gordon if he has to. He doesn't have the athleticism or foot speed to stay with their drives. Granted, not a lot of players do, but a combo guard like Collins will usually have to guard these types of guys when both teams go to untraditional lineups.

Unlike the proven players like Morrison, Shelden Williams and J.J. Redick, Collins hasn't won on the college level. His team never made it to the NCAA Tournament and always had to settle for the NIT Tourney. Chaney's system is a very slow and unattractive system to most college kids, so I'm not surprised after looking at their past lineups. But teams do like winners. Collins is the type of player that would benefit from playing with a great front-line (Utah) and he never got the chance to do that at Temple. A change of scenery may help him out.

Overview:

Collins is the type of player that is proven and you what what you get. Fortunately, the pros heavily out weigh the cons. He may not ever be a franchise guy, but he is the type of guy that would benefit from being a "transition" player. When he's 23, he can play with either a young team or a veteran team. When he's 33, he can play with a young team or a veteran team. Either way, Collins has the type of game that everyone can play around. </div>

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<font size=""1"">Btw, Mods, if one is suppose to post things like these plesae just close it down, I wasn't 100% sure.</font>