Here are the odds of which pick we can get (we'll have 88 lottery balls out of 1000): Pick 1: 8.8% Pick 2: 9.64% Pick 3: 10.65% Pick 4: 0% Pick 5: 26.24% Pick 6: 35.89% Pick 7: 8.41% Pick 8: 0.37% Pick 9 or lower: 0% We're sitting pretty this year ... either for drafting or including that pick in a bigger deal.
why if we finished 5th last, do we have the greatest chance of getting the 6th pick? And why do we have no shot at #4?
We have no shot at 4th because once the first 3 picks are given out by the lottery, the rest is determined by regular season record. Therefore even if the Lottery went according to plan e.g Blazers, Bulls (from knicks) ,Bobcats. The Hawks would still have a worse record than us. It also assures that we can drop no more than 3 spots from our projected draft position and that would only happen the top 3 spots in lottery were filled by teams ahead of us in the standings e.g Timberwolves, Jazz, Rockets or some other combination. With regards to us having the greatest chance at 6th I can only explain it as we have a 55.4% chance of geting picks 1-5 (.088,.096,.106,.262) while we have 45.6% (0.359,.084,.004) chance of getting picks 6-8. For instance the Bulls, Bobcats and Blazers all have a better shot of gettingt the 4th pick in the draft than they do pickd1, or 2 or 3. I think this is caused by making everyone eligible for the top 3 picks
<div class="quote_poster">Quoting Drunkballer:</div><div class="quote_post">We have no shot at 4th because once the first 3 picks are given out by the lottery, the rest is determined by regular season record. Therefore even if the Lottery went according to plan e.g Blazers, Bulls (from knicks) ,Bobcats. The Hawks would still have a worse record than us. It also assures that we can drop no more than 3 spots from our projected draft position and that would only happen the top 3 spots in lottery were filled by teams ahead of us in the standings e.g Timberwolves, Jazz, Rockets or some other combination. With regards to us having the greatest chance at 6th I can only explain it as we have a 55.4% chance of geting picks 1-5 (.088,.096,.106,.262) while we have 45.6% (0.359,.084,.004) chance of getting picks 6-8. For instance the Bulls, Bobcats and Blazers all have a better shot of gettingt the 4th pick in the draft than they do pickd1, or 2 or 3. I think this is caused by making everyone eligible for the top 3 picks</div> ..... ..... ...... thats some ****** up **** !
