Bloated Contracts & Bloated Perceptions in GS

Bloated Contracts & Bloated Perceptions in GS

I'm beginning to have this hunch. It's just a hunch. Maybe the rest of the league is on to GS.

Whadda think?

I guess, in order to appease my desperate need for hope here in Warriorland, I've been flirting with the idea that maybe other teams really don't know what GS knows. Like maybe GS could fool a team into taking Dunleavy because he's an untapped source of lottery-pick potential that, on the right team, could flourish. OR maybe there are some teams out there that look at the stat sheet and say "DAMN! That Troy Murphy is a classic double-double guy! He's 6'11", can shoot the three, and can bang all day in the post for loose boards. We gotta get that guy!" Or maybe there's a GM out there that looks at Adonal Foyle and sees a "veteran center."

However, I'm starting to have doubts. I'm starting to feel like everyone in the league is quitely laughing at Golden State. Mullin came out and basically guarunteed activity this off-season. He said he was disappointed, and that the club must make moves, must be big players in the free agent/trade market. However, it seems like no one in the league took his bait. I mean, Utah took his veteran point guard and gave him three scrubs, but that's about it (not the kind of bluckbuster roster move I'd expected).

Of course it's easy for us fans to overrate the players, especially when you're a homer like me. But, for the many of us that believed a Murphy for Harrington swap was a fair NBA trade, were we foolish to think that? I'm starting to wonder.

I'm starting to wonder if the Bobcats would even consider an Othella Harrington for Troy Murphy swap. I'm starting to think that not only have we fans overrated some of the Warriors players, but Mullin has as well. I mean, I've heard the arguements that Foyle got the going rate for centers in the league, and that there was a premium on big men, and that Dampier just left so we had to keep Mr. Democracy, but I'd like to take this opportunity to politely say that this arguement is pure horseshit.

Foyle was way overpaid. Like a homer obsessive fan, Mullin way overrated Foyle's clumsy ass. Wtf?

What I'm starting to suspect is that, even though Troy Murphy has a $9-10 mil/year contract, there's no player in league with a matching salary that any GM would consider "swapping." Most GMs are probably waiting for the day when a $4 mil contract can be swapped straight up for a $9 mil contract. Then Phoenix will call and offer Eric Piatkowski for Troy Murphy straight up.

Until then, we can toy with "Murphy" trades like he's a valuable chip on the market, but I have a hunch the other GMs are thinking WTF with those Mullin signings.

I mean c'mon, who in their right mind would ever trade ANYTHING at all and take back Adonal Foyle in return?

Mullin talked the talk, but it seems like he's finding out it takes two GMs to walk the walk.

 

Actually Mullin making comments about making changes to a disappointing roster in the aftermath of last season gave potential trading partners the hope that they could get what they want and dump players/contracts back to the Warriors. If GMs think you are trading in desperation they will look to get more back than what they are giving up. Trade negotiations rarely start looking for win/win scenarios, especially in a league like the NBA, with a salary cap and luxury cap.

To put Foyle's and Murphy's contracts in the same boat is unwarranted. Problem is Murphy is paid starter $$, negotiated in the same year that Randolph got max $$ and Brian Cardinal was overpaid setting a range for Murphy that resulted in his deal. Murphy has value, problem is finding the not only the skill set fit but also the salary cap fit. Most teams including the Mavericks have become Lux tax adverse. Trades anymore are as much about the luxury tax implications both short and long term as the actual basketball part.

 

There is no question that both Foyle and Dunleavy's contracts are untradable and probably one of the worst contracts in the league. Foyle was signed for couple mils per year less because Mullin didn't like Dampier, and Dunleavy was signed for all wrong reasons. And, it doesn't take a rocket science to figure that out. But Murphy? He clearly has a value.

Murphy isn't exactly Davis like type, that teams would gladly accept his contract for expiring contract. His contract is huge regardless of his production, and it will take right match to trade him away. But, unlike paperweights named Dunelavy and Foyle, teams have interest in Murphy, and I am sure Mullin gets phone call regarding Murphy. Can we trade Murphy for expiring contract? Maybe. But, since Murphy is our only tradable big ticket to get something, I think Mullin will hold onto Murphy till the right deal pops out.

My concern with Murphy is that his value can drop next year. His role with this club will only decrease, and since Murphy is basically "X amount of mins = X amount of production" type of player, lesser role could drop the production. And, his image throughout the league can be changed from "Automatic double-double PF" to "Defensive liability who gets 10 mils per year". If so, it would be extremely hard to trade Murphy as well. The best time to trade Murphy is now, but let's see if the right deal is out there.

And the moment Mullin said "This team is underachiving" to Muss' team, I never took his word seriously...

 

I think this situation is comparable with that of the New York Knicks or the Philadelphia 76ers. Both teams have cap issues, came off disappointing seasons, and promised action. I agree with anotherview, in that I think other teams came into this offseason believing NY, Philly, and GS would be desperate and could be taken advantage of. Mullin can promise a shakeup all he wants, but I think he's realizing that how difficult it is to shakeup a team that is burdened with so many bad contracts.

I also agree with you, AlleyOop, when you think that perhaps the value of an Adonal Foyle or Mike Dunleavy is grossly overrated. The Knicks and 76ers also have players like that (Richardson, Dalembert, etc.). These players could benefit teams, as they fit specific needs, but their contracts are those of a top-tier player.

 

I promise...... I forgot Ratliffe was in the League LOL!!!! No joke!

 

In addition to developing the young centers,asap,the warriors need to play Murphy at C some. Yhat increases his worth rather as a keeper or as trade bait. With Monty running things,the perception will be we are a bunch of underachievers.

 

One thing I don't like about 82games stat is that they usually gather up raw stats, create some formular, and mash everything into one number. Not only stat doesn't say everything, it can open up a whole new can of worm, because people can create some weird formular and try to argue something in their favor. That's why I usually don't take numbers from 82games too seriously. From that list, I would gladly trade Foyle for Dampier, Maglore and Curry any day...

 

Good point, Kwan. It's like trying to argue Murphy's stats as positives while also seeing he does few other things besides rebounding and shooting. Things that Clif Robinson and Ike Diogu actually do, like make the extra pass and contest shots at the rim. I've never seen a poorer effort on passing or help D since Antwan Jamison, and Murph ain't no Antwan Jamison. If only we didn't have such a bad time on the glass... Double digit rebounding can be hard to replace, unless Center and Power forward make up enough between them on both ends.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">I've never seen a poorer effort on passing or help D since Antwan Jamison, and Murph ain't no Antwan Jamison. If only we didn't have such a bad time on the glass... </div>

Good point CR2 -- you know, IMO part of the reason Murphy gets so many boards is because he plays such terrible defense. It's like the offensive guy is going to the rim, Murphy's teammate(s) is contesting the shot, and Murphy is there, still flatfooted on the ground, waiting to snatch the loose board.

It's true. He's so slow, he often reaches a hand out half-heartedly as the offensive player flies right by him.

You see, Foyle, Biedrins, Ike, and even JRich all contest shots and jump to try to block shots. The problem is that this can put you in poor position to actually grab the subsequent rebound. Murphy, playing no D at the rim, is poised perfectly to inhale the loose board.

 

I think your response is one of a typical fan (My initial feelings as well). It's an emotional knee-jerk reaction. We're all upset that Mullin failed on his promise (thus far). Let's try to wait and see how this plays out before jumping to any conclusions.

 

I think such responses are understandable though. I think some fans could see this coming since '04 when the books were clear. Now we've got some respectable drafts, but a lot of dead weight in an attempt to surround the young guys with vet presence (bad vet presence, as in no skill to play certain positions or any position).

Isiah Thomas has been messing up bigger than Mullin. I think former Celtics guys Kevin McHale and Danny Ainge also have been kind of crappy as was that one guy from Toronto that guy fired. The guy running the Clippers was terrible for a long time until he finally figured out that he needs to give his big men a backcourt to actually get the ball inside to his all-star. It doesn't help when the initial backcourt was Qrich/Maggette, some of the most selfish swing players in the league, that'd rather score than make the extra pass. Plus, Andre Miller was kind of bad for them as was Lamar Odom. Then they got a few guys who didn't really play point guard or shooting guard like one was supposed to. I mean they already had a 20/10 power forward that could play defense. We'd kill for that kind of player. But I bet Mullin wouldn't know how to design the backcourt to actually get the ball inside.

 

People forget how good Baron is when he's healthy though. At least Mullin didn't panic and get the wrong guy. Let's face it, the move he made this off-season was a step in the right direction, and not getting Harrington for too much is also the right step. Deep down I wonder if Mullin is finally getting it, not that our pieces are too overvalued... Honestly... the talent that the warriors have (the ones we are looking to move) are will be solid role players for teams making a push, or guys that you can lump together in order to get a big time talent that a team will be looking to dump at the trade deadline.

Yes, we're all sick of the next year, next time, blahblahblah. But I'd rather he not make a move hat will throw the balance off even more, then wait for the right move.

 

We don't know Mullin is finally getting responsible with finance or just couldn't afford to overbid Indiana. Either way, in terms of future finance, I am glad we do not sign Harrington with at least 9.5 mils per year. The moment we make Murphy for Harrington trade, Harrington's value will probably be lower than Murphy's value. Because, 6'11" PF who can average double double with 10 mils per year has more value than 6'9" SF-PF who will most likely average around 16/7. And, if we ever plan to resign any of Biedrins, Ellis, Taft, Pietrus or Zarko, we do need another salary dump. Fisher trade probably made us fly right under the luxury tax line, and we need to dump another contract or two to sign our young players without crossing luxury tax line. And, at this point, the best option looks like Murphy, and with luck, we may dump Murphy's contract like how we dumped Fisher.

That has been said, I don't know how close we were to sign Harrington. Because, when we dumped Fisher, Mullin really came out and said next big thing is coming soon. Did Mullin make fans exicited too soon? Or, did things go wrong?

 

..Or is there something else in the works? We don't know. I'd like to hear another interview with him sometime soon.

 

I can see Mullin doing a little jig right now, before he is promptly booed and thrown off stage.

At least Mullin isn't in a world of hurt just yet. Another poor move will top it off though. To illustrate what little breathing room he has, he needs to get rid of one of Foyle/Dunleavy/Murphy before investing in anybody else for 4-6 years as starter. Also, since Foyle/Dunleavy are considered undesirable by probably a lot of teams, our best bet is to trade off Troy Murphy, get Ike Diogu ready to replace his stats and see if Dunleavy can rebound from a poor shooting year and help get the big men in the paint involved. The stink of it is Foyle probably would be valuable if his contract was short and his deal a little bit smaller like most backup centers. Then with Dunleavy, he's unmoveable right now because of BYC rules and because he came off a bad shooting year. Plus, his upside is nothing more than a glue player, I believe. A glue player we do need, but we could live without for a year or two if the inside-outside game is there. To avoid the luxury tax, I think Mullin should trade Murphy's solidness to introduce more defensive toughness into the lineup whether that be Ike/Taft PF platoon or to re-sign Ellis when he comes up. Hopefully, Ellis can be re-signed for cheap because if he turns out to be bust once he gets the money, we're screwed again when we have to deal with Biedrins or Ike contract situation. When it comes to money for performance, Richardson's contract is probably the ideal one for this franchise because he it allows the GM to fit more Richardson type talents on this franchise. So hopefully, money for performance, we don't overpay any of our own guys. Mullin definitely has to be careful of paying for potential and not having guys live up to it (like Dunleavy).