Make or Break Season for Joe

Discussion in 'Denver Nuggets' started by Shapecity, Aug 17, 2006.

  1. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Three weeks removed from his 31st birthday and seven weeks removed from arthroscopic knee surgery, Joe Smith is at a pivotal stage of his NBA career.
    The 2006-07 season represents a "contract year" - one that will influence the way he is perceived on the open market next summer.

    When his time with the Nuggets ends, will he be viewed as a quality veteran on the rise or a former No. 1 overall pick limping toward the downside of his career?

    Smith does his best not to think too far ahead, lest it distract from the goal of winning games, but he also appreciates the importance of his 11th NBA season.

    "I try to approach every year the same, but you do have to realize that this is it - this can make or break you," he said during a visit to the Pepsi Center on Wednesday.

    "I'm not 19 anymore. I've got to

    realize that I have to go out there and play some good basketball in order to keep it going."

    The Nuggets certainly saw plenty of present-day value in Smith when they acquired him from the Milwaukee Bucks last week for swingman Ruben Patterson.

    In 10 seasons, the 6-foot-10, 225- pound forward has averaged 12.4 points and 7.1 rebounds. He has decent shooting range for a big man and can help open up the floor as coach George Karl tries to redefine his up-tempo offense.</div>

    Source
     
  2. Moo2K4

    Moo2K4 NBA West Producer

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    I think Smith is going to have trouble finding minutes this year. The frontcourt is already pretty crowded with Nene, Martin, and Camby. Unless Nene ends up as the backup center, which is possible, Smith will have problems finding minutes at the PF.
     
  3. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    This move made little sense to me, especially since they drafted Leon Powe and then traded him to the Celtics. Leon Powe is younger, cheaper and has a lot of upside. He could have played the limited backup minutes at PF for the Nuggets without costing the team much.

    Instead they bring in Joe Smith who's been plagued with injuries, is overpaid, and is nearing the end of his career. On top of it, they lose their best perimeter defender left in Ruben Patterson. This team has taken a step backward in the offseason and I wouldn't be surprised to see Denver not making it to the playoffs next season.

    The better decision would have been keeping Powe and making an offer to retain Reggie Evans.
     
  4. Moo2K4

    Moo2K4 NBA West Producer

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    I agree with ya here Shape. The only thing I see in this trade would be wanting his expiring contract. However, I still think the Nugs have potential to make the playoffs, though it'll be tough for them. They still have a great trio in the frontcourt, well, if they can stay healthy. Carmelo's going to have another huge year. Andre Miller is solid at the point. They're bench should be pretty decent, with either Martin or Nene on the bench with Boykins, Smith, and, well that's about it. I also think JR Smith is going to have a good season this year. He's going to be the starter, seeing as how there's really no one else to compete for that job, and I think he could be a very good 2nd or 3rd option alongside 'Melo. All in all, the starting five does look pretty good, but...the bench is a huge question mark.
     
  5. The One & Only

    The One & Only JBB The Orlando Tragic

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting shapecity:</div><div class="quote_post">This move made little sense to me, especially since they drafted Leon Powe and then traded him to the Celtics. Leon Powe is younger, cheaper and has a lot of upside. He could have played the limited backup minutes at PF for the Nuggets without costing the team much.

    Instead they bring in Joe Smith who's been plagued with injuries, is overpaid, and is nearing the end of his career. On top of it, they lose their best perimeter defender left in Ruben Patterson. This team has taken a step backward in the offseason and I wouldn't be surprised to see Denver not making it to the playoffs next season.

    The better decision would have been keeping Powe and making an offer to retain Reggie Evans.</div>

    I completely agree Shape.
     
  6. Bobcats

    Bobcats JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting shapecity:</div><div class="quote_post">This move made little sense to me, especially since they drafted Leon Powe and then traded him to the Celtics. Leon Powe is younger, cheaper and has a lot of upside. He could have played the limited backup minutes at PF for the Nuggets without costing the team much.

    Instead they bring in Joe Smith who's been plagued with injuries, is overpaid, and is nearing the end of his career. On top of it, they lose their best perimeter defender left in Ruben Patterson. This team has taken a step backward in the offseason and I wouldn't be surprised to see Denver not making it to the playoffs next season.

    The better decision would have been keeping Powe and making an offer to retain Reggie Evans.</div>

    Expiring contract. I seriously doubt they keep him after this season.
     
  7. og15

    og15 JBB *********

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting Moo2K4:</div><div class="quote_post">I think Smith is going to have trouble finding minutes this year. The frontcourt is already pretty crowded with Nene, Martin, and Camby. Unless Nene ends up as the backup center, which is possible, Smith will have problems finding minutes at the PF.</div>
    Can we almost pencil in Camby and Martin to miss at least 15 games? Probably. Nene is already the backup C, he's a F/C, so he'll take about 15 mins there, get another 12-13 mins at PF. So there'll be few minutes for Joe when everyone is healthy, but since the two starters are likely to miss games, he'll get minutes.

    I see it being something like this for the PF/C rotation

    Camby 60 games, 33 MPG (1980)
    Kmart 65 games, 28 MPG (1820)
    Nene 78 games, 29 MPG (2262)
    Smith 71 games, 18 MPG (1278)

    So there'll be another 532 minutes at PF/C for Jamal Sampson, or if Nene is healthy he'll just be the bench/starter guy that plays 30+ MPG.


    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">This move made little sense to me, especially since they drafted Leon Powe and then traded him to the Celtics. Leon Powe is younger, cheaper and has a lot of upside. He could have played the limited backup minutes at PF for the Nuggets without costing the team much.

    Instead they bring in Joe Smith who's been plagued with injuries, is overpaid, and is nearing the end of his career. On top of it, they lose their best perimeter defender left in Ruben Patterson. This team has taken a step backward in the offseason and I wouldn't be surprised to see Denver not making it to the playoffs next season.

    The better decision would have been keeping Powe and making an offer to retain Reggie Evans.</div>
    Leon Powe would be a rookie and you're not sure what you're getting from him, I wouldn't trust that into the hands of a second round pick rookie. Also it's not like Leon doesn't have injury concerns of his own.

    Joe Smith is an expiring $6.8 million, first of all he's decent trade bait because of that, so he's not a long term commitment, he's a one year rental. Now, yes, Rubeun was also an expiring contract, but I don't like how Ruben fits into the team. He is their best perimeter defender, but problem is that he can't shoot and is their worst shooter. He'll have to be on with Carmelo a lot during the game to get useful minutes (if he only backs up SF, there's only 11 MPG there), and his inability to shoot hurts them more offensively than his defense helps them.

    I hope everyone saw how attrocious this team looked in the playoffs. In addition to that, they do need a backup at PF because of all the uncertainties they have. KMart's health is in question, Nene's could also possibly be a problem, Najera is undersized and also seems to get injured a lot, not sure if you'll actually sign Evans, and don't want to overpay, and you have no clue what you'll get from Kleiza who all in all is also a 6'8 guy. So they need a starting quality PF in case anything happens, not really a backup. Now Joe does have some injury concerns from last season, but before last season he played 76 and 74 games, so I'd have more trust in that.

    If Camby and Kmart are both out, you're starting frontcourt is:
    PF: Joe Smith
    C: Nene

    Not too many teams would cry about having that kind of starting frontcourt. If you have Patterson, and still no Evans, it's:
    PF: Najera?/Kleiza
    C: Nene
    So the two guys you'd have coming off the bench in the other lineup are not starting.

    Lastly, going back to the trade bait idea, teams are more likely (not sure, but possibly) to be looking for a nice big like Joe than a Ruben Patterson. So with Joe, you also have a nicer piece to use to try and get that shooter at SG that you need.

    Not a perfect trade, but not really a big deal thing, there's positives either way it went. I prefer the positives in trading Ruben. I'm not saying you can easily replace Ruben's defense, but you can find defensive players to compensate, especially since Ruben is not the stopper he thinks he is, more so at SG at least. With Carmelo, he'd have to be guarding SG's, not SF's, and you're basically putting two SF's on the court together.
     
  8. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    You make some good points og15, but I still don't see any benefit for the Nuggets acquiring Joe Smith and losing Patterson at the same time. I could understand this trade a little more if the Nuggets had resigned Greg Buckner or still had Watson on the roster, but without those two they no longer have a player capable of defending an opposing team's best perimeter scorer.

    Ruben Patterson can't shoot from long range, but he does create mismatch problems because of his ability to score in the paint and finish at the basket. The Nuggets fed off of his energy when he stepped on the court and he brought some toughness to this team.

    Leon Powe is a rookie, but there's no guarantee what Joe Smith is going to do for you either. Anytime a player has to transition onto a new roster it takes time to develop chemistry and find a role. The difference here is Powe costs a fraction of Smith's contract, and I don't think I'd be out on a limb to say Powe would put up comparable numbers to Smith on a per minute basis.

    I also don't understand the concept of renting Joe Smith for a season. The Nuggets are not going to win a title this year so what's the benefit of renting Joe Smith?

    They would be better off developing Powe or Kleiza while they continue to build the team around their young core.
     

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